James Glenday:
Now, we want to take you to that breaking news that we’ve got to hand over the past 20 minutes or so – 2 more Australians have been found safe in Nepal, taking the total number of Aussies missing since last week’s flood down to 36. And I’m happy to say we’re joined in person by the federal Treasurer, Jim Chalmers.
Jim, welcome to News Breakfast.
Jim Chalmers:
Thanks very much, James. Good morning, and to Catherine, too.
Glenday:
First of all, can we just get the latest on Nepal. What can you tell us about these 2 Australians?
Chalmers:
I can confirm that 2 more Australians were located overnight. That would be a huge relief to the loved ones of these 2 Australians who have been located. But we still have very serious concerns for the 36 Australians that we haven’t been able to locate yet. Australia is sending some of its best people to that part of the world. Around 40 personnel are being sent there, about half of them are there already, part of our $11 million commitment, because there are thousands of people still missing in Nepal and in Tibet. Good news that 2 Australians have been located overnight. We are concerned for the 36 who are still unaccounted for.
Catherine Murphy:
Hopefully we do get more good news. Treasurer, a year ago almost, we were in Canberra. We promised you that we would come and visit Queensland. We did make you wait a year, but we’re finally here. A lot has changed in that year. The prices of housing have fallen sharply. Buyers are nervous. They appear to be sitting on the sidelines. Did you underestimate the effect of the changes you made?
Chalmers:
Well, I think it’s really important to recognise that housing is a long‑term investment, and there are from time to time movements in house prices. In the last couple of decades I think there’s been at least 7 different times where house prices have come off a bit. And they’re coming off a bit now for a range of reasons. Interest rates, for example, one of the reasons why house prices were already coming off before the Budget. The broader economic conditions and some really important reforms that we’ve put in place to make the housing market fairer for first‑home buyers.
So there are a number of factors playing out here. House prices have come off a bit. That’s not especially unusual over the course of the last couple of decades. And even with house prices coming off a bit in the last 6 months or so, we’ve still seen prices rise, I think, in 15 of the last 20 months. We’ve still got house prices up about 25 per cent over the last 5 years. And all of that is a reminder that investing in housing is a long‑term proposition. We shouldn’t judge the impact of a budget or other factors over the first couple of months; we should judge it over the next couple of years.
Glenday:
On that, Treasury forecast that this would only put downward pressure on property prices by about 2 per cent. We were with you at the Budget. You said, ‘No, no, no, I’m pretty confident in those figures.’ Are they wrong? Is it going to be more than 2 per cent? Where do you think the floor is for Australian housing?
Chalmers:
Well, that assumption that Treasury made in the Budget is a 2‑year assumption. And so, again, I would encourage people to understand that. It’s a 2‑year assumption, not something about the last couple of months. It’s about the next couple of years. And even if you look at some of the more dramatic forecasts that some of the banks have put out, for example, about house prices, even in some of those forecasts they expect house prices to return to growth next year.
And so that’s another important reminder this is a long‑term market, and even when we see this volatility in the housing market which began before the Budget, over the next couple of years we expect house prices to continue to grow but more slowly, and we expect that first‑home buyers increasingly will be able to compete at auctions on weekends against people who were previously subsidised really generously by the taxpayer.
Glenday:
I think a lot of people would agree that they were subsidised. I’m curious as to at what point you go, ‘Yes, Treasury was right on this.’ In 18 months, do you look at this and do you do you reassess and go, ‘Right, we might need to make a change here’? Or do you think tax are – they’re done, your position is going to stay set until the next election?
Chalmers:
Well, it’s a 2‑year assumption, and a lot of people want to draw conclusions from the last couple of months rather than the next couple of years. I understand that. From our point of view, nothing has changed our view that this is a really important reform because for too long Australians, and particularly young Australians, were locked out of the housing market.
You have asked me about negative gearing and capital gains on so many occasions over the years that we’ve known each other, and that’s because the tax system has been part of the problem in the housing market rather than part of the solution for a quarter of a century now, and too many young people, whether it’s in this beautiful city of Brisbane or Logan to the south or right around Australia, too many people have been locked out of buying their first home. And that’s the challenge that we’re addressing with our tax reforms.
Murphy:
You talked about interest rate rises, which massively plays into this. How many more do you think Australian families can take?
Chalmers:
Well, I don’t want to say anything that predicts or pre‑empts future movement in interest rates. Obviously the independent Reserve Bank will weigh up all of the data and come to a decision in the usual way.
Glenday:
We’re not asking you to do that, though. We just want to know your view. Where do you think – does Australia need an interest rate rise or 2 to stamp out inflation?
Chalmers:
I’m not going to give free advice to the independent Reserve Bank. I think it’s self‑evident that the interest rate rises in the system already are putting additional pressure on people. I don’t think that’s an especially controversial view to hold. You can see in the national accounts, even, released in the last couple of days, the impact of those rate rises which are already in the system and will play out in the months ahead.
But beyond that, I’m not going to give free advice to the independent Reserve Bank. There are good reasons why treasurers of either political persuasion don’t do that.
Murphy:
Treasurer, we’ve been talking to people out on the road. We were in Logan last night. We saw you there –
Chalmers:
I really appreciate you guys going to Logan. Thanks for doing it.
Murphy:
We loved visiting. Everybody is talking about the Olympics. They’re so excited as well. Even if they don’t like sport, they’re excited about the infrastructure it will build, the developments.
Chalmers:
Yeah, yeah.
Murphy:
But the concern is there’s a lot of building to do. How does that get done in time, and are you going to have to splash more federal cash to ensure it does?
Chalmers:
Well, we’re already kicking in $3.4 billion, and that’s because we are big, enthusiastic backers of the Olympics. The Olympics are going to be amazing here. They’re going to be absolutely amazing. And it’s not unusual for there to be pressure on time frames, for there to be people who have a range of views about the best way to build, the best combination of venues. Logan City will be getting a brand new 9‑court indoor stadium at Logan Central, which is a wonderful development.
And it’s because of what you touched on, Catherine – the provision of these venues for the Olympics is really important, and the Olympics are going to be terrific. But it’s the legacy that matters even more. And we’re at South Bank here, and one of the reasons why South Bank is so terrific is because of World Expo 88. You know, the way that this part of Brisbane was developed for the Expo and the lasting legacy that it left for people – I bring the kids here all the time, beautiful place.
And I think it will be the same for the Olympic venues as well, whether it’s the one we’re building in Logan Central or all of the other venues. It will leave a lasting legacy. Of course there’ll be pressure on time frames. There always are. Of course there’ll be different views about the best way to do it. I think it’s going to be amazing. And I’m confident that we’ll be able to get it done in time.
Glenday:
You hold one of the safest Labor seats in Queensland, of course, around Logan. One Nation got just 6.6 per cent of the vote in your seat in 2025. If the current polling is right, are you expecting that they are going to be your biggest threat come 2 years’ time?
Chalmers:
If the election was today, but the election is not today. We’re not even halfway through this term of government, and our focus is on delivering real change in the housing market, the tax system –
Glenday:
But when you get around your electorate, do you feel like they are neck and neck with your party?
Chalmers:
Well, it’s not always easy to judge, you know, precisely. But obviously the nature of the 2‑party system has changed. But from my point of view, whether it’s the Liberals, the Nationals or One Nation, they are effectively the same when it comes to the danger that they pose to my local community and to workers in the country more broadly.
And the way that I operate, James – you and I have known each other a long time, and I suspect you know this already – I don’t take any votes for granted. I think every election is going to be close and contested, and that’s as it should be, whether that’s in my local electorate of Rankin to the south of here or in every electorate around Australia. We don’t take a single vote for granted, and we don’t take the outcome for the next election for granted either.
Glenday:
For some reason, I remember you standing with a sign on a highway after your last election.
Chalmers:
Saying thank you.
Glenday:
Saying thank you. That’s very kind. So a personal question before we let you go: at the moment it looks as though Anthony Albanese will go on and on and on and on. But if you believe the pundits, they often say that you’re one of the government’s best communicators, and even a future leader of the Labor Party. I’m not sure we’ve ever asked your view on this – at least not on air. Do you think of yourself as a future Prime Minister?
Chalmers:
No, I want to be the Treasurer. I want to be the Treasurer in an Albanese government that’s really successful, a long‑term government. I love working for and with Anthony, and for and with people in communities like this one. And that’s my ambition.
Glenday:
But Paul Keating’s your hero; he ended up as Prime Minister. One day, would you like to follow in his footsteps?
Chalmers:
Well, we’re not the same person. I am – I do consider him a friend, and I do spend time with Paul, but, you know, we’re not the same person. I would be very, very happy to be the Treasurer for every day of the Albanese Labor government, making difficult decisions on behalf of people, delivering that change that we desperately need in our economy so that the economy can work for people and not against people. That’s the limit of my ambition.
Murphy:
Okay, quick check before we let you go: everyone in Brisbane is up early for a run this morning.
Chalmers:
I didn’t want you to ask me that.
Murphy:
How many kilometres did you run? We know you’re a runner.
Chalmers:
No, but I feel – I’ve seen all these runners go past, and I feel so bad because I didn’t get a run in. I didn’t get a run in this morning. And my young fella woke up super early, and I ended up spending some time with him. But every runner that goes past makes me feel bad about not clocking any Ks this morning. I assume you guys are lunchtime runners now because of morning TV, but I have no excuse this morning. I should have got a gallop in, but I didn’t.
Glenday:
There you go. Yeah, not sure we’re lunchtime runners or runners at any time, but Jim Chalmers, thank you very much for getting up early and having a chat.
Chalmers:
Really appreciate you being here. Thanks.
Murphy:
Thank you.