19 September 2024

Address to the Australian Conference on Science and Mathematics Education, University of Canberra

Note

Teaching statistics: setting students up for success

I acknowledge the Ngunnawal elders, on whose traditional lands we meet today, and pay respect to all First Nations people present.

In today’s data‑driven world, understanding statistics is more crucial than ever. Statistics provide us with the tools to interpret and make sense of the vast amounts of information we encounter daily. Once you start seeing the world through a statistical lens, it’s hard to unsee. Like Neo’s red pill in The Matrix, a data‑informed life allows you to see numbers everywhere and make better decisions.

From predicting market trends to making informed health decisions, statistical literacy equips individuals with the ability to analyse data, identify patterns, and draw meaningful conclusions.

Mastering statistics is not just a chance to excel at university or school. For future generations, it is a powerful and useful tool which can be used throughout life. Statistics provides an empirical framework for understanding the world and solving its problems.

Whether in business, healthcare, technology, or social sciences, the ability to understand and apply statistical concepts sets people up for success by enabling them to make evidence‑based decisions, solve complex problems, and innovate in their respective fields.

As parents and educators, we can help young people learn how to navigate and use data effectively to make informed decisions. And we can remind them of some of the extraordinary role models who have used data to understand the world around us.

One of the most pivotal decisions students face in the journey of education is selecting their academic subjects. This choice not only shapes their immediate learning experience but also lays the foundation for their future careers. Understanding statistics plays a crucial role in this process, providing students with the tools to make informed and strategic decisions about their studies.

Statistics offer insights into how different subjects are scaled, how they contribute to university entrance rankings, and how they align with students’ strengths and interests. By analysing data on past performance, success rates, and career outcomes, students can choose subjects that maximize their potential and open doors to a wide range of opportunities.

Statistical literacy also helps students understand the broader implications of their choices, from the likelihood of achieving their desired university placements to the long‑term benefits of certain fields of study. Statistics can help people to consider their options to make informed decisions about their next steps.

As a former economics professor, I have seen how a grounding in statistics can help students achieve their goals in any field.

Core skills in mathematics or statistics can lead to unexpected opportunities and can open doors to diverse careers.

The most recent Census shows the top industries employing people with qualifications in Mathematical Sciences.

Twenty per cent of those with a qualification in mathematical sciences were employed in the professional, scientific and technical services industry. Many are software engineers and machine learning engineers. In that case, they use algorithms and statistical models to develop intelligent systems.

Market research analysts use statistical techniques to understand consumer behaviour and market trends.

Nineteen per cent of people with a qualification in mathematical sciences were employed in education and training, split across tertiary education, preschool, and school education. Teachers – like so many of you in this room – teach statistics and use statistical tools to analyse student performance data and help develop classroom strategies.

Fifteen per cent of those with a qualification in mathematical sciences were employed in financial and insurance services. Financial analysts use statistical techniques to evaluate investment opportunities and guide businesses in making strategic financial decisions.

Eight per cent of people with a qualification in mathematical sciences were employed in public administration and safety work. In these fields, statistics help understand the impact of existing policies and predict the outcomes of proposed changes. This ensures policies are based on solid evidence and can effectively address public needs.

Six per cent of those with a qualification in mathematical sciences were employed in the health care and social assistance industry sector. Doctors need to understand data from their patients, including from wearables such as smart watches, and how to interpret findings from the latest medical research. Statistics are also crucial in monitoring public health trends, such as the spread of infectious diseases, vaccination rates, and the impact of public health interventions.

Understanding how to collect and use data extends beyond STEM disciplines into digital media, business studies, and physical education courses.

Environmental scientists use statistics to model environmental phenomena and propose solutions to issues like climate change and pollution.

Athletes use performance statistics to identify areas for improvement. These metrics can include speed, agility, and endurance, which are essential for optimising athletic performance.

Entrepreneurs selling on e‑commerce platforms use statistics to analyse online shopping behaviour, optimise website design, and personalise marketing efforts.

Content creators use statistics to make data‑driven decisions, improve their content, and build stronger connections with their audience.

As you can see in many careers, statistics help identify trends, forecast outcomes, and optimise strategies for success.

Similarly, when it comes to maintaining a healthy lifestyle, statistics play a crucial role.

In our quest for a healthier lifestyle, we are often bombarded with information and advice. Navigating this sea of data can be overwhelming, but understanding statistics provides a tool for cutting through the noise, identifying credible information, and applying evidence‑based insights to our daily lives.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics found only one in 6 young people did at least 60 minutes of daily physical activity and only one in 3 undertook any level of daily physical activity. This is a significant concern, as regular exercise is essential for both mental and physical health.

They also found that only 4 per cent of school aged children met the minimum fruit and vegetable recommendations from the National Health and Medical Research Council (ABS, 2023).

By understanding statistical data, we can make better diet, exercise, and overall well‑being choices. For instance, statistics can reveal the benefits of regular physical activity, the risks associated with certain dietary habits, and the impact of lifestyle choices on long‑term health outcomes. Randomised trials of different diets and exercise programs provide causal evidence on what kinds of food and activity is best for our health.

All of us can benefit from the insights from randomised trials. For example, I injured my hamstring last week, and when I went to see a physio on Monday, she immediately put me on the Askling Protocol. In a 2013 randomised trial, Carl Askling and his co-authors showed that 3 eccentric loading and lengthening exercises produced a faster recovery from hamstring injuries than an alternative rehabilitation protocol (Askling, Tengvar and Thorstensson, 2013). We’ll see how long it takes me to recover, but I’m buoyed by the fact that the protocol I’m following got elite European footballers back into the game twice as quickly.

Statistical literacy empowers us to critically evaluate health claims and make decisions based on scientific evidence.

In Australia, 25,000 people within the general population experience out‑of‑hospital cardiac arrests each year, and ischaemic heart disease is the leading cause of death (ABS 2023; Heart Foundation 2023). Medical research has demonstrated that increasing physical activity even by 10 minutes a day can reduce the risk of heart disease and heart attacks.

However, some people have drawn on deaths during major sports events such as the Sydney City to Surf or the Cross Fit Games as examples of the harm of rigorous exercise. While tragic cases of sudden cardiac death among athletes are emotionally impactful, they are also statistically rare. You’re much more likely to die from not exercising than from exercising.

Statistics can also help young people understand the nutritional content of different foods and make healthier dietary choices.

Energy and sports drinks have become a staple in the lives of many people, and national consumption has grown by 3.3 per cent in the last year that the Australian Bureau of Statistics measured them (Australian Bureau of Statistics, 2024). The high caffeine and sugar content in energy drinks can lead to a range of health issues including sleep disturbances, headaches, stomach aches, and hyperactivity (Alcohol and Drug Foundation, 2021).

By helping people find factual and informative data – and by teaching people to interpret that data – we are investing in a healthier future.

Vigilance in identifying and avoiding misinformation not only helps maintain a healthy lifestyle but also empowers individuals to educate others and foster a well‑informed community.

Understanding statistics is crucial in an era when misinformation spreads rapidly. Statistics provide us with the tools to critically evaluate the validity and reliability of data. This is essential in discerning credible information from misinformation, which often relies on misleading or selectively chosen data.

Statistical literacy helps us identify biases in data presentation and interpretation. Misinformation often exploits cognitive biases and statistical fallacies to mislead audiences. By understanding these biases, we can recognise and challenge misleading claims.

Moreover, statistics enable us to understand the context in which data is presented. This includes recognising the difference between correlation and causation, understanding sample sizes, and interpreting margins of error, all of which are often manipulated in misinformation.

With a solid grasp of statistics, we are empowered to fact‑check claims by comparing them against reliable data sources. This is particularly important in debunking false information and verifying the accuracy of reported statistics.

This was often demonstrated during the pandemic, with people presenting data about COVID‑19 case numbers or vaccine efficacy out of context or selectively reported to support anti‑vaccination agendas.

As we look to inspire young people to choose number‑crunching careers, it’s worth telling the stories of some of the people – here and overseas, who have harnessed the power of statistics to advocate for social progress and understand the world.

Taylah Gray, a Wiradjuri woman and law student, advocates for Indigenous rights and justice using data on Indigenous incarceration rates and health disparities. Her advocacy is informed by statistical evidence, which she uses to highlight systemic issues and push for policy change.

Macinley Butson was the first Australian to win the 2017 INTEL International Science and Engineering Award in its 67‑year history for their invention of Smart Armour. This device protects the non‑treated breast from radiotherapy in breast cancer patients.

Esther Duflo co‑founded the Abdul Latif Jameel Poverty Action Lab, or J‑PAL, at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, is a global research centre dedicated to conducting randomised trials to find effective solutions to poverty. The lab’s work spans various sectors, including health, education, and financial inclusion, and has provided invaluable insights that guide policymakers and practitioners worldwide.

A prominent epidemiologist, Fiona Stanley has extensively used statistics in her child and maternal health research. Her work with the Western Australian Maternal and Child Health Research Database has provided critical insights into the causes of birth defects and other health issues, leading to improved health policies and practices.

Nate Silver, the founder of FiveThirtyEight, uses statistics to analyse everything from election outcomes to sports performance. Silver’s new book, On the Edge, looks at the benefit of understanding risk, drawing analogies between poker players, venture capitalists and effective altruists – all of whom live along what he dubs ‘the river’.

The psychologist Daniel Kahneman’s work explored the cognitive biases that influence our decision‑making processes. Kahneman used a wealth of statistical data to illustrate the differences between our intuitive, fast thinking and our more deliberate, slow thinking. If you only read one book about decision making in your life, make it Thinking, Fast and Slow.

In the endlessly entertaining book Everybody Lies, Seth Stephens‑Davidowitz analysed Google search data to reveal insights that traditional surveys often miss. For example, his research on mental health trends shows that searches related to anxiety and depression spike during certain times of the year.

Claudia Goldin, who won last year’s Nobel prize in economics, studies the way that career and family interact. Her data analysis shows that one of the largest determinants of the gender pay gap is the so‑called ‘motherhood penalty’. Goldin argues that the problem lies in what she dubs ‘greedy jobs’, which are roles that cannot be combined with caring duties. Fewer greedy jobs means a fairer society.

In conclusion, statistics are not just numbers on a page but the backbone of successful decision‑making and critical thinking.

A solid understanding of statistics will be essential for future generations in navigating an increasingly complex world. Whether it’s making health‑conscious choices, advocating for social change, or driving innovation in technology and business, statistical literacy empowers individuals to analyse data, identify trends, and make evidence‑based decisions.

Whether you’re choosing a university course, solving global poverty or recovering from a hamstring injury, statistics can help. From Taylah Gray to Claudia Goldin, there are plenty of role models who show that data analysis can be fun as well as important.

Thank you for the work that you do in teaching young Australians that statistics not only help us to understand the world, but are also a powerful tool to shape a better society.

References

Alcohol and Drug Foundation (2021). Energy drinks—Do they really give you wings? – Alcohol and Drug Foundation. [online] adf.org.au. Available at: https://adf.org.au/insights/energy‑drinks/.

Askling, C.M., Tengvar, M. and Thorstensson, A., 2013. Acute hamstring injuries in Swedish elite football: a prospective randomised controlled clinical trial comparing 2 rehabilitation protocols. British Journal of Sports Medicine, 47(15), pp.953–959.

Australian Bureau of Statistics (2023). National Health Survey, 2022. [online] www.abs.gov.au. Available at: https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/health/health‑conditions‑and‑risks/national‑health‑survey/latest‑release.

Australian Bureau of Statistics (2023). Causes of death, Australia. [online] Australian Bureau of Statistics. Available at: https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/health/causes‑death/causes‑death‑australia/latest‑release.

Australian Bureau of Statistics (2024). Australians consuming fewer vegetables, fruit and less milk. [online] Available at: https://www.abs.gov.au/media‑centre/media‑releases/australians‑consuming‑fewer‑vegetables‑fruit‑and‑less‑milk.

Heart Foundation (2023). Australia to build world’s largest sudden cardiac arrest registry. [online] Available at: https://www.heartfoundation.org.au/media‑releases/worlds‑largest‑sudden‑cardiac‑arrest‑registry.