9 May 2023

Doorstop interview, Parliament House, Canberra

Note

Subjects: May Budget, surplus, cost-of-living relief, JobSeeker, stage three tax cuts, commodities, economy

JIM CHALMERS:

This is a responsible Budget which helps people doing it tough and sets Australia up for the future. It's carefully calibrated to address cost-of-living pressures in our communities, rather than add to them. It's a Budget in Labor's best traditions but also Australia's best traditions - help for the vulnerable, broadening and extending more opportunities and investing in the future of our country and its people. In dollar terms, it will show the biggest budget turnaround on record as a consequence of our responsible economic management. We are now forecasting a surplus this year, smaller deficits after that, and less debt throughout the Budget. If this eventuates, this will be the first Budget surplus in 15 years. This wouldn't be possible without the disciplined approach that we have taken. Now, obviously, the big upgrades to revenue in the near term are very important. But what also matters is the fact that over 2 Budgets now, we have banked 87 per cent of the proceeds of those upward revisions to revenue, without which we wouldn't be publishing the much, much stronger position that you will see in the Budget tonight. Now a stronger budget position is not an end in itself. It's the foundation on which we build everything that we want to do for our people, their economy, and our society. Our responsible economic management has meant that we can help the vulnerable in tough times, we can extend and broaden opportunities right throughout our country, and we can invest in the future of our economy and our people. I'm really proud of this Budget, that I'll be handing down tonight, I'm really proud of the collective effort that's gone into it. The job is obviously not finished. There are still challenges in our economy and in our Budget, and obviously, in our communities as well. But what I'll be doing tonight, is laying the foundations not just for a stronger Budget, not just for a stronger economy, but for a stronger country as well. A country that helps people through tough times, extends and broadens more opportunities, and makes sure that the future that people get right around our country is the future that they need and deserve.

JOURNALIST:

As you said, if you can do it, this will be the first surplus in 15 years, the first Labor surplus in 35. Are you feeling the weight of history to deliver on this?

CHALMERS:

I don't see it in exactly those terms, my eyes are forward to the future. And the job of this Budget is to do what we can to help people through difficult times at the same time as we invest in their future, and that's been my focus. Obviously, we are all aware of the history here. This is a forecast for surplus this year. There are always good reasons to be cautious about it, we will know for sure in a couple of months’ time. But what we already know is that the much much stronger budget position that I will release tonight would not be possible if we copied the approach of our predecessors. Or if we hadn't imposed on the Budget the sort of discipline that makes it possible for us from that stronger foundation, to look after people in the here and now at the same time as we invest in their opportunities into the future.

JOURNALIST:

How will you really be looking after people on JobSeeker and will it be an across the board rise for all recipients?

CHALMERS:

Well, you'll see tonight, what we propose to do to help the most vulnerable people in our society. Now we recognise that people are doing it tough. And in a Budget which has still got its share of pressures, a Budget which still has serious structural issues to deal with, we will do what we can to help the most vulnerable through tough times. Now we've been saying for some time, and you will see tonight, the cost-of-living relief in this Budget is broader than what has been speculated on. It has a number of elements. It won't all be limited by age or by other distinctions. There will be help for the most vulnerable, but also for middle Australia, as we get through these difficult times together and lay the foundations for a much better future.

JOURNALIST:

Treasurer, you talk about helping the vulnerable, your cost-of-living package will cost 14 billion over 4 years, stage three tax cuts which come in next year will cost upwards of $20 billion a year? How do you reconcile that with helping the vulnerable?

CHALMERS:

We'll be helping the vulnerable this year, in this Budget, and that's been our focus. And the tax cuts that you raise, they don't come in for more than a year now. They haven't been a focus of our discussions for this Budget. But we can help the most vulnerable people in our community and in our country this year, at the same time as we lay the foundations for a stronger, more sustainable economy into the future.

JOURNALIST:

Angus Taylor says anyone could have delivered a surplus on this Budget. And he challenges you, and says the real test will be whether the Budget can deal with inflation and whether it's sustainable, and not a one-off. What do you say to that?

CHALMERS:

Well, Angus Taylor's argument appears to be that anybody could deliver a surplus except for the Liberals in office. They had 9 cracks at this and went none for 9. They promised a surplus in their first year and every year thereafter, and didn't deliver a single one. Now, Angus Taylor is not a serious person. He's not making a serious contribution and that's why nobody takes him seriously.

JOURNALIST:

Treasurer, Matt Canavan brought a lump of coal in this morning and said that your surplus is all due to coal prices, is it?

CHALMERS:

No of course not, obviously, the resources sector is making an important contribution to the Budget, but not the biggest contribution. About a fifth of the upward revision to revenue comes from higher commodity prices - twice that, double that comes from a much stronger labour market - and the fact that after a decade of wage stagnation, we're seeing the welcome beginnings of wages growth, and that's made a much bigger contribution to the improvement here. Now, the improvement in the Budget is one thing, what you do with it also matters. We are banking 87 per cent of the upward revisions to revenue over 2 Budgets. Without that discipline, without that approach to responsible economic management, we wouldn't be anywhere near the much stronger outcomes that we're publishing tonight.

JOURNALIST:

Treasurer, what can we expect for the people of Northern New South Wales?

CHALMERS:

We have been there for the people of Northern New  South Wales in the same way the people of Northern New South Wales have been there for each other. I work closely with Minister Murray Watt, I've been throughout the area myself as they recover from those devastating natural disasters. And so when it comes to providing relief, and when it comes to rebuilding communities, the people of Northern New South Wales have been front and centre.

JOURNALIST:

[inaudible] the 'back in black' mug, can you just explain how short-lived this surplus will be?

CHALMERS:

We've made it clear for some time that this welcome, near term improvement which is a consequence of our responsible economic management, becomes in the medium term, a much more difficult situation as the structural pressures on the Budget intensify rather than ease. Now, we've been talking about that together for the best part of the year that we've been in Office. And we will be making a structural difference to the Budget, a positive structural difference to the Budget tonight, but we understand that the job's not finished. It's not my style to make 'back in black' mugs like my predecessor did. I thought that was humiliating for the Liberals and Nationals, frankly, I'm taking a much more cautious approach, and a much more conservative approach. There are good reasons for that. I'm proud of the Budget that we are handing down tonight, I'm proud of the discipline that has meant that we are now forecasting a surplus for this year. But a much stronger budget position isn't an end in itself. It's what we build a better future on, it's how we help the most vulnerable people, it's how we extend opportunities right throughout middle Australia. So I don't see it as an end in itself, I see it as an important thing that we've been able to publish tonight. But it's not the only thing, it's not the only part of our agenda.

JOURNALIST:

Some people are warning that the cost-of-living package, the extra $15 billion splashing into the economy will be inflationary. How do you prevent this having a negative impact on the economy?

CHALMERS:

Our Budget is carefully designed and carefully calibrated to address cost-of-living pressures in our economy rather than add to them. And if you think, for example, about our energy bill relief, that will take the pressure off prices. And there may well be other initiatives in the Budget tonight which have a similar impact. We're very conscious, obviously, of the inflation challenge in our economy, it remains the dominant concern that we have about the economy, particularly over the next little while. And so what we've done as we've put together a cost-of-living package, which recognises that people are doing it tough but which doesn't make the inflation problem in our economy worse. I look forward to talking with you about all of that tonight. Thanks so much.