KARL STEFANOVIC:
Treasurer Jim Chalmers is in Washington DC. Treasurer, good morning to you. I can almost see you in those baggy jeans hitting up City Rowers back in the day. How real though is the recession threat for us right now?
JIM CHALMERS:
It's not our expectation in Australia that our economy will fall into recession but we are expecting a pretty substantial slowdown in our economy as a consequence of what's happening around the world combined with higher interest rates as well and so that's our expectation. But when you compare our situation to a lot of the countries that I'll be conferring with over the course of the next day and a half here in Washington DC, Australia does have a lot going for us. We've got a lot coming at us from around the world but we've got a lot going for us as well - low unemployment, the beginnings of wages growth, really good prices for our exports on world markets. And so I am relatively optimistic about the future of our economy and our country but it is going to get more difficult when it comes to the global conditions over the next year or so and that will impact us in Australia.
STEFANOVIC:
The RBA has this morning admitted they botched the nation's recovery after the pandemic, not exactly a glowing endorsement of your travel buddy Philip Lowe. Do you have any faith in them to navigate through these tougher economic circumstances?
CHALMERS:
I do, they take their decisions independently and I think it's appropriate that they explain and defend those decisions publicly as well and that's what we saw this week with some pretty frank commentary from a couple of members of the Board. My job's a bit different to theirs. They've got to manage interest rates and take those decisions independently. My job is to focus on the Budget in less than four weeks' time and that will be all about providing a bit of cost-of-living relief to people in a responsible and affordable way, also trying to lay the foundations for growth in our economy, but also making us more resilient to these kinds of global economic developments that we are susceptible to and that's why it's so important that I am conferring with my colleagues and counterparts from right around the world here in DC over the next day and a half or so. It will be a brief trip, a busy trip, but an important one as we put the finishing touches on the Budget.
STEFANOVIC:
Yeah, look, the forecasts are bleak internationally. The Commonwealth Bank back here says high inflation, lower wages is jamming their customers. The unemployment numbers are out today. What can you expect from that?
CHALMERS:
I'm not going to make a prediction, they will be out in the next few hours. But what we have seen pretty remarkably over the last little while is unemployment with a three in front of it. With all of these challenges that we've got in our economy and particularly in the global economy, that's been a pretty remarkable outcome. The first six months of the Albanese government was the fastest jobs growth for a new government over a six-month period I think on record. That's one of the things we have going for us even if unemployment shifts part of a percentage point in either direction, it still has been the case that that's been a source of considerable strength, that low unemployment with a three in front of it. We'll see what the number says later today, but we've got a lot of things going for us. And so really my message to your viewers, Karl, in addition to trying to ignore that question about City Rowers and the baggy jeans, is to say that yes, things will become more difficult. Yes, things will become more difficult but we do have a lot going for us. We do understand that people are under the pump, we'll help where we can but we'll do that really responsibly because the best thing that we can do as a government when the global economy is as weak and as complex and challenging as it is right now is to provide that responsible economic management at home and that's what the Budget will be all about.
STEFANOVIC:
All right, Jim Chalmers reporting live from outside the White House in Washington DC.