MONIQUE WRIGHT:
New economic data out today for retail trade and job vacancies could be a crucial factor in next week's interest rate decision. It comes as the annual inflation figure eased to 5.6 per cent last month, down 1.2 per cent, mainly thanks to falling petrol prices. It could take the pressure off the Reserve Bank and lead to a stop in those interest rate rises. Joining us now is Treasurer Jim Chalmers. Good morning. Morning to you, Treasurer. Thanks for being with us. So, is this enough for the Reserve Bank to press pause on rate rises, do you think, next week?
JIM CHALMERS:
Good morning, Monique, to you and all your viewers. Look, what I try and do as the Treasurer of the country is not pre‑empt or second guess the decisions that are taken independently by the Reserve Bank. But certainly those numbers yesterday were welcome news when it came to inflation coming off a bit more in our economy now. We recognise that people are still under the pump, people are still doing it tough but there's a very clear trend now when it comes to inflation – it has been coming off quite substantially since its peak around Christmas time, and that's a good thing. And when you think about the conditions that we confront right now, obviously people are doing it tough, we expect our economy to slow, but we go into this period of global economic uncertainty from a position of genuine strength. We've got inflation moderating, we've got record jobs and we've got a bigger budget surplus and all of those things will help us withstand some of the pressures that people are feeling around Australia right now.
WRIGHT:
Yeah, of course, we understand that the Reserve Bank is independent from government, but you must have a view. Is enough enough? How many more can people withstand?
CHALMERS:
Well, I certainly understand, Monique, that when interest rates go up, it makes life harder for people with a mortgage. And each time that interest rates have gone up since before the election and continuing afterwards, that has tightened the screws on family budgets. We certainly understand that the Reserve Bank and its board have got a job to do. They do that independently, without political pressure, and I've got a job to do as well and I take responsibility for providing this cost‑of‑living help without adding to inflation. also investing in the future of the economy and getting the budget in much better nick, so that we can afford to do the kinds of things that we need to do to help people through what we expect will be difficult months ahead.
WRIGHT:
Just on that, you mentioned there, the surplus yesterday, you announced the country's first surplus in 15 years. Is it a difficult message to send out to people when they're seeing that the government's got this big surplus, they're at home watching and they can't afford to buy milk and bread?
CHALMERS:
No, I think it's important to recognise that the bigger surplus that we are now expecting for this year doesn't come at the expense of cost‑of‑living help for families. In fact, by getting the budget in much better nick, by finding savings in the budget and banking these upward revisions to revenue and showing spending restraint, it actually makes it possible from that much stronger foundation to provide the $15 billion of cost‑of‑living relief that we had in the budget. And some of that kicks in next week. The cheaper early childhood education, the bill relief for people when it comes to their electricity. There's a whole range of things that we are doing, and we're able to do that because we're working so hard to manage the budget in the most responsible and methodical way so that we can build this foundation to help people and invest in the economy to make it more productive and grow out of what will be a difficult period ahead because of what's happening in the global economy.
WRIGHT:
Jim Chalmers, we know you've got another interview to get to. We appreciate your time this morning. Thank you.
CHALMERS:
Thanks so much, Monique.