David Speers:
Treasurer, thank you.
Jim Chalmers:
It’s been too long, David.
Speers:
It’s been too long. After a little bit of sleep, how do you reflect on what happened last night?
Chalmers:
It’s still sinking in, David. This was beyond even our most optimistic expectations. It was a history‑making night. It was one for the ages, genuinely. But to pick up on something that Sam said which I think is right, this victory does come as well with healthy helpings of humility as well because we know that there are a lot of challenges to address in our economy and more broadly we know that people are under pressure.
We know the global environment is uncertain, and we know that this second term has been given to us by the Australian people because they want stability in uncertain times, but not because they think we’ve solved every challenge in our economy or in our society more broadly, but because we’re better placed to work towards solving some of those challenges. So there is an element of humility and there’s a lot of gratitude to the Australian people.
Speers:
And I want to just ask you about your approach now to a second term. A second term with a big win and a big majority – bigger than you’ve had in the first term – and this question about how you use this political capital. Just give us a sense of how you are thinking about what you’ll do in this second term.
Chalmers:
Well, I think one of the major differences we have between some of the commentary and how we see our own government is this is an ambitious government. You think about some of the changes we’ve made, income tax cuts, some of the budget repair that we’ve done, the big investments in housing, the energy transformation, and particularly in healthcare, this is an ambitious government and we’re looking forward to implementing the agenda that we took to the election.
I think one thing that tempers some of the discussion I heard from yourself and the counterparts over there is, remember, nobody will control the Senate. It’s not an outcome like we saw under Prime Minister Howard.
Speers:
You’ll still have the Greens there.
Chalmers:
Well, not just them, in the Senate.
Speers:
I think it might, in fact, be just them that you’ll have to rely on, unless you have the Coalition, of course, for legislation.
Chalmers:
The point that I’m making is we have a big agenda, we’re looking forward to implementing it with confidence, with the confidence that comes from a big majority, a substantial majority in the House of Representatives.
Speers:
But I guess, I mean, I hear your point about reforms that you have done in that first term, but I guess what I’m getting at here is that budget challenge in particular. We do have deficits for the next 4 years under your budget plans of about $150 billion in total. It’s a structural deficit. Something needs to happen to fix that. Is that going to be a priority?
Chalmers:
Well, that will obviously require our ongoing attention, but we shouldn’t dismiss or diminish the really quite phenomenal progress that we’ve made in the budget in our first term, a couple of hundred billion dollar turnaround, 2 surpluses – that hasn’t happened for decades – so we’ve made progress.
But the way that Katy Gallagher and I see that challenge is that’s an ongoing challenge, including in a structural sense, where we have made progress in aged care, the NDIS and interest costs but clearly that will warrant ongoing attention.
Speers:
Does the scale of this win give you more confidence to do things that might not be politically popular?
Chalmers:
The way that I see the scale of this win, I thought, again not to dance on the political graves of our opponents, but there was a real kind of darkness at the heart of the Coalition campaign, this kind of backward‑looking pessimism which Australians rejected.
And in rejecting that, I think they embraced the kind of leadership that Anthony Albanese provides which is practical, pragmatic, it’s problem solving, and it’s very forward looking, and that’s the approach that we’ll take.
Speers:
So when we look at what you’re facing over the years ahead, the 3 years ahead, I mentioned the budget challenge, you’ve also got the Donald Trump challenge and the prospects of a global trade war and a lot going on. What are your priorities right now?
Chalmers:
Well, first of all, I think managing this global economic uncertainty. I’ve already had a briefing from the Treasury Secretary this morning at a quarter to 7.
Speers:
Already this morning?
Chalmers:
Yes, this morning, I had a briefing with Secretary Steven Kennedy. I’m grateful to him for providing that briefing of the initial –
Speers:
Do you talk during the campaign or is this the first sort of proper briefing?
Chalmers:
We speak but in not the same way that we would engage outside of caretaker.
Speers:
Now that he knows you’re back in the job for sure.
Chalmers:
So we had a discussion at a quarter to 7 this morning, back to work. Obviously, the immediate focus is on this global economic uncertainty, particularly the US and China part of that and what it means for us. And so I was able to be briefed on that, what’s happening in markets and what it means for the Australian economy. So clearly, that’s the immediate focus and again. I think one of the reasons why we got this big majority last night is because people recognise that if you wanted stability while the global economy was going crazy, then a majority Labor government was the best way to deliver that. So global economic uncertainty but our agenda is really clear.
We have to build more homes now, we’ve got to get this energy transformation right, we’ve got to do more to embrace technology – particularly the AI opportunity. There’s a huge agenda there for us and what our agenda boils down to is obviously weathering and withstanding this global economic uncertainty in the near term, but also making sure that we make the Australian people the primary beneficiaries of all of this churn and change that we’re seeing in the world, and so we’ve got a big agenda there and I’m really looking forward to rolling it out.
Speers:
And just on the briefing you had this morning, is there any noticeable change in the outlook for the global economy?
Chalmers:
I think the spectrum of scenarios is much broader now. We know that the direct impact on us from the tariffs is manageable and relatively modest, but there is a huge downside risk in the global economy. I think what’s happening, particularly between the US and China does cast a dark shadow over the global economy.
And we’re not uniquely impacted by that, but we’re really well placed, we are quite well prepared because of the progress that Australians made over the course of the last 3 years. So we go in that with a sense of, we’re realistic about how this could play out in the world, but we are optimistic about Australia’s place in it.
Speers:
So that is still the number one concern for Australia?
Chalmers:
Certainly, for every country, including Australia. But global economic uncertainty really is the big influence on my thinking and my work on day one of a second term and we need to have the ability – and we will have the ability – to manage that uncertainty at the same time as we roll out our domestic agenda – Future Made in Australia, housing, energy, technology, human capital, competition policy.
Speers:
The great difficulty you face and the government faced in the first term was inflation and all of those interest rate rises. We saw one rate cut earlier this year – are you looking forward to in the second term seeing a few more rate cuts?
Chalmers:
Look, I’m not going to count my chickens on that front. Certainly the market expects there to be a number of interest rate cuts, I don’t make those sorts of predictions. We saw a rate cut in February, and I think that did have an impact on the way people see their prospects.
Consumer confidence has actually started rebounding from the middle of last year, the tax cuts, petrol prices coming down, and then the interest rate cut has slowly rebuilt confidence off a very low base and so if we do see more interest rate cuts over the course of the rest of the year, I think that will be a very helpful way to boost confidence in the economy, particularly consumer sentiment, and also provide some cost‑of‑living relief for people.
Speers:
Nearly every economist says productivity needs to be one of your top priorities as well. Is there more you can do to squeeze more productivity out of the economy?
Chalmers:
Yes, and I’m looking forward to rolling out the changes we announced on a national regime for occupational licensing, the non‑compete clauses change, the competition policy I’m working up with the states, reviving national competition policy – big priority for me as Treasurer – so there is an agenda there.
But also don’t forget, we commissioned from the Productivity Commission 5 big pieces of work on the main drivers – the main pillars of productivity in our economy – we’ll see that in the third quarter of this year. I’m looking forward to receiving that because we’ve got an agenda on productivity, but we can do more, and we will do more.
The best way to think about the difference between our first term and the second term that we won last night, first term was primarily inflation without forgetting productivity, the second term will be primarily productivity without forgetting inflation.
Speers:
That’s interesting, so the priority does shift now to productivity.
Chalmers:
And a much broader sense of it – human capital, competition policy, technology, energy, the care economy – these are where we’re going to find the productivity gains, and not quickly, but over the medium term.
Speers:
Looking at the politics of what happened last night, there were clearly surprises for you and for all of us watching what happened.
Chalmers:
I was trying to keep a lid on it on the panel.
Speers:
You can let loose now. What surprised you the most?
Chalmers:
Petrie I think, as David said. Petrie, if we can cling on there, that would be an extraordinary outcome. But I’m really grateful for what you said before, David, about Queensland and about these really quite remarkable women that Queensland is sending to the national parliament. You think about Madonna Jarrett, Renee Coffey, Kara Cook, Corinne Mulholland in the Senate, we’ve won back that second Senate seat in Queensland, and people will be hearing a lot about Corinne Mulholland. So very, very proud of the contribution that Queensland is making to this second term of an Albanese Labor government.
Speers:
You won’t be so lonely as a Queenslander in the Labor caucus. Just explain to us how it works, if you now have a much stronger Queensland contingent, does that need to be reflected on the front bench?
Chalmers:
Well, I think there’s a stronger contingent in a number of states, and so I always think you can never have too many Queenslanders, that’s why I was so pleased to see Anika Wells join the ranks of the Cabinet not that long ago. We’ve been really long on influence but short on numbers, and now we’re hopefully going to be long on influence and long on numbers.
Speers:
You’d be keen for another Cabinet or Ministry spot, at least from Queensland.
Chalmers:
I’m a Queenslander, and I think that most of the Cabinet should be Queenslanders, that’s just how we’re born and raised, but there’s a lot of good people around the country. Claire Clutterham in Sturt’s amazing.
Speers:
Do you expect there will be a bit of a refresh of the Ministry?
Chalmers:
That remains to be seen and I haven’t been focused on that at all. The Prime Minister will allocate the portfolios when the dust has settled on the count. We know who will be putting their hands up for ministries but that’s not a big part of my job, it’s not a big part of my focus.
Speers:
Now, finally, I just want to ask about the leadership and your future. You did say last night that you absolutely would support Anthony Albanese running again for a third term.
Chalmers:
Yes.
Speers:
What does that mean for your own leadership ambitions?
Chalmers:
Look, I’ve said on probably countless occasions now, if I can sit on the back deck in some period 20 years down the track and think that I was Treasurer in a great Labor government led from go to whoa by Anthony Albanese, I’d be very happy with that.
And I pay tribute to the Prime Minister. I can’t think of a campaign where a Prime Minister has campaigned more effectively than Anthony Albanese over the course of the last 5 weeks. I think he is the biggest explanation for why we turned around the trouble that we were in at the end of 2024 to the position that we won last night. It was an extraordinary campaign, and I think he deserves to be very proud. My expectation and my hope is that he serves a full term and runs again.
Speers:
You’re a student of Labor Prime Ministers past. How does Anthony Albanese now sit in the pantheon?
Chalmers:
He’s a Labor hero, and I think the outcome last night and the fact that his leadership has meant that we are surrounded now by even more terrific colleagues. Ali France in Dickson, unbelievable life story, I think he deserves to be very proud about that. But again, coming back to where we started, there is a humility here because we know that there’s a bunch of stuff that we have to address together, but he has every right to feel very proud, and we’re very proud of him.
I’m personally incredibly proud of him. I rang him during the day yesterday and told him how proud I was of him, and he deserves the lion’s share of the credit for what happened last night.
Speers:
Did you talk last night?
Chalmers:
No, not last night. I was with you all night sitting – I was sitting a metre and a half from you for about 6 hours probably in the end. I’ll probably have a yak with him today, but I rang him during the day before the result was known, and I said his was an extraordinary campaign, he’s got a lot to be proud of and we are certainly proud to be part of his team.
Speers:
Well, Treasurer Jim Chalmers, we do appreciate you backing up this morning. Thank you for joining us.
Chalmers:
Thanks, David.