SUBJECTS: Tony Abbott's backflip on 'famous victory' quote, leadership, polls, Resource Super Profits Tax, Greens preferences, Afghanistan
FRAN KELLY:
Joining me in the Parliament House studio, squeezed into the Parliament House studio this morning, Financial Services Minister, Chris Bowen, and Shadow Education Minister, Christopher Pyne. Good morning to you both.
CHRIS BOWEN:
Good morning.
CHRISTOPHER PYNE:
Good morning, Fran.
KELLY:
Christopher Pyne, what did you hear from your leader in the joint party room yesterday?
PYNE:
What Tony told the party room yesterday was that we needed to be disciplined, we needed to remain focused, and we needed to present a positive alternative to the Government as the election approached, and if we did all of that, then the enormous challenge of turfing out a Government after one term was certainly achievable but we were a long way from victory and there shouldn't be any euphoria.
KELLY:
He said you're a long way from victory.
PYNE:
We had a long way to go, I think was the words he used.
KELLY:
Did he say victory is within your 'ready grasp'?
PYNE:
Not to my recollection, but, I mean, people have often different interpretations of what somebody says and sometimes they can be more colourful than others.
KELLY:
Did he say perhaps more innocuously that potentially you're in reach of a famous victory?
PYNE:
Well, he has said for some time that the next election is winnable. Every election is winnable, but certainly the Government starts with a 17 seat buffer, thanks to the redistribution. They've only been in government for one term and the last Government that was defeated after one terms was 78 years ago. They have all the resources of the taxpayer at their disposal and the public service to [inaudible] against the Opposition, so certainly the odds are stacked against us. But I think the people have so fallen out of love with Kevin O'Lemon that we have a chance of winning the next election.
KELLY:
And that's how things feel in your seat and across South Australia, in your state?
PYNE:
Certainly in the last six months the mood in my electorate has changed very dramatically, and since the Government tried to introduce a great big new tax on mining, I think in many respects that's been the final straw with voters, particularly in South Australia, Western Australia and Queensland, which have a heavy reliance on mining. And that comes on top, of course, on them ditching the emissions trading scheme, which I think suggested to people that Mr Rudd doesn't actually stand for anything at all. The pink batts fiasco, the school halls debacle, and so on and so forth.
KELLY:
Chris Bowen, what about the mood in your caucus yesterday, because now we hear that a couple of weeks ago, the PM sent his Chief of Staff out to talk to people like you and caucus members to find out whether they still supported the PM. Did you get a visit from the Chief of Staff?
BOWEN:
Well, Fran, there's a lot of media speculation about leadership change. Why would you change leaders when you have a Prime Minister who got Australia through the global financial crisis? Why would you change leaders when you have a Prime Minister who is working hard on health reform, something too hard for the previous Government; who is working with Stephen Conroy on delivering an NBN; who has delivered paid parental leave, something that the previous Government couldn't get around to; who's focused on the future? So we're getting on with the job.
KELLY:
So is that a yes? You did get an approach from Alister Jordan?
BOWEN:
I thinkthis week just shows we're getting on with the job.
PYNE:
Answer the question.
BOWEN:
Paid parental leave, welfare reform and NBN. We're getting on with the job and all this media speculation – I understand journalists have to have something to write about, it's all very interesting, it's all exciting – it's going on in the media; it's not going on in the party room.
KELLY:
Well, it is pretty interesting if a first term Prime Minister is sending out his Chief of Staff to test the loyalty of his troops. Now, here we are. We're all gathered here in this small Parliament House studio. Just let us in on the secret. Did Alister Jordan canvas your support for the PM?
BOWEN:
No. I talk to Alister, of course, regularly, about a whole range of things, but the answer to that question is no.
KELLY:
Okay. What about the mood in the electorate more broadly, because there's been some more tragic polling for Labor in marginal seat polling, which seems to be where the focus is now, showing, you know, you'd be wiped out in at least one seat, the seat of Lindsay, I think it's a 12 per cent swing against the Government, mainly due to asylum seekers. In Queensland, the mining tax is killing you. We've got another Galaxy poll out suggesting the ETS to the left is really hurting you in inner city seats in Brisbane. Does any of this match with what you're feeling in the electorate or does it surprise you?
BOWEN:
Look, as I've said, Fran, we came to office with an ambitious agenda. We had a lot to do. We wanted to reform education, health, and we had an ambitious agenda across the board. And we've checked a lot of that. Some people are expressing frustration that we haven't achieved more, and we get that message. We understand that they want us to continue on that agenda and they want us to lay out a second term agenda, which we'll do. So we get that frustration, we understand that and we're responding to that.
This election will be tough. I think it would be better if Tony Abbott, before he declared victory at yesterday's caucus meeting, actually issued a policy. Call me old fashioned, but I think that would be a nice thing to do if he wants to win the election. But this election will be close. We understand people's frustration. We get that message. People say, 'Yes, you've done a good job in managing the economy, you got us through the global financial crisis, we recognise that, tick for that, but tell us your second term agenda.' And that's what we're in the process of doing.
KELLY:
Christopher Pyne, just on that. I never, never thought I'd see the day where Tony Abbott was presenting as a small target.
PYNE:
Well, we're not presenting as a small target, Fran.
KELLY:
Pretty quiet in the last few weeks.
PYNE:
No, no, we've put out policies all year. We have the, we're the only party –
KELLY:
In the last few weeks, there's been very little from Tony Abbott and very little from you for that matter, really.
PYNE:
Not true. I mean, I'm – so I've been hiding from the press? That'll come as a revelation to my colleagues. Newsflash: Pyne hides from media. No, the –
KELLY:
Sounds like a headline from The Onion. Go on.
PYNE:
We've been putting out policies all year. We're the only party with a climate change action policy, for example, since the Government ditched the emissions trading scheme. We're the ones with a climate change action policy. Of course, we have a more generous paid parental leave scheme. Tony Abbott's green army policy has been out for some time. We have a policy on the mining tax, which is that we'll scrap it. That's our policy on the mining tax. We've also got a policy to cut spending, unlike the Labor Party, who are addicted to spending. So the contrasts are there for people to choose at the next election. They can either go with a Government that's addicted to spending and funds it by new taxes, or they can vote for an Opposition that will cut taxes and cut spending.
BOWEN:
Fran, it's an interesting point you raise, because there was one poll out this week showing that 47 per cent of voters said the Liberal Party would have a better chance of winning if they dumped Tony Abbott as leader. I think the Liberal Party must be getting that message because he is on the witness protection program, he's in hiding, and I think they wheel him out at Question Time to ask one question and then cryogenically freeze him again because every time he talks he loses Liberal Party votes.
KELLY:
I'm not sure you should be raising the topic of changing leaders right now.
BOWEN:
Well, you know, it's just an interesting point that –
PYNE:
What I want to know is the guy in caucus who stood up yesterday in the Labor Party and said nobody discuss the leadership. Don't mention the war! Don't mention the leadership!
KELLY:
Okay.
BOWEN:
As you know, you're not welcome at our caucus [inaudible].
PYNE:
[inaudible] so it must be true.
KELLY:
Okay. The inner workings of both the party rooms remain a mystery, I must say, to all of us today. Look, I want to move through a couple of things quite quickly. There's just a few minutes left. On the mining tax, Laura Tingle in the Fin Review, Chris Bowen suggests that there are big changes afoot. For instance, that the low value resources, including clay, sand, gravel, rock and limestone are expected to be dumped from the tax regime and the Government could be making big, big concessions on where the tax cuts in.
BOWEN:
Well, this is speculation, Fran.
KELLY:
Can you confirm?
BOWEN:
No, there you go, I'm sorry –
PYNE:
Confirm or deny.
BOWEN:
- to disappoint you, Fran, but there's no exclusive on Polls Apart this morning. We've been involved in extensive discussions, despite the commentary of some people that there hasn't been real consultation. There's been about 265 hours of meetings with the Treasury, between mining companies and the Treasury. That's not counting meetings with the Prime Minister, the Treasurer and the Resources Minister. They've been very extensive discussions. We've been open to constructive feedback and we'll be responding when we're in a position to, but I'm not going to get into speculation about what that will involve.
KELLY:
And Christopher Pyne, you actually, the Coalition invited Andrew Forrest from the miners into your party room.
PYNE:
No, no, we had a party –
KELLY:
[inaudible] your party room?
PYNE:
No, we had a party meeting yesterday morning, which we do every Tuesday. There was a separate meeting later for those people who were interested in going to hear what Twiggy Forrest had to say, so I don't know how many people attended. I didn't attend, but it wasn't a routine party meeting.
KELLY:
Okay. A couple of issues now, briefly. Back to the polls, the level of polling in the published polls say Labor's primary vote is down around 35 per cent. Two party preferred and Labor edges ahead. We're looking at Green preferences for Labor to get across the line in that poll. Christopher Pyne, is the Coalition doing anything to woo Green preferences?
PYNE:
Look, Fran, our enemy is the Labor Party. Our opponent is Labor. We think they are the ones that are damaging the economy with the mining tax and with their other changes, so they are our opponents. We won't be having an particular, as far as I'm aware, any particular strategy about the Greens. We'll leave it up to the Greens to distribute their own preferences. They always do. I think Greens voters are famous for being ones who don't follow how to vote cards and put their preferences where they think they should best be put. And the Coalition is focused on the Labor Party and Kevin O'Lemon.
KELLY:
Chris Bowen, you're pretty savvy on these matters when it comes to how the polling is looking. Do you think an 80/20 split of Green preferences for Labor is probably over-egging it?
BOWEN:
Well, Fran, time will tell where Green preferences will go. Green voters, of course, as Christopher said, I agree, like to make their own decisions on these things. I think they'll bear in mind the fact that although they might have a different approach to us and they might disagree with some of the things we've done, we do believe in climate change, we believe it's real. Tony Abbott wanders around telling schoolkids in poor old Christopher's electorate that it was hotter in Jesus' day so therefore climate change isn't real. I think they'll bear all those facts in mind and they'll make their mind up at the time.
KELLY:
Can we finish today on a more dignified note and of course, the tragic news this week of three soldiers killed in Afghanistan. Chris Bowen, this news coincided with the publication of an Essential poll, which showed that 61 per cent of voters want the troops withdrawn. Is support for the commitment in Afghanistan waning, and obviously the mounting casualties isn't helping?
BOWEN:
Look, I think it's understandable, Fran, that when we do have these casualties the Australian people reflect on this and reflect on the war and question that. I understand that and I accept that. We're committed to this. This is important. Afghanistan is the headquarters of terrorism. We've lost 100 Australians through terrorist activity and I understand the very important concerns of Australians about the loss of Australian troops. Of course we all feel that. We all feel that very deeply, but this is nevertheless a war that is necessary, and we have a defined mission and we need to complete that mission.
KELLY:
Christopher Pyne, I know there is bipartisan support for that mission, but the Opposition Leader Tony Abbott has also suggested that perhaps more Australian troops should be sent. Is that Coalition policy?
PYNE:
Look, I think Tony Abbott and I and the Coalition would all rather Australia wasn't involved in any wars. But the difficulty is that Afghanistan has been [inaudible] terrorism in the past against Australians and other western countries. We have a responsibility as one of those western countries to protect our people and we can't allow Afghanistan to be re-taken over by the Taliban and used as a base for terrorism and therefore –
KELLY:
More troops?
PYNE:
– we're fighting there for freedom and liberty, as we have for 110 years. We have a very proud tradition of supporting liberty and we'll continue to do so.
KELLY:
Alright. Christopher Pyne, Chris Bowen, thanks very much for joining us.
BOWEN:
Thanks, Fran.