Peter Stefanovic:
Well, that’s the launch pad for our panel discussion this morning involving the Assistant Treasurer, Dan Mulino, and the Shadow Home Affairs Minister, Jonathon Duniam. Gentlemen, good morning to you. So of course, Dan, I know you’re going to give us all the details about the announcement tomorrow.
So let me ask this: why did it take you so long – to borrow Matt’s question – why did it take you so long to address costs, which have been out of control for years now?
Daniel Mulino:
Well, thanks for having me on, Pete, and I’ve got to say it’s a bit rich of Matt (Canavan) to frame it that way, given that when we came to office the NDIS was growing at over 20 per cent annually. So that’s what we inherited from the Opposition who had 10 years and did absolutely nothing on this front.
Now we have in the first 4 years brought the growth rate down substantially; it’s come down by more than half. But we’ve acknowledged that there’s more to be done, and so we’re going to be taking further steps.
I want to reassure people though that what we are going to be announcing tomorrow, what the minister will be announcing tomorrow will be very much with people on the NDIS at the heart of it. We’re going to be making sure the scheme is more sustainable, but also ensuring that it can continue to provide high quality services to those that most need it.
Stefanovic:
Is there an easy fix to iron out the rorting, Dan?
Mulino:
Well, so the rorting is really important, and there’s already been a lot of work that’s been undertaken there, but that is going to be one of the focal points. But in addition to that, there’s the overarching envelope, and look, the NDIS is now an absolutely integral part of our social safety net, it’s a world‑leading reform that has given people with disability far more autonomy and also more consistent benefits across jurisdictions. But it’s a complex scheme, and so as the minister will announce tomorrow, the reforms that we’ve worked on will involve a number of different levers being pulled.
Stefanovic:
Okay. Jonno, I think Dan’s point there is a reasonable one. I mean why didn’t you address costs when you were in power; should you have done more?
Jonathon Duniam:
Well, can I say, it’s probably too early in the day for bingo, but every time there’s a problem the first thing any government spokesperson does is point back 4 years and say, ‘It was all their fault, and we’ve just inherited this’. Well, 4 years on, and of course, I think Matt’s dead right; why haven’t they acted?
Well, the other thing too, right, every time a government faces a difficult situation, what they’ve done in the lead‑up to that point in time is put money away for a rainy day so that you don’t have to attack those in need.
Now, of course, the NDIS is ripe for reform, it has grown beyond what its remit was originally intended to be and changes do need to be made, of course, without question.
But this seems to be one of the first things this government’s going to do in the wake of the Iran war. And of course with the budget spiralling out of control, it looks like they’re going to go for the disability sector instead of tackling some of the others things they should be looking at.
Stefanovic:
Okay, but back to the question, I mean with hindsight should you have done more to address costs?
Duniam:
Well, I think that there’s always room for improvement, and clearly this scheme has grown exponentially year‑on‑year and demand has out‑stripped the capacity for the budget to keep up.
So, sure, should more have been done? Yeah. But here we are today, and the government have had 4 years to act. And we’ll work with them, of course, on any sensible reform, but the point is that if this is the government’s answer to budget repair, then what are they going to be doing elsewhere? Are they just going to be attacking the NDIS, or are they going to be going across the board after 4 years of rampant spending which has driven inflation and driven up mortgage rates.
Stefanovic:
So, Dan, well, further to that point, do you concede the failure to originally tackle NDIS costs on top of record public spending is partly to blame for our poor economic outlook which has been exposed by the war?
Mulino:
Well, so I wouldn’t concede that there’s a poor economic outlook at all. We have low unemployment and we’ve –
Stefanovic:
Well, it’s worsening, put it that way.
Mulino:
Look, we’ve a trajectory that is much stronger because of the fiscal consolidation of this government last term. We’ve now got our debt at $176 billion less than it would have been based on the trajectory that we inherited. And that puts us in a much stronger position, a much more resilient position going into this conflict than we would have been. The overall fiscal position is over $230 billion better off.
Now, look, yes, there’s more to be done, and this Budget will include saves across a range of areas. Minister Butler will talk about the NDIS tomorrow, but there will be others in the Budget, and of course it’s not just about saves, it’s about also ensuring that we continue to grow the economy, and that’s why there’s going to be a productivity agenda in the economy, as there has been over the last 4 years.
Stefanovic:
On capital gains tax, I mean can you confirm at least that you’re going to revert back to this Hawke‑Keating pre‑1999 style rather than a bigger discount to the 50 per cent?
Mulino:
Well, look, you won’t be surprised to know that I’m not going to be announcing specific tax measures. But what I can say is that tax reform will be a part of the Budget, and that if you go back to the Economic Reform Roundtable, which achieved a lot of consensus on the framing that we should adopt for tax reform. We had common themes coming out of that in relation to intergenerational fairness, the need for more productivity growth and a simpler tax system, and they will be the guiding lights for the discussion that we will have in the lead‑up to the Budget.
But can I also say when it comes to housing we have a huge supply agenda. We have a number of measures that have materially boosted supply, and that’s the centre point of our housing agenda.
Stefanovic:
Okay. Well, what’s your response to that, and then perhaps expectations, Jonno – I see you smiling there – on tax reform?
Duniam:
Oh, can we just start with housing. I mean they’ve got a big supply agenda. Well, they’ve had a big supply agenda for 4 years, and of course have done very little to actually provide those houses. They’ve got big schemes and billions of dollars sitting in pots somewhere that hasn’t generated the houses Australians need, hence the problem we have. So I hope this Budget has some sort of magic wand or a silver bullet to fix that problem.
In terms of tax reform and other reform more broadly, I mean we are heading into some pretty strong economic headwinds, and I think this is a good opportunity to be bold with reform, including things like approvals, environmental approvals.
If we want the economy to grow, you don’t need to churn more money into Canberra to incentivise the private sector, you need to get Canberra out of the way, spend less in Canberra, and enable business to do what it needs to do better, and that does include tax reform.
Stefanovic:
Okay. We will have to leave it there. Dan and Jonno, appreciate your time as always. We’ll talk to you again next week.