SUBJECTS: Newspoll, national account figures, independents, Petro Georgiou.
FRAN KELLY:
Joining us in our Parliament House studio now, our two weekly guests: Financial Services Minister, Chris Bowen, and Shadow Education Minister, Christopher Pyne. And they've both promised to not yell over the top of each other this morning. Gentlemen, good morning.
CHRIS BOWEN:
Good morning.
CHRISTOPHER PYNE:
Good morning.
KELLY:
Chris Bowen, let's start
PYNE:
I'm being very good already.
KELLY:
Yes, that's very good.
Chris Bowen, I'm going to start with you this week. This week's Newspoll showed voters leaving Labor and the Coalition to vote for the Greens in quite large numbers. What's Bob Brown got that Kevin Rudd doesn't?
BOWEN:
Well, when you're in the Greens you can, of course, take a different approach than if you're the Government or the Opposition because you can say things and do things and know that you're not actually going to be the Government, and that helps from time to time. But look, Fran -
KELLY:
Yes, but the voters aren't silly. They know that the Greens won't be the Government.
BOWEN:
Sure, and look, I've said on this show, I've said elsewhere, that this election's going to be tight and that part of that is what you're seeing: an increase in support in the Greens. That's to be expected, but this election's going to be tight. Either side could win and you're going to see a bit more up and down bumpiness in the polls between now and election day.
KELLY:
Chris Pyne, to win those votes back for the Coalition, some of those primary votes that are parked with the Greens or gone to the Greens - we'll have to wait and see a trend line there - Tony Abbott would need to present himself as left of Labor. Is that possible?
PYNE:
Well, Fran, the political scene is in a state of flux, and that's why people are parking their vote with the Greens and they're polling 16 per cent, because people are in transition. They're very disappointed with the Government. They wanted the Government to be good. They voted for them almost three years ago because they wanted to see a positive change and they didn't get it. They've had a very disappointing government with a Prime Minister who they have lost faith in.
So they are in a state of transition, so they're moving to the Greens while they consider where they will vote on election day. In the most honest assessment of the polls, the Coalition hasn't yet won them and Labor has lost them but could get them back. The next election Labor will obviously start favourites, but it's an election the Coalition could win and it will be a very interesting two or three months.
KELLY:
Chris Bowen, do you agree with that? Basically, you know, the voters have lost faith with the Prime Minister? I mean, the basic question for you is has a Government ever won an election in this country with a primary vote of just 35 per cent?
BOWEN:
Well, the answer to your first question is no, and the Prime Minister is still very significantly, by a significant margin, preferred Prime Minister, and he's actually preferred Prime Minister by a greater margin than, take for example, John Howard was over Mark Latham at a similar point in the cycle.
KELLY:
Sure, and it's dropping fast. I mean, you have to concede that. Let's go to the primary vote.
BOWEN:
Look, he's returned to more normal levels. He had stratospheric levels of popularity and preferred Prime Minister status; levels which were frankly unsustainable, a higher rate of popularity for a longer period of time than any Prime Minister in living memory. I mean, Bob Hawke had very high levels, but they didn't last as long as Kevin Rudd's.
KELLY:
Alright. As I say, they're dropping fast for Kevin Rudd.
BOWEN:
They lasted a long time and a lot of people got used to them. Some hardheads thought, 'This won't last', and it's not lasted. As he's made decisions which annoyed people, which is what Prime Ministers do if they're doing their job, his popularity rating's returned to more normal levels. He's still significantly preferred as Prime Minister, which I think some of our commentators seem to gloss over, by a significant margin, and I've looked at the figures. For example, he was preferred over John Howard as preferred Prime Minister as Leader of the Opposition. John Howard was preferred Prime Minister over Mark Latham by a lesser margin than Kevin Rudd is preferred over Tony Abbott. Now, as I've said, this election is tight.
KELLY:
Let me ask you again about the primary vote.
BOWEN:
Well, the primary vote is down in that poll, but polls go up and down from time to time. It's what happens. All the indications are that the two party preferred vote is tight. Some have a slight lead to us; some have it 50-50. But look, this election will be tight. There's no question of that.
KELLY:
Has a Government ever won an election with a primary vote of 35 per cent?
BOWEN:
Well, I'd have to go back and look at all the figures.
PYNE:
I think the answer to that is no.
BOWEN:
Does that mean you're going to win, Chris?
PYNE:
That's not what I'm suggesting. The Labor party's primary vote is very low, but there's one thing I'll pick Chris Bowen up on and that is he said that the reason why Kevin Rudd had a disapproval of minus 18 is because he's been making the tough decisions. I mean, that's not the reason at all. The reason why he's unpopular and has a net negative 18 is because he won't make any decisions and he's broken 57 promises that he made before the 2007 election. People are very disappointed in him. People feel that he's let them down. They've lost faith in him. They don't believe him anymore, and that's why his figures have dropped, not because he's this rough, tough Prime Minister that makes big decisions. He actually abandoned his policy of an emissions trading scheme because he ran from the fight. That's why he's in more trouble than General Custer.
BOWEN:
You also promised an emissions trading scheme at the last election, Chris, and you dropped it. We've responded -
PYNE:
So you think it's been a blip on the horizon, do you?
BOWEN:
I thought we said we weren't going to shout over each other today.
KELLY:
Okay, let me shout over the top of you for a second, Christopher Pyne, just to pick you up on that, because you do have a rough, tough leader, and the voters aren't seeming to be loving him either much. In fact, Tony Abbott told your party room on Tuesday that, quote, 'The election will be competitive. Large elements of the public still hope Rudd succeeds because they elected him less than three years ago.' Let me put that to both of you. Do you think that there's a sentiment out there, the voters actually don't want to be proven wrong, they're reluctant to not give a Government a second term?
PYNE:
Is that to me?
KELLY:
Christopher?
PYNE:
I don't want to talk over Mr Bowen.
KELLY:
Christopher?
PYNE:
Thanks, Fran. Look, there is certainly a sentiment that they wanted the government they elected to succeed and they wanted Kevin Rudd to keep his promises. And so therefore Labor starts favourite for the election because a one term government hasn't been kicked out for 78 years. So you'd have to say that Labor is in the pole position, and everyone knows that. The reason why the public want the Government to succeed is because they [inaudible] with them in 2007 and thought, 'We'll go with Labor and we'll give them a go; they seemed to have a lot of ideas', and they wanted a change.
But we've already seen 57 broken promises since before the last election. I think the biggest of them all, of course, was that they'd be fiscal conservatives and now we have a $96 billion debt and a $57 billion deficit. So look, I think the public is very disappointed in the Government and they are considering change, and they are looking at the opposition and we have to give them reasons between now and election day to think that we are a genuine alternative government.
KELLY:
Okay.
PYNE:
That's our challenge.
KELLY:
Chris Bowen - we should just mention there that there has been the global financial crisis in this time - but Chris Bowen, is that what Labor's picking up, that there is a reluctance in the electorate to ditch Labor after one term because they voted for you, but they're not happy?
BOWEN:
Well, no, I wouldn't necessarily characterise it that way. I think the public give us a tick for economic management. They know that we've had the global financial crisis and Australia has come through better than most other economies. They know we had to act, we had to do what we had to do. They know the Liberal Party stood against that and even if you look at the national account figures from yesterday, if there wasn't stimulus in the economy, the economy could well still be in negative territory. Tony Abbott said, 'Let's do what New Zealand did' and they had five quarters of consecutive growth in unemployment, significantly higher than ours.
I think the Australian people give us a tick for economic management. They also want us to get on with the job. They're saying, 'Okay, you've done that. Now tell us about your forward agenda', and that's what we're in the process of doing. So there's no question that when you're in government, as a first term government, you have a difficult job, particularly when you've replaced a longstanding government. There's a lot of built up expectation. There's a lot of people with a lot of expectation on the new government and first term governments traditionally have a lot of trouble dealing with those expectations.
KELLY:
Okay.
BOWEN:
And that's why first term governments often come very close to being defeated.
PYNE:
First term governments have big problems dealing with expectations when they make 57 promises that they break.
KELLY:
Alright. Okay.
BOWEN:
I'm more than happy to have our record in delivering promises compared to any other government and we'll come out very well in that comparison.
KELLY:
It's 8.15 on RN Breakfast and our guests this morning in Polls Apart are Chris Bowen and Christopher Pyne. Let me ask you both about the notion of a hung Parliament, because the polls are suggesting that it's not such a far-out idea. Chris Bowen, do you think it's possible and would you trust the three independents we have there at the moment in the Lower House of Rob Oakeshott, Tony Windsor and Bob Katter, to do the right thing?
BOWEN:
Well, I don't want to get too much into hypotheticals, Fran. Having said that this election could go either way, then certainly a hung Parliament is also a possibility. Of course, that stands to reason, and of course if there were a hung Parliament, both sides would be discussing the situation with the independents. I know some of the independents very well. Rob Oakeshott and Tony Windsor, in particular, I've known for 10 years. They are decent, honourable people who put the interests of their constituencies first. Three out of - well, in fact all four - but three out of the four, in particular, independents in the current Parliament left the conservative parties in disgust at their policies. Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott left the National Party in New South Wales because they were very concerned about the future of the National Party and their lack of progressive policies. They are men genuinely in the centre and they are people who would weigh their responsibilities very seriously.
But other than that, I think we're really getting ahead of ourselves and going into hypotheticals as to what would occur and how it would occur.
KELLY:
Okay. Christopher Pyne, a hung Parliament?
PYNE:
I have a rare moment of agreement with Chris Bowen. I think it's a very hypothetical question. I think it's highly unlikely, but if it ended up with no party having enough seats to form a Government on its own then the four independents - because of course there's Michael Johnson as well in Ryan, if he's re-elected - are all in non-Labor seats and I assume that that would weigh on their minds.
KELLY:
Christopher -
PYNE:
None of them are strong Labor people, by any means. They're all either sort of Country Party or Liberal people, and I know them pretty well too. So I'd be very surprised if they voted with the Labor Party to form a Government.
KELLY:
Okay.
PYNE:
That's all for the exciting few days after an election, and if the Liberals do that well, that we are in the situation where there's a hung Parliament.
KELLY:
Alright
PYNE:
It's still the case that Labor is the favourite.
KELLY:
I'm winding you up because we're just about out of time. You've got the final words today, a very brief comment, because we are out of time. Petro Georgiou, your colleague, a moderate in a shrinking band of moderates in your party, gives his valedictory speech today.
PYNE:
Petro is a very fine gentleman, a very dear friend of mine. I'm sorry that he's leaving the Parliament, but everyone has to choose their time of departure, especially if you can. It's a luxury in politics that most people don't get, and I wish him the absolute best in the future. He has been a great contributor to the national Parliament, and he and Roxanne deserve to have great happiness into the future.
KELLY:
Alright. Christopher Pyne, Chris Bowen, thanks very much for joining us.
BOWEN:
Nice to talk to you, Fran.