GABRIELLA POWER:
Treasurer, thank you for your time this morning. You're out there on the ground handing out how‑to‑vote cards. What's your feeling? And what result are you expecting today?
JIM CHALMERS:
Good morning, Gabriella. Obviously, we've put forward the most wonderful local community champion and nurse educator from this part of the northern Gold Coast and we're focused on the issues that matter most to people: taking the edge off some of these cost‑of‑living pressures and cleaning up the mess left behind by Peter Dutton and Scott Morrison and the LNP. We've got realistic expectations about a safe, blue ribbon LNP seat here on the Gold Coast. This hasn't exactly been Labor heartland for Federal Labor for some decades now. The average swing against a government in a federal by‑election is about 4 per cent. So we've got realistic expectations but we've put forward a wonderful local champion as our candidate, and we're focused on the issues that matter most to people: the cost of living and cleaning up the LNP's mess.
POWER:
So what result or swing do you believe will be good for the government and of course bad for Peter Dutton?
CHALMERS:
Let's see how it goes tonight in the count, but I mean obviously if Peter Dutton doesn't get that average 4 per cent swing away from a government in a seat like this which is blue ribbon, Liberal territory then obviously that will be a particularly embarrassing outcome for him. Typically what happens in these by‑elections, with some rare exceptions, is there's a swing against the incumbent government. But as I said, we've put forward a great candidate, we're focused on cost of living and cleaning up the mess. And we'll see how the count progresses through the night, but we've got realistic expectations about it.
POWER:
While I've got you, I've got to ask you about the RBA. The RBA hasn't been performing as well as many expected it would in recent years. Do you expect that the RBA performance will improve under Michele Bullock?
CHALMERS:
My interest in this is making sure that the Reserve Bank is the best version of itself. And that's why I asked those three eminent panellists to review the Reserve Bank and it's why a big part of Michele Bullock's job when she takes it up on the 18th of September will be helping to implement and bed down the recommendations of that Reserve Bank Review. This appointment of Michele Bullock is really the best combination of experience and expertise but also a fresh leadership perspective at the bank. Michele Bullock is an outstanding economist but also a widely respected leader. And I think that will be really important as we go about making sure together, that the Reserve Bank is the best version of itself because it's such a key institution. Its decisions have such big implications for people right around the country.
POWER:
Michele Bullock has been at the RBA for almost four decades. Why is she the best person to change the culture of the organisation and also lead the RBA through its changes into the future?
CHALMERS:
I've been working on this appointment for some months as you'd expect. It's a big job and it's a big call. And so I've gone about it in a really methodical and considered and consultative way. And the more I thought about it, the more I recognised and appreciated and valued the particular combination of skills and attributes that Michele Bullock brings to the table. As I've said, outstanding economist, but really a well‑respected, well‑regarded leader and she thinks deeply about the institutional future of the Reserve Bank as well ‑ and that's important to me too. And so really the best combination of the attributes that we were looking for, obviously, having the heft and the gravitas and the experience at the Reserve Bank is an important part of that. But I am confident not just in Michele Bullock's dedication to the change program, which is necessary at the Reserve Bank, but also in her ability to bring people with her, and with a really inclusive leadership style. I think that will be important too.
POWER:
And there are reports now that the RBA could be cutting interest rates within 12 months. Is that something you'd expect to see?
CHALMERS:
I try not to pre‑empt decisions taken independently by the Reserve Bank or to second guess those decisions as well. That's been true under Governor Lowe and it will be true under Governor Bullock as well. They take their decisions independently. I have my own responsibilities, which is to hand down a budget which takes some of the edge off these cost‑of‑living pressures without adding to inflation. That's been my focus. The government has their job to do. The existing governor and the next governor have a different job to do as well.
POWER:
Treasurer Jim Chalmers, thanks so much for your time. We appreciate it.