Emma Rebellato:
Let’s bring in the Federal Assistant Treasurer Daniel Mulino now, he joins us from Sydney. Thank you very much for joining us.
Daniel Mulino:
Well thanks very much for having me on, Emma.
Rebellato:
First up on that story, how closely are you and the government watching that case involving Woolies, and also the other one against Coles?
Mulino:
Well as Allan Fels indicated this is a really important case. Clearly fake discounts, if they’re occurring, are inappropriate at any time, but particularly when people are so stretched with cost‑of‑living pressures.
What this case reflects, and also the case against Coles, is the ACCC having been provided with significant extra funding, $30 million in extra funding, to run these kinds of cases. And running these kinds of cases against very significant companies does take up a lot of resources, so I think it’s really welcome that the ACCC is having a really good look at this and that these matters will be tested in the courts.
Rebellato:
Well as you’ve just said, people are really stretched with cost‑of‑living pressures at the moment. They’re pretty scared about how they’re going to pay for things coming up, especially if the war in the Middle East goes on. Will the May Budget have any extra help for Australians that you’ve not already announced?
Mulino:
Well, so, look, I’m not going to be announcing any kind of budget measures here today, but what I can say is that the government has already stepped in and prioritised a reduction in the fuel excise, and that’s already making a difference for people.
Rebellato:
Yep.
Daniel Mulino:
And that the Budget will clearly be framed with a lot of international uncertainty. We’re not immune from the fact that the conflict in the Middle East is going to be impacting oil prices for some period of time. And so we’re going to be crafting the Budget with tax reform, with cuts to spending in certain areas, and with a responsible fiscal trajectory.
Rebellato:
So the Treasurer says the NDIS will be the important part of savings in the upcoming Budget. What does that mean for families who are now worried that they and the kids won’t get the help they need?
Mulino:
Well, can I just start by saying that the NDIS is a really important Labor reform. It’s one of the most significant additions, an important change to our social safety net. It meant that people with a disability avoided the postcode lottery that was there beforehand, it provided people with a great deal of autonomy and was world‑leading in a range of areas.
But it’s also true to say that when we came to office the spending on that program was increasing at an unsustainable rate. So what we’re going to be looking at is a range of measures, including cutting down on fraud in the system, and it’s clearly inappropriate for people to be taking money away from beneficiaries, but we’ll also be looking at a range of measures that will bring the overall spending on the NDIS back to a more sustainable trajectory.
Rebellato:
Who’s going to miss out then on services?
Mulino:
Well I’ll let Mark Butler talk to the specifics, but what I can say is that our priority is going to be that we continue to provide high quality care for those that most need it, for those with permanent, serious, long‑lasting disabilities, and that is going to be something which can only be achieved if the scheme as a whole is sustainable.
Rebellato:
You mentioned tax reform earlier, changes to Capital Gains Tax, is that a definite?
Mulino:
Well again, I can’t talk about specifics in the Budget, but what I can say is that there will be tax reform in the Budget. We’ve made clear that when we came out of the Economic Reform Roundtable last year that intergenerational fairness was something that was raised with us right across the board, and that has remained a priority in the public debate.
So we’re going to be looking at taxes very much with that in mind. We’re also looking at it with productivity in mind and making sure that the tax system as a whole works better.
So those are the overarching themes when it comes to the tax issues that we’re considering at the moment in light of finishing up the Budget.
Rebellato:
We’ve been talking today about that decision by the Fair Work Commission yesterday regarding truck drivers and road transport businesses. What does it mean in real terms if they’re going to have these regular updates, regular reviews with retailers. Are consumers going to end up paying more?
Mulino:
Oh, look, I think that we need to take a bit of time to consider that. You know, that’s a decision that I think I’d look to the relevant minister to put the government’s position forward on in more detail.
Rebellato:
We had a couple of dire predictions for our economy. NAB predicts a 1 in 2 chance of a recession. HSBC says stagflation is a real risk. Are they right?
Mulino:
Well, what’s clear is that our economy is going to be affected, like all economies around the world, by a sustained increase in the price of oil. Part of the difficulty at the moment is the uncertainty, and it’s very difficult to pin down what the ultimate impacts of the conflict are going to be.
The main single driver of impact is going to be the duration of the war, and that’s clearly impossible for anybody to predict at this point. But a secondary impact is going to be how long supply chains and the production of oil in that region is impacted by the conflict, even after, for example, the Strait of Hormuz is opened.
So there are going to be long‑lasting impacts, but look, our economy is still in pretty good shape. Unemployment remains low. We do expect however, that this is going to have impacts on both inflation and unemployment.
Rebellato:
Daniel Mulino, thanks for joining us.
Mulino:
Thanks very much.