SUBJECTS: MYEFO, stimulus, Reserve Bank decision, Newspoll, asylum seekers, Melbourne Cup
MARIUS BENSON:
Chris Bowen, they were pretty good figures the Government was looking at in the mid-year review yesterday. What impact will they have on your stimulus spending now?
CHRIS BOWEN:
Well, these figures have shown that without the stimulus, Australia wouldn't have grown for the last two years and there would be a significant number more people unemployed. But we still have some way to go. Our unemployment rate is now forecast to peak at 6.75 per cent; that's dependent on stimulus remaining in place. That prediction is predicated on the stimulus remaining in place and of course it also implies a further increase of unemployment of around 105,000 people. So that's not to be taken lightly and that shows that our strategy of gradually withdrawing the stimulus is the correct one. Mr Turnbull and Mr Hockey's strategy of withdrawing stimulus immediately is the incorrect one.
BENSON:
And Australians will feel the impact of the better economic performance immediately at 2.30 this afternoon when the Reserve Bank puts up interest rates.
BOWEN:
Well that of course is a matter for them. As an Economic Minister I'm not entitled to speculate about any decisions the Reserve Bank will make. Of course, the Governor has made it clear that he expects rates to rise from what he regards as their emergency low levels and I think he's signalled that very clearly to the Australian people over some months now.
BENSON:
The only guessing game being a quarter of a per cent or half a per cent.
BOWEN:
Well, that's the speculation in the markets but I really don't have the luxury of buying into that, Marius.
BENSON:
But you have bought into it to the extent of saying you expect rates to go up, and the Reserve Bank Governor has said that, and this is not going to be the last of the rises, is it?
BOWEN:
Well look, that is, as I say, interest rates are a matter for the Reserve Bank. The Governor has said repeatedly that interest rates can't stay at their lowest levels forever. He's also said, by the way, that he's very comfortable with the Government's fiscal strategy and that other factors are in play in the Bank's intention to lift rates from their emergency lows. And of course, I think Australians understand that when interest rates hit their lowest rate in 50 years, then there's going to be some correction of that over time.
BENSON:
You may look at the national economic figures with some equanimity. The Newspoll opinion poll figures today are a bit more alarming for Labor. It's been a huge turnaround: you've gone from an 18 point lead two party preferred to four points.
BOWEN:
Look, we've said for some time now that the polls will go up and polls will go down.
BENSON:
But they've not gone down like this in two years.
BOWEN:
Well look, whenever the polls have gone up we've said that polls will go up and the polls will go down, and when the polls go down we'll say the polls will go up and the polls will go down. That's for commentators to speculate on. We're focused on the job at hand, which is the economic situation in my case, as an Economic Minister, and in the other Economic Ministers' case, focused on the job of seeing Australia through what is a very difficult set of global circumstances. And look, as I say, polls will bounce around the room from time to time. I imagine they will continue to bounce around the room between now and the next election.
BENSON:
The polls don't bounce around that much. There's been a very steady pattern for the past two years of the Government doing very well and now there has been this enormous reversal. Are you surprised by such an extent of the reversal?
BOWEN:
Look, as I say Marius, that's for commentators to speculate on.
BENSON:
But you'll be looking closely at them, obviously. Every politician does.
BOWEN:
Well, I think journalists tend to look at them a lot more closely.
BENSON: John Howard was a close observer of polls and said that any politician worth their salt looked at them very closely.
BOWEN:
Well, of course you have a view to what the public is thinking at any particular time. But at the end of the day, you focus on the job at hand.
BENSON:
So what do you think the public's thinking?
BOWEN:
Well, I think the Prime Minister made it clear last night that there'd been some issues which he expected to have some impact in terms of making it difficult fir the Government's message to get through in recent weeks. But we remain focused on the job at hand.
BENSON:
Do you think you've got the asylum seekers issue wrong on this evidence?
BOWEN:
Well, we don't base our policies on polls and that might be the difference between us and the previous administration. We base our policy on what is the right approach in public policy terms to the question before us at any particular time.
BENSON:
And finally, the big question on the first Tuesday in November: your Cup tip, Chris Bowen.
BOWEN:
I'm going to go for the wildcard Marius, and say Kibbutz.
BENSON:
Kibbutz. Okay, Chris Bowen, many thanks.
BOWEN:
Good on you, Marius.