HOST:
Welcome back to AM Agenda, let's get straight into our panel, today Parliamentary Secretary to the Treasurer, David Bradbury he's at the Sky News Centre, and Shadow Small Business Minister Bruce Billson is in Melbourne. I want to start with David Bradbury. We just heard from the Finance Minister Penny Wong there about the state of the economy. It is in good shape, but for mortgage holders in electorates like yours in Sydney's West this isn't the best of news, really is it?
BRADBURY:
Well look I think that the good news for people right across the country and in regions such as mine out in Western Sydney, is that there are more people in work now than just about any other advanced economy in the world. And clearly, when it comes to being able to meet your obligations in terms of keeping a roof over your head, whether that is by paying the rent or covering the costs of the mortgage, being in employment is the number one priority. But clearly, the economy is facing some challenges as we move forward in terms of some of the capacity constraints and I think that's why the very strict fiscal discipline that the government is seeking to impose is going to be absolutely critical in ensuring that we try and contain any of those inflationary impacts, and try and take as much pressure off the increases in interests rates that will inevitably accompany a return to a stronger economy. But these are the challenges that I think we are well placed to confront. We have measures such as our 2% cap on spending growth; the fact that we had all of our election commitments fully offset by savings; in addition to that we've made a commitment to bank any of the revenue upgrades, any of the revenue gains that come as a result of revisions in those revenue figures. So these are a range of measures that will ensure we keep the budget strong into the future.
HOST:
Well, Bruce Billson we heard from Penny Wong there saying that the biggest challenge to the government really is managing growth, that's not the worst problem in the world to have, is it?
BILLSON:
Well, I'm not sure what the government is going to do managing either a slow down or growth. They seem to be doing neither well. In fact, if we are in a phase of managing growth just when is the budget going to get back into surplus? Just when will some of the big spending –
BRADBURY:
2012-13
BILLSON:
And what you hear the Labor party – good morning to you David – what you hear the Labor party always talk about is what they are going to do years down the track. The deficit is blowing out this year, if the deficit blows out next year there's still one hundred million dollars a day being borrowed making it difficult for mortgage holders and small business, putting upward pressure on interest rates. And the surplus that David and the government talks about is even thinner in the out years. MYEFO is based on a 98.5 dollar to the US dollar when the reserve bank is saying that there will be parity there. So, even on that very simple parameter these numbers are very dodgy and the government's dodged the hard work of actually tackling the budget, scrutinizing expenditure and frankly, Minister Wong has got NFI: No Fiscal Idea. Her role is to give great scrutiny to these expenditures, we've not seen that start - when is it going to start? Because the Australian public need to see the government take its foot off the accelerator as the reserve bank and the banks are putting their heavy feet on the brakes.
BRADBURY:
I've got to say I find it absolutely extraordinary that Bruce would come forward and start talking about dodgy figures. When it comes to dodgy figures, we need look no further than the complete lack of policy courage that we saw from the opposition during the election campaign. Joe Hockey didn't have the courage to come forward in a budget reply speech to set out any legitimate savings. He didn't have the courage to come forward and to have his costings independently audited and then subsequent to the election he's been exposed for what was an $11 billion black hole. So I think that when it comes to dodgy figures, Bruce, when it comes to dodgy figures you really want to have a look in your own backyard before you start looking elsewhere. These are the figures, the assumptions and the forecasts that have been brought forward by Treasury. Now, Bruce if you want to cast aspersions on the forecasting of Treasury –
BILLSON:
If the government is going to make the claim that a loss of revenue as a result of changes in exchange rates, and then not embrace the most up to date analysis of exchange rates projection, and then somehow come out saying, 'look the budget deficit is bigger this year, blow out next but then we'll still be in surplus but it's going to be shaved and everything's ok'. I mean no one believes that, the Coalition savings agenda outlined during the election is a perfect starting point for the government where the Coalition has done much of the hard work for it identifying those opportunities for saving, taking some pressure off expenditure and off interest rates.
HOST:
Bruce, David we've got a lot to get through, so I'm sure we could talk all morning on that particular subject of figures. But I do want to move on, to a topic that continues to raise its head as well. Yesterday we saw the National Secretary of the ALP Karl Bitar at the National Press Club as the soul searching continues within the ALP as to the election result. He admitted that the three mistakes that were made by the ALP were the 'real Julia', the Citizens Assembly and the Western Sydney rail link. David Bradbury, your electorate is in Western Sydney what do you make of his comments, particularly those about the Western Sydney rail link?
BRADBURY:
I think that Karl made a number of insightful observations about a number of matters in relation to the campaign that we've just had. And clearly, when it comes to the post mortems that parties inevitably go through once you've gone through a difficult election campaign, as we have, these attract some interest from the broader public. In terms of where I think we need to be heading, I think there were some lessons to learn and certainly we are trying to ensure that we do learn those lessons. But, I think that one of the things that Karl pointed to, and something that I think is important is that we need to ensure into the future as opposed to what we had throughout the three years that has passed, is a more robust discussion. I think that is a discussion within the party that should occur. I think there are plenty of opportunities to occur through the usual party channels, and to be honest I think that we will be stronger if we are able to have some of those discussions in a more frank and robust manner than perhaps we did in the last three years. I think that one of the points that Karl does make very well is that it wasn't just the campaign itself. You have to view the entirety of the three years of Labor in government. I think that Karl made the very valid point that Labor had achieved more in government in the three years than in any term of the Howard government. But I think that people's expectations in part, perhaps contributed to by some of the messaging on our part, had raised expectations to a level where it was always going to be very difficult for us to satisfy people's expectations.
HOST:
Bruce Billson, Brian Loughnane is up next at the National Press Club today and we'll be showing that on APAC at 12:30 EDT. Is there anything you're willing to admit on behalf of the Coalition for any mistakes made during the campaign by the Coalition?
BILLSON:
Well one thing we can be confident about is Brian Loughnane won't provide one of these incredibly self-serving addresses like Karl Bitar. I mean, people were deeply unhappy with the performance of the government. To claim that so much had been achieved that it was poorly communicated is just ridiculous. I mean, the Australian public were sold a catalogue about Kevin Rudd and Labor and what was actually delivered looked nothing like it. And then to come out and say a couple of episodes in the campaign contributed to Labor's poor election performance ignores the fact that since the election, when governments normally get a bounce in the polls, where people move on with their lives and hope the government does a reasonable job because that's in the country's interest, there's been no such bounce whatsoever. The Australian public are deeply disinterested in a Labor Government that keeps talking about itself, keeps giving these self serving answers and these in-crowd kind of explanations for things, while their real concerns about cost of living don't get the attention they deserve. Small businesses – there's 30,000 less than there were when Labor was elected, 300,000 fewer people employed in small business. Why isn't the government focussing on those things? And I think that was the weakness of the government, that was the weakness of the campaign and Karl Bitar's comments were completely self serving.
BRADBURY:
Well we could talk about the 360,000 jobs that have been created by the government having steered the economy through the global financial crisis. These are the sorts of achievements that Karl Bitar rightly pointed out, that the government had failed to really achieve the political capital that those policy achievements really deserve. Now, there are a range of challenges that we will face into the future, but I think that Karl made a number of really insightful points. And one point that he did make, was that the Liberal Party was very effective in this campaign in hiding Tony Abbott. And I can only say from my own perspective and my own electorate, on election day I found it extraordinary that turning up to polling booths on election day, there were no photographs, no posters of Tony Abbott which I think was a point that Karl also made that hasn't received the same degree of attention. But there are obviously going to be post mortems after elections and they will occur on both sides of the fence.
BILLSON:
David, how can you say Tony Abbott was hidden? There was that Herculean 72 hour effort. He was everywhere, he was engaging with the real Australian community about genuine concerns that they have with a very clear message about what an Abbott government would do. They understood what we believed in and what we would do. Whilst they are still not sure what Labor believes in nor what it's allowed to believe in now with The Greens alliance.
BRADBURY:
Bruce, I can only say if they turned up to a polling booth in Lindsay they didn't see much of Tony Abbott, there were no posters there and I think that was an extraordinary thing. So, interesting point that Karl made.
HOST:
Ok gentleman I am going to have to interrupt you both we are out of time this morning. Thankyou very much for your time and thanks for joining us on AM Agenda. We will have all of the latest headlines and the news up in just a moment.