SUBJECTS: Deaths of Australian soldiers in Afghanistan, Nielsen poll, Resource Super Profits Tax.
FRAN KELLY:
And our two regular pollies join us now: Financial Services Minister, Chris Bowen, and Shadow Education Minister, Christopher Pyne. Gentlemen, good morning.
CHRIS BOWEN:
Good morning, Fran. Good morning, Christopher.
CHRISTOPHER PYNE:
Morning, Fran. Morning, Chris.
KELLY:
Can we start this morning on the rather sombre topic at the moment of Afghanistan, because of course we've seen this week the deadliest day for Coalition forces in Afghanistan and two young Australian soldiers killed by a roadside bomb. Yesterday, the Defence Minister, John Faulkner warned us all that Afghanistan could become even more violent over coming months.
Can I ask you, Chris Bowen, are you worried about public opinion, public support for our commitments to Afghanistan?
BOWEN:
Well, of course any death such as these two yesterday do touch the nation's heartstrings. I think the population understands and accepts this is a war worth fighting, that there will be casualties along the way and that is a great tragedy, but it is all designed to avoid greater numbers of casualties and this is at the epicentre of our efforts to make the world a safer place. I think our hearts would all go out to the families of the soldiers yesterday, two young men who've had their lives cut short and I think the nation understands that these are the inevitable casualties of what is a very difficult situation in Afghanistan. I think they'll continue to understand that.
KELLY:
Christopher Pyne, your leader, Tony Abbott, has said in the fairly recent past that a Coalition Government would consider more troops to Afghanistan. Do you think that would be a popular move?
PYNE:
I don't think it would be a popular move, Fran.
KELLY:
Do you think it's the right move?
PYNE:
It might be the right decision. If we win the election in the coming months, that's a matter that the new Defence Minister will discuss with the Defence chiefs, Tony Abbott, the Foreign Minister and so forth.
This is the age old question – of course, I join Chris Bowen in giving my deepest sympathies to the families of the young men who have been killed, which is a terrible tragedy – but the age old question which President Kennedy used to pose is whether totalitarian regimes would always beat democracies because democracies have a respect for human life which totalitarian regimes don't. And it's been proven in the past that democracies have been much more resilient than sometimes we give them credit, and we usually do end up winning. And my view is in Afghanistan, we mustn't lose our resolve and mustn't allow the Taliban or the terrorists to win, and while that will mean tragedies on scales such as the one we've seen in the last 48 hours, we have to redouble our efforts to ensure that freedom and liberty is successful and dictatorship is not.
KELLY:
Okay. Well, Tony Abbott will have a hand in future policy there if you win the next election.
Chris Bowen, the Nielsen poll this week shows Labor absolutely tanking in the polls. You read those numbers in the Fairfax press on Monday. What did you think?
BOWEN:
Well, it was a disappointing poll for the Government, no question about that. We've known for some time we're going through a difficult period, and if that poll would translate, we would lose the election. Tony Abbott would become Prime Minister, Warren Truss would replace Julia Gillard as Deputy Prime Minister, Julie Bishop would be in charge of our place in the world and Barnaby Joyce would be sitting around the Cabinet table making big decisions.
KELLY:
You say that as though you think it's going to scare the voters away. Is that what you're trying to do?
BOWEN:
Well, no, I mean they're the alternative team. The election is a choice between alternatives. I don't think there's anything wrong in simply running through who the Opposition frontbench is, because I do think it's a risky proposition. I think that Labor Party massively outguns the Opposition in terms of its leadership team, and I don't think it's inappropriate in any way to point that out, that polls are showing us losing the election and these are the people who will be taking over.
And we have a record of achievement we are happy to point to. We will have a forward program that we'll be talking about during the election campaign and it's also about the Australian people making a choice. Who do you want in charge if there's another global financial crisis? Who do you want picking up the phone and taking the calls: Kevin Rudd and Wayne Swan or Tony Abbott and Joe Hockey? The people who got us through the last global financial crisis or the people who think we should follow New Zealand's lead and have a year full of recession? And that's the choice that the Australian people will make a judgement on later in the year.
KELLY:
Christopher Pyne, how did you react from that line coming from the Government in the wake of that poll, and do you think the Coalition should be nervous about its line-up?
PYNE:
Well, I'd simply make the point, Fran, that there are five former Cabinet Ministers in the Tony Abbott line-up, which is four more than within the Rudd line-up when they were elected three years ago. And I'd simply pick up the theme of Chris Bowen. If the Rudd Government is re-elected, Peter Garrett will continue to implement programs like the pink batts program, Julia Gillard will continue to have oversight over the school hall rip-off program, Chris Evans will continue to be protecting our borders under the boat people program, Penny Wong will continue to be implementing the now non-existent emissions trading scheme policy, and the list is endless. Chris Bowen himself, of course, I suppose he'll be breathing life back into FuelWatch and GroceryWatch.
So let's face it, this Government doesn't have a record of achievement. It has a record of incompetence and failure, and I think it would be very much to the Opposition's advantage to put up people like our Cabinet against the Rudd Government Cabinet, which has been an unmitigated failure. It's been worse than Whitlam.
KELLY:
Okay. Let's hear now from one of your colleagues: Andrew Robb is a former Minister, he's a former Liberal Party director, these days he's Shadow Finance Minister, speaking yesterday about how the voters see Kevin Rudd.
ROBB:
[grab] I think what we're seeing happen is that people voted for Kevin Rudd in good faith, with high expectations, and they've been disillusioned in the extreme. Yet they still voted for him. You know, in many respects, they'd like him to perform. In my view, by parking a vote with the Greens, they are trying to send him a message, and if he doesn't get the message they will come – a lot of them, I think – will come to us.
KELLY:
Chris Bowen, do you agree the voters want the PM to do better? And I guess the question is can he do better?
BOWEN:
Well, I think the fact is this, Fran. We came to office with an ambitious agenda, a big agenda. We set out to do a lot and despite Chris' spin and rhetoric, we have achieved a lot. We have a good, solid record of achievement: not only getting through the global financial crisis, but we can also point to the National Curriculum, Trades Training Centres, health reform, more nurses and GPs being trained, all those things we can point to.
But we accept that we haven't met everything we set out to do and the public are frustrated about that and are sending us a message that going forward, they'd like us to continue to work on our ambitious agenda. And there are some people who say we set out to do too much. That's a matter of opinion for some people, but we did set out to do a lot, and we have done a lot but we haven't achieved everything we set out to do. There has been a lot of Opposition obstructionism in the Senate, the Greens have opposed our agenda, we've had, of course, trouble in Copenhagen, but we have argued our agenda and we've achieved a lot. Now, people –
KELLY:
Is the arguing of the agenda, perhaps, is the problem? I mean, do you concede that the Prime Minister, for whatever reason, seems to have trouble connecting, or that dreadful phrase, cutting through with the electorate?
BOWEN:
No, I don't, Fran, and I think the commentariat is sometimes, frankly, a little bit fickle about this. I mean, it's not so long ago we had the great health debate down at the National Press Club where the Prime Minister comprehensively outcommunicated Tony Abbott against all expectations. And I concede – again, it comes back [inaudible] – Tony Abbott is good at a sound grab, he's good at spin and he's good at getting a line up. I concede that.
But when the pressure's on, he's very light on detail and the substance isn't there. So, I mean, I'd point to the health debate, I'd point to the week after the Budget when the Opposition Budget Reply made the Keystone Cops look like Scotland Yard. It just showed, frankly, they're not ready for Government…
KELLY:
Okay.
BOWEN:
We had Tony Abbott saying, 'Joe Hockey will get back to you shortly', then Joe Hockey saying, 'Andrew Robb will get back to you shortly', then we had a disastrous press conference from Andrew Robb, and it just showed that when it comes to communicating substance and detail, the Opposition is simply not ready for the task of Government.
KELLY:
Christopher Pyne, the latest polls do consistently seem to indicate that perhaps the voters back up Chris Bowen, what he said there, because they're not coming in behind Tony Abbott, are they? He's just as unpopular in the recent Nielsen poll as the Prime Minister.
PYNE:
Well, I think Chris Bowen sounded like a Government that's run out of ideas, run out of puff and full of excuses, and now, of course, running a fear campaign against the Opposition.
KELLY:
Well, why aren't the voters coming, flocking to Tony Abbott, then?
PYNE:
But that's what governments do after they've been in power for a long time and they run out of new plans. I mean, Chris Bowen has already reverted to a scare campaign against the Opposition because the Government's broken 57 promises since before the last election and hasn't delivered.
KELLY:
Okay, but I'm coming back with all of that. What about Tony Abbott? Why aren't the voters warming to him yet? Will they want him?
PYNE:
Well, I mean, I don't want to be a commentator on the polls, Fran. The reality –
KELLY:
Go on.
PYNE:
[laughs] The polls speak for themselves. The AC Nielsen poll was a very good poll for the Opposition. What it proves is the public have lost a lot of faith in Rudd-Gillard Government. But Opposition leaders don't usually poll very high ratings, especially Opposition leaders that are facing first elections after a Government has lost. Kevin Rudd was extremely popular before the last election, but we were going into an 11-and-a-half, 12th year of being in government. The most amazing part about the polls is how unpopular the Prime Minister has become and how quickly. I mean, it was only last December he was still in stratospheric heights of popularity. That's because he has let people down so badly and he doesn't seem to listen. I mean, Peter Walsh's attack on the Labor Party in the front page of The Australian today about how the greatest obstacle to consultation and good government in this country is Kevin Rudd, is devastating …
KELLY:
Okay.
PYNE:
… this is a former Finance Minister in the Hawke Labor Government.
KELLY:
I've got to interrupt you because it's that time again when we have to wind up. Last word to Chris Bowen: you're heading off to Perth for the Community Cabinet meeting tonight. The Government's support in WA has crashed, according to the Nielsen poll, off the back of the mining tax.
Can you give us a sense now of whether you think there will be a compromise on the mining profits tax before the election?
BOWEN:
Well, no doubt the situation in Western Australia is quite [inaudible], Fran. This is about the national interest. Sometimes politicians get accused of putting short term interests ahead of the long term interest. I don't think anybody can accuse us of doing that in relation to the Resource Super Profits Tax because it is not easy politics, it is very hard politics. But it's important policy.
No doubt the situation in Western Australia tonight could get quite [inaudible], and there'll be protests and all sorts of things organised by the mining lobby. But we'll stick to what we've said, which is we think this is an important reform for the future. We're more than happy to sit down with elements of the mining industry and talk through their concerns, and as every major reform entails, we'll do so in consultation with the industry. There are some people in the industry who think, 'Well, we're not going to pay any more tax and we'll stop this tax and we'll bring down the Government.' Well, we're just going to continue with the reform process and we're more than happy to talk those elements through in terms of implementation, of finer detail, with the elements of the mining industry that are more than happy to do so.
KELLY:
Do you ever get nervous about losing?
BOWEN:
I worry about every election all the time, Fran, and we never take anything for granted. But I think our record of achievement and our plan for the future will stand us in good stead.
KELLY:
Chris Bowen, Christopher Pyne, thank you very much for joining us.
PYNE:
Pleasure, thank you.
BOWEN:
Nice talking to you, Fran.