Kieran Gilbert:
Welcome back to the program. Let’s bring in the Assistant Treasurer, Daniel Mulino. Thanks for your time, Mr Mulino. First of all, the jobs data, employment remains strong, resilient labour market, but it means rates, they’re not coming down any time soon, are they? Probably the next move is a hike?
Daniel Mulino:
Well, look, Kieran, great to be on this afternoon. And, look, I certainly wouldn’t be speculating on what the next rate movement will be. But, I think it’s welcome that we see continued strength in the labour market. The unemployment rate remained at 4.1, which is a historically a low rate. But we’ve seen growth in the number of employed people, which is a very welcome thing. And, look, it reflects the fact that this government has been creating jobs, the economy under this government has been creating jobs for the last 4 years – 1.2 million jobs, which is a very welcome thing for people in our community.
Gilbert:
But is the problem too much of those jobs government sector jobs? They’re not private sector jobs in large part over recent times, driven by government spending?
Mulino:
Well, when we looked at the RBA commentary on the economy in its last statement, it talked about the fact that private demand is increasing and, in fact, increasing faster than expected. So we are seeing growth right across the economy. And I think that’s a welcome thing. We need to see jobs growth right across our economy.
And if you look at jobs growth in the public sector, it’s in a lot of areas where people are wanting to see services strengthened and supplied – in the care economy, in health care, in the NDIS. So that’s also something that’s very important, given our changing demographics.
Gilbert:
Philip Lowe, the former Governor of the RBA, said, ‘The productivity capacity of the economy is not growing very quickly. The government wants to keep spending, wants to keep offering handouts, which adds to demand. In the normal course of events that would be find, but if supply is not growing you can’t do it. If you try to, then rates have to go up.’ Pretty blunt assessment. And he was derided, you know, as a persistent critic by the Treasurer. Shouldn’t you be listening to him, as you were just 2 years ago?
Mulino:
Well, look, as with other senior members of the government – the PM and the Treasurer – I respectfully disagree with Philip Lowe’s assessment of government spending. As I mentioned earlier, when the RBA’s statement came out last month, they pointed to private demand as the key driver. And if you look at government spending over the last 4 years, the trajectory of our fiscal position is over $230 billion better than the trajectory we inherited. That’s the biggest turnaround in Australian history –
Gilbert:
But you’ve got to go further. That’s the point, isn’t it? You’re a well‑credentialed economist, and he’s saying, Governor Lowe, career at the RBA, respected central banker, and you’ve been respectful, yes. The Treasurer, questions as to whether he was yesterday when he called him a persistent critic. But can I say to you, does the government need to go further given the message from Governor Lowe, former Governor Lowe and a string of other respected economists?
Mulino:
So I’d point to the fact that we have already succeeded in the biggest nominal turnaround in our fiscal trajectory in Australian history. That includes over a hundred billion in saves. Yes, more needs to be done. And so we’ve agreed with the fact that we need to keep managing the budget responsibly. We need to keep putting downward pressure on.
Look, the bit of Philip Lowe’s commentary that I agree with is that we need to lift productivity growth rates. We need to lift the speed limit of our economy. And that’s exactly why the Treasurer has put this at the front and centre of economic policy and we held a three‑day Economic Reform Roundtable. That has directly led to a lot of momentum for the passage of the EPBC Act, it’s led to momentum for freezing the National Construction Code. So already on the productivity front, we’ve seen concrete steps forward by this government. And I might say on the EPBC Act, not with any help from the Opposition or any constructive contribution. So this government is putting productivity front and centre.
Gilbert:
Tim Wilson looks like he’s going to shake things up as the Shadow Treasurer. He’s really demanding some action on productivity, small business, those who are self‑employed, he looks like he’s going to push the government significantly. On the mandate for the RBA he’s even saying get back to your knitting; they should be focusing just on driving down inflation. Does he have a point?
Mulino:
Look, I thought that was a remarkable and, frankly, reckless statement in the sense that the dual mandate has served Australia well for decades. This has been something that has had bipartisan support for many decades now. It is a key part of our economic infrastructure. Fiscal and monetary policy have served Australia well for a long time. If what Tim Wilson says what is to be implemented, it would mean that the RBA would be jacking up interest rates much more aggressively, and that would have a direct impact on unemployment rates. So if Tim Wilson is saying that he wants to see inflation managed in a way that throws many more people onto the jobless heap, I think he needs to come out and say that very specifically.
Gilbert:
On the ISIS brides question – I know it’s not your responsibility but it’s an issue dominating a lot of attention at the moment – the government says they’re Australians. The Passports Act, section 14 of the Passports Act says the minister, on the advice of agencies, can block a passport if there’s a security concern. So you’re saying they get it automatically. There’s actually, in the Passports Act, a provision that says no, you don’t have to.
Mulino:
Yeah, and what the government has said, what the PM and the minister have said very clearly is that, you know, we are not repatriating any of the people in this cohort but that if they have certain rights, then they’ll be able to exercise those rights. There is scope for temporary exclusion orders, and, rightly, we are taking advice of the security agencies as this situation evolves. And the minister will look at each of those situations on a case‑by‑case basis. So my understanding is this is very much how things operated under the previous government, and this is very much the way that it has operated under laws for quite some time.
Gilbert:
Does it stack up that the government hasn’t provided high‑level assistance? If, say, for example, some of the kids are undocumented, no birth certificates, wouldn’t it require a ministerial office intervention to try and deal with those sorts of issues? Or can a bureaucrat simply do that?
Mulino:
Well, look I must – I’m not on top of that level of detail. But what I do know is that as I think the minister said last night when he was interviewed at length on this if people have a right to apply for a passport, then they’ll be processed in the normal way. And I think this is something where, you know, we are acting on the advice of security agencies. I think there’s a little bit of mischief and hypocrisy at times in the way that the Opposition is characterising some of these situations. These are being processed in a way that is responsible and very much in accordance with laws that have been in place for a while.
Gilbert:
Yes, but the Passports Act, as I said, section 14 says that the minister can – it says the person should be refused an Australian travel document in order for it to prevent the person engaging in harmful conduct. A competent authority may make a refusal, cancellation request. You know, ASIO can request that, so I guess that’s what we need an explanation from the minister on given you would understand a lot of people are worried about this.
Mulino:
Yeah, I get that worry. And so I think the government has stressed that a temporary exclusion order has been issued, as I understand it, within the cohort that is being talked about at the moment. And things will be examined on a case‑by‑case basis. And that’s, I think, exactly how things should be. Look, we are taking advice from the security agencies. Each of these cases needs to be looked at carefully and on their own merits.
Gilbert:
Daniel Mulino, Assistant Treasurer, thanks, as always.
Mulino:
Thanks very much, Kieran.