BRIDGET BRENNAN:
Welcome back on this Monday morning, you're watching News Breakfast.
A busy weekend with an election and a by‑election in two states, we'll have more on that a little later. But first, the Commonwealth Government is backing a pay rise for Australia's lowest paid workers this morning.
MICHAEL ROWLAND:
It wants the rise to be in line with inflation and will make the submission to the Fair Work Commission Annual Wage Review.
For more let's bring in the Federal Treasurer Jim Chalmers. Treasurer, good morning to you.
JIM CHALMERS:
Good morning Michael.
ROWLAND:
So you want this increase in line with inflation? The current inflation rate is 3.4 per cent so you're after a 3.4 per cent wage rise?
CHALMERS:
Typically the Fair Work Commission uses the quarterly number rather than the monthly number that you've just cited, which bounces around a bit.
But we don't want to see workers on the lowest pay go backwards. That's consistent with the other submissions we have made to the Fair Work Commission.
Our focus this week and every week is helping to ensure that people can earn more and keep more of what they earn. We are enthusiastic supporters of a decent minimum pay increase for Australian low‑paid workers so that people can earn more and the tax cuts are all about ensuring people can keep more of what they earn as well.
One of the reasons why we've got some welcome and encouraging wages growth in our economy after a decade of stagnation is because of the way that we have enthusiastically championed decent pay rises for people who are on the lowest incomes.
ROWLAND:
You're asking the Commission in your submission to consider any pay rise to be separate to the revised stage three tax cuts. Why is that?
CHALMERS:
Well, we don't see cost‑of‑living relief as instead of decent wages growth. We want to see decent wages growth on top of the billions of dollars in cost‑of‑living relief that the Albanese Government is rolling out. The tax cuts that we're rolling out for every taxpayer or the energy bill relief or cheaper early childhood education or cheaper medicines – none of those things are a substitute for getting wages growing in our economy again.
What we've demonstrated is a willingness and an ability to roll out that cost‑of‑living help at the same time as we get wages moving again in our economy because we recognise, even if our opponents don't, that one of the best ways that we can help people deal with cost‑of‑living pressures is to get wages moving again so people earn more and keep more of what they earn.
ROWLAND:
On the broader economy we had those recently better than expected jobs figures and that has prompted some economists, Treasurer, to say that any rate cuts from the RBA may now be delayed, possibly until later, well later this year or even into next year, and I know you don't comment on the independent Reserve Bank's deliberations, but would you be concerned if rate relief was pushed down the road a bit?
CHALMERS:
Let me put it this way, Michael, the primary concern of the Reserve Bank is inflation, and inflation has moderated really substantially since those peaks in 2022. We'll get a monthly figure later in the week. It might bounce a little bit up, a might bounce a little bit down, but overall the direction of travel is really clear. So inflation is the primary thing that they are focused on. We also know from the National Accounts our economy is slowing quite considerably and consumption has been especially flat, and the Reserve Bank will be focused on that as well. But if you take a step back for a moment and you think about the inflation figures, the wages figures that we've been talking about and the job figures, we've got a pretty rare trifecta in our economy right now. We've got unemployment coming down, we've got inflation moderating, and we've got real wages growth for the first time in years. All three of those things are good things.
ROWLAND:
Let's turn to the Tasmanian election. The Labor Opposition was up against an ageing Liberal government, there's a housing crisis, the health system is in diabolical trouble and yet, and yet Labor managed a primary vote of only 29 per cent. That is far from great, isn't it?
CHALMERS:
Oh look, I think in every state and territory we'd like the Labor alternative or the Labor government to do as well as it can but I don't want to diminish or undermine the really important work that Rebecca White and her colleagues have been doing – focused on health and housing and the cost‑of‑living, the bread‑and‑butter issues that the Albanese Government is focused on as well.
They would have hoped for a better outcome, I'm sure they'll tell you that themselves. The final outcome in Tasmania because of their electoral system won't be known probably for some weeks but what we already know is we saw a huge double‑digit swing against the Liberal Party in Tasmania. Then we had this bizarre episode of the Liberals pretending it was some kind of stunning outcome for them on Saturday night.
The biggest conclusion from the outcome in Tasmania is that double digit swing against the Tasmanian Liberals. We would have liked to have done better but the Liberals certainly don't have anything to crow about.
ROWLAND:
Yeah, but one of the big conclusions was that Tasmanians simply aren't buying what the Labor Party is selling.
CHALMERS:
I'll let the analysts, particularly the Tasmanian political analysts pore over the results from Tasmania. As I said, we won't know the final outcome for a couple of weeks but it's pretty clear from statements out of the Tasmanian Labor Party that they don't think they are a show at forming a government, at least not at this stage.
I'll leave that kind of commentary to the experts down there. What's already clear to us I think is that the Liberal Party got an outcome which is very disappointing from their point of view. They'll have an opportunity now to try and form a government from the wreckage of the election on Saturday.
ROWLAND:
Is the government concerned, let's look at the Dunstan by‑election, Labor government retaining that, but the Greens did really, really well and there are now some analysts pointing to the Greens eventually looking good in the Federal seat of Sturt. Does that concern Labor?
CHALMERS:
I think if I'm remembering it correctly the Greens ran third in Dunstan. That's not unusual that that would happen. The unusual thing is the really stunning outcome for Premier Malinauskas and his Labor team in South Australia. That was a history making outcome and really the only conclusion from that is how well that South Australian Government is travelling, focused on the issues that matter to people – big vision for the future focused around energy and resources and all of the things that we're focused on in the federal government as well. So a stunning outcome for Premier Malinauskas and Stephen Mulligan and their team. I think all of these other kind of secondary considerations are just that, they're secondary. It was an amazing outcome for South Australian Labor, and I congratulate them.
ROWLAND:
Yeah, so they've won but there was a swing against Labor of close to three per cent and a swing to the Greens of nine per cent. It goes to the broader question raised by many of your Labor colleagues, is there growing concern about the Greens increasingly coming at Labor from your left flank?
CHALMERS:
We know that we've got to deal with the Greens on the left and the Liberal and National Parties on the far right. That's just the reality of politics in 2024. But in terms of the swing against Labor, the primary swing against Labor, they didn't hold the seat before Saturday, they're going to hold the seat after Saturday. That's a stunning outcome. We shouldn't talk it down. And as for the Greens, it's easy enough for the Greens to promise the world and dash off press releases and commit hundreds of billions of dollars to different things. We've got to govern the country in a methodical and a responsible way, and part of that is making sure that all of our commitments add up.
We will get all kinds of looney stuff from the Greens on the left, from the Nationals and Liberals on the far right, we understand that. We're a good, middle of the road government, as is Premier Malinauskas's government in South Australia.
ROWLAND:
Treasurer, appreciate your time this morning, thank you.
CHALMERS:
Thanks Michael.