10 May 2023

Interview with Karl Stefanovic and Sarah Abo, Today Show, Channel 9

Note

Subjects: Budget, inflation, surplus, stage three tax cuts

KARL STEFANOVIC:

Well, we are back in the black. I just thought I needed to do something to rev it up a little bit - bit of "Acca Dacca." The first surplus in 15 years. Jim Chalmers is hoping to help Aussies struggling with the cost of living. He joins us now.

Jim, good morning to you. How are you feeling?

JIM CHALMERS:

I'm well, thanks Karl, how are you?

SARAH ABO:

Probably better than Karl, I reckon, Jim.

STEFANOVIC:

Well, you know, there's been lots of talk since it all happened last night, all the commentary following all of that, and still the questions persist about whether the Budget is inflationary. Is it?

CHALMERS:

No, it isn't, Karl. The money that we're spending in the Budget is really carefully calibrated and carefully designed so that it takes some of the edge off these cost-of-living pressures rather than add to inflation. Not all of the spending hits the Budget at once. And we found a way, really, with the substantially responsible and restrained approach to spending to make sure that when we get these big upward revisions to revenue, we're letting most of it flow through to the Budget, so we can make the Budget more responsible and sustainable, so we can afford to help people through difficult times without adding to the inflationary pressures that people are facing.

ABO:

Treasurer how do you reckon your mates at the RBA view this Budget?

CHALMERS:

Well, I don't speak for them, obviously, but I'm pretty confident. I'm quite confident that what we handed down last night will take some of the edge off inflation rather than add to it. I don't pre-empt the decisions that they take, but certainly inflation has been the defining influence on this Budget. Not just the cost-of-living package and its design, but also the way that we're investing in growing the economy and the restraint that we've shown in really one of the most responsible Budgets that people have seen for a really long time. We've made a substantial difference to the Budget. We've made it much more responsible and sustainable. And that's how we can afford to provide some of this help for people doing it tough.

STEFANOVIC:

Okay. There's a massive boost to immigration that clearly has to affect house prices. Rents have to go up. How is that not inflationary?

CHALMERS:

Well, first of all, the increase in the net overseas migration number, it's not a government policy or a target. It's driven largely by the fact that the students are coming back quicker and the tourists are coming back quicker than anticipated and fewer Australians are leaving Australia for work. But really the most important thing about this is that even with this increase that we forecast in the Budget last night, it still doesn't make up for what we lost during COVID. So, compared to what we thought a couple of years ago, the population down the track will be a bit smaller than what we anticipated or what the former government anticipated and that's because the hit to migration and population from COVID - we don't actually catch that up even though we've got this faster rebound in students and tourists.

STEFANOVIC:

Hang on, housing prices will level off or go down and rents will level off and go down.

CHALMERS:

I'm not making those kind of predictions, Karl. I'm just pointing out that even with the return of students and tourists, we still don't expect to make up for what we lost during COVID. But the pressures on the rental market, the pressures on the housing market are real. I announced some new tax breaks last night to try and build more rental properties. We've also got in the Parliament a Housing Australia Future Fund to try and do that. And I also increased the Commonwealth Rent Assistance payment last night in the Budget too, in recognition that people are paying higher rents than we would like.

ABO:

Obviously, with any of these Budgets, Treasurer, not everyone is happy. There is an increase to JobSeeker and other payments to the tune of $40 a fortnight. Of course, that's important, but it doesn't seem like it's enough. A lot of welfare advocates want more. With a $4.2 billion surplus, couldn't some of that extra cash have been spent on welfare?

CHALMERS:

Well, first of all, the surplus that we're forecasting for this year is an important demonstration of our efforts to get the Budget on a more sustainable footing. But a lot of the structural pressures on the Budget intensify rather than ease, even with all of the progress that we made last night. But I do genuinely understand and respect that there will be advocacy groups who would have liked us to do more. There are also some people who would like to have not changed the JobSeeker payment at all. But we think we've struck a good balance here. We've provided some help where we can but in an affordable way without blowing the Budget. And also a number of people who get that increase in the base rate of JobSeeker that we announced last night will also be eligible for assistance with their rent or assistance with their energy bills. So, I encourage people to look right across the cost-of-living package. We've done as much as we can, but in an affordable and responsible way that doesn't make this inflation challenge worse.

STEFANOVIC:

Can you make a pledge this morning that you aren't going to make changes to tax?

CHALMERS:

Well, there are five main changes in tax in the Budget last night - the PRRT and superannuation compliance and tobacco and the other changes that we're making in the tax system.

STEFANOVIC:

You know what I mean, though.

CHALMERS:

Well, the stage three tax cuts are legislated. They haven't been part of our deliberations. We haven't changed our position on that. They come in in more than a year's time and we've had other priorities in the interim. This cost-of-living package is particularly for the most vulnerable but also –

STEFANOVIC:

Okay, so – sorry to interrupt. This is just the one thing I wanted to get squared away. You're saying all of that, but you can close the door on any future change this morning.

CHALMERS:

Well, I think I've been pretty clear, Karl. We haven't changed our position on it. We actually haven't discussed, in the context of this Budget changing our position on that. They are legislated, they are in the Budget, bottom line. I provided the costing of them when I was asked by one of your counterparts.

KARL:

You're leaving the door open, Jim.

CHALMERS:

I don't think I am, Karl. I don't think I am. We haven't changed our view. We haven't discussed changing our view. They're legislated and they're in the Budget.

STEFANOVIC:

Right. Good to talk to you, Treasurer.

ABO:

Thank you, Treasurer.