JIM CHALMERS:
Thanks for coming out to Logan again today. I wanted to talk particularly about the new jobs data, which is out this morning, as well as make some remarks about the announcement of the retirement of Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern of New Zealand.
First of all when it comes to the jobs data, we are really pleased to see the unemployment rate stay around historic lows. 3.5 per cent for December is very welcome news in the context of a slowing global economy. One of our best defences against the uncertainty and the volatility in the global economy is low unemployment - and we have that. Now jobs growth has come off a bit in December in expected ways, as the combination of a slowing global economy and higher interest rates begins to take hold on our economy, but we are coming off an incredibly strong base here - the fastest six months of jobs growth of any new government on record. So we're coming from an incredibly strong position: historically low unemployment rate, 212,000 jobs created since the Albanese Labor Government was first elected. It's very pleasing to see the unemployment rate around 3.5 per cent in December. We've got our share of challenges, we do expect the unemployment rate to ease as job growth eases as well. We've got a lot coming at us from around the world but we've got a lot going for us too: low unemployment, the beginnings of wages growth and good prices for our exports. All of these things hold us in very good stead as we confront the uncertainty and the volatility from the global economy into 2023 and beyond.
Now, when it comes to the retirement announcement of Prime Minister Ardern: Jacinda Ardern leads and governs her own way, and now she leaves on her own terms. Our friendship is obviously broader and deeper than any one person, but Jacinda Ardern was not a garden variety prime minister. We are talking about an incredible source of strength at home in New Zealand, and a source of remarkable inspiration around the world. Jacinda Ardern is more than a friend to Australia, she's more like a sister. Some of us were fortunate enough to meet with her and to work with her ministers but you didn't have to know her personally to feel like you knew Jacinda Ardern. I know that a lot of Australians will be sad to see Prime Minister Ardern go. But it's a happy day too for her loved ones, who will get to see more of her as well as she confronts and considers the next chapter in what has already been quite a remarkable contribution to New Zealand politics, but also a source of incredible inspiration to politicians and leaders and others right around the world.
Jacinda Ardern gave a small country a very big voice. Jacinda Ardern set a new standard and set a new example for the rest of us who aspire to lead like she did with that best combination of strength and authenticity as well as empathy and compassion and warmth and kindness. Authenticity is Jacinda Ardern's superpower. We saw that in spades and what she shows leaders around the world, and politicians and others around the world, is that you don't have to choose between strength and compassion and authenticity. Jacinda Ardern has all of those things simultaneously in spades. Jacinda Ardern is one of a kind. We will be sad to see her leave the New Zealand prime ministership. Obviously our friendship will remain in good hands whoever picks up the leadership after Jacinda Ardern retires. Jacinda Ardern is a leader of remarkable strength, compassion, authenticity and optimism. She has the best imaginable combination of that strength and optimism and empathy and compassion and integrity and authenticity - all of the things that we love about New Zealand and all of the things that you want to see in a leader, we see in Jacinda Ardern. I think on behalf of the whole country we wish her and her loved ones well as she considers the next chapter in a remarkable life.
JOURNALIST:
Are today's unemployment figures a sign of a softening economy?
CHALMERS:
Well, even in the October Budget, the Treasury forecast an easing in jobs growth in the economy as the combination of a slowing global economy and the impact of rising interest rates begins to take hold on our economy. But we enter this period of global economic uncertainty from a position of genuine strength - 212,000 new jobs created under the short life so far of the Albanese Labor Government and so I think that means we are in relatively good nick as we enter what might be a difficult year in the global economy in 2023. But employment growth is easing in expected ways as a combination of all of those factors play out in our economy, but incredibly pleasing, and very welcome to see the unemployment rate down around historic lows in the middle threes.
JOURNALIST:
But it is a sign of a softening economy though, isn't it?
CHALMERS:
We expect the Australian economy to soften through the course of 2023 as the impact of a global downturn, combined with the impact of interest rates, has consequences for our economy here at home. And we expect to see that in the unemployment rate in the coming months as we made clear in the Budget in October. The Treasury forecast is for employment growth to ease and for the unemployment rate to edge up a little bit but to still remain around these historic lows which put us in such good stead as we confront a slowing global economy.
JOURNALIST:
Are interest rate hikes starting to bite households?
CHALMERS:
Well clearly when you have eight interest rate rises in a row, since before the election last year, that will begin to have an impact on the economy. We expect to see that in terms of economic growth and also jobs growth as well. And so that is in many ways an inevitable consequence of higher interest rates at home and a slowing economy around the world. Our economy is expected to soften a little this year as a consequence of those factors coming at us from around the world and being felt around the kitchen tables of this country and we'll see that in the unemployment rate. But we're incredibly pleased, it's very, very welcome that our unemployment rate is still around the middle threes, we've created 212,000 jobs under the life of this relatively new Albanese Labor Government and that puts us in good stead.
JOURNALIST:
How would an economy weakening faster than expected affect your Budget preparations?
CHALMERS:
Well, obviously, when we update the Budget, at each occasion we update our forecasts for the economy and that flows through to the Budget as well. That's the normal way that these things are put together. On a daily basis we are monitoring new data in our economy and new data in economies around the world. For example in China we had a very soft quarter reported through the course of this week, but we expect the Chinese economy to rebound as it opens up. And both of those things - the softening in the near term and the rebound in the coming months - will have consequences for our economy and for our Budget. We monitor these things very closely and we update the forecasts in the usual way.
JOURNALIST:
Has the Government's implementation of the gas price cap added uncertainty to the gas market as some gas producers have suggested?
CHALMERS:
No, I don't believe so. We expect this gas price cap to be implemented and we expect it to make a positive difference to electricity prices and energy prices over time. A lot of this reporting of numbers that you're seeing in the newspapers right now, or in a couple of the newspapers, is based on deals struck last year. And some of these price rises which were agreed last year, and still flowing through as we see them reported in January of this year, were precisely the reason why we acted decisively in the way that we did. The difference between us and the Coalition is we saw these forecast energy prices flowing through into deals struck last year and we think we should do something about it - the Coalition thinks we should do absolutely nothing about these high and rising energy prices which risk hollowing out our industries and smashing households and pensioners and small businesses.
If the Coalition had their way we would do absolutely nothing about these high and rising energy prices. We take a different approach - we expect this cap to be implemented, we expect it to make a meaningful and positive difference. The numbers that we are seeing right now are a consequence of the sorts of deals and price rises that we saw as 2022 came to a close. It's why we acted. We will see the benefits of this policy over time. We expect it to take some of the edge off - some of the sting out of these forecasts price rises. The Coalition would prefer the Government did absolutely nothing and that would leave small businesses and pensioners and families and whole industries swinging in the breeze.
JOURNALIST:
Are higher than expected power prices a problem in your efforts to combat rising inflation?
CHALMERS:
Energy prices are a big and concerning part of our inflation problem in our economy. It's why we've acted decisively with this gas price cap. That's why the states are imposing coal caps. It's why we've got energy bill relief coming in the May Budget because we recognise this is one of the major pressures on Australian families, Australian pensioners, small businesses and industries. It's a big part of our inflation problem in the economy and inflation is still the defining challenge in our economy. That's why we're acting decisively. That's why it beggars belief that the Coalition doesn't want us to.
JOURNALIST:
What's the Labor Party say about their concept around Australian Day at the moment? [inaudible].
CHALMERS:
We understand that Australia Day is a challenging day for a lot of Australians and the government doesn't intend to change Australia Day but we do intend to put in place a meaningful Voice for First Nations people in our country.
We do intend to implement a meaningful Voice to Parliament with the referendum that will take place later this year. This is our big chance for a unifying moment in our country. This is an opportunity to bring Australians together. This is an opportunity for the people of this country, not the politicians, to decide to move forward together in a spirit of unity and cooperation and respect. This is our big chance this year to make a meaningful change to the way we govern ourselves and the way we conduct our affairs, not to cut across the work of the Parliament but to add to it, to bolster the work of the Parliament - not to veto it, not to cut across it.
Now Peter Dutton says that he wants more detail. Peter Dutton is not looking for more detail, he's looking for more division. And I hope he reconsiders this approach because this is a big chance for the people of Australia to do something meaningful. It's not about the politicians, it's not an opportunity for partisan conflict, it's an opportunity to come together in a respectful and meaningful way and to move forward together as a country. I hope that we can grab this opportunity this year. I think it would be a very disappointing outcome if the kinds of politics that Mr Dutton is playing jeopardised and put at risk what could be an amazing moment for this country in 2023.
Thanks very much.