NATALIE BARR:
Well, Federal Labor has taken a hit in the latest Newspoll this morning, heading towards forming only a minority government at the next election. Primary support for the party is now lower than what it was at the 2022 election, falling to 32 per cent compared to the Coalition's 37.
The results suggest that any benefit gained by the government from its stage three tax cut revamp has faded as focus now turns to the May Budget.
For more let's bring in the man who is writing that Budget, Treasurer Jim Chalmers. Good morning. It's all on you. What do you reckon about the latest Newspoll figures?
JIM CHALMERS:
I think opinion polls haven't been especially successful at even predicting the outcome of elections a week out, so I don't like their chances a year or so out.
We don't take the outcome of the next election for granted. I've always thought the next election will be close and it will be hard fought, and I think that's really what these polls are showing.
When it comes to the Budget, we put budgets together based on the economic cycle not the political cycle. My job is to do the right and responsible thing, to work through all the issues in a methodical way, put a premium on what's affordable in the Budget and to help people with these cost‑of‑living pressures that they are confronting.
BARR:
But you do your own polling, we know that, so you do take notice of some polling, and isn't that the reason why you came up with the stage three tax cuts, because you didn't have a crash hot year last year and you sat around at Christmas and said, "hey, what do we do now?"
CHALMERS:
No. What we did with the tax cuts is over Christmas we tried to understand that people were under, in some cases extreme cost‑of‑living pressures, and we had a responsibility to do something about that but we had to do it in a way that didn't put any extra pressure on inflation, and so it became increasingly clear over summer that the best way to do that would be to recalibrate those tax cuts so that every Australian taxpayer gets a tax cut but a bigger tax cut for 84 per cent of Australian taxpayers to help them deal with these cost‑of‑living pressures.
Cost‑of‑living pressures were the primary motivation for the changes that we made to the tax cuts, and I think that comes back to what I was saying a moment ago, Nat. Whether it's budgets, whether it's how we implement our tax policies, really what we're trying to do here is understand people are under cost‑of‑living pressure, to do what we can in a responsible, methodical and affordable way to respond to that, and to make sure that our economic policies are about the economy and not necessarily just about the politics.
BARR:
Are you kind of happy that Peter Dutton's polling isn't too crash hot though?
CHALMERS:
Oh look, I really don't obsess over these polls, Nat – I read them, like everyone in this place I'm interested in them, but I don't pore over them, I don't obsess over them. What I do pore over is trying to land this Budget in May, less than eight weeks away, seven weeks tomorrow, and that will be the best combination of a bit of a cost‑of‑living relief, some more budget repair, but also trying to lay some of the foundations for growth in our economy into the future too.
BARR:
Okay. Let's talk about the Fair Work Commission which is meeting in a few days, I think. What are you backing, what's your government backing as far as a pay rise for low‑paid workers?
CHALMERS:
Well our submission on Thursday will reflect our desire to ensure that low‑paid workers don't go backwards. And this is consistent with the submissions we've made to the Fair Work Commission on earlier occasions.
Our focus this week, and indeed every week, is ensure that people can earn more and keep more of what they earn. Earn more –
BARR:
So 4.1 per cent? You're backing the inflation figure increase?
CHALMERS:
Our submission doesn't put a number on it, but we make it clear, as we have on earlier occasions, we don't want low paid workers to go backwards. Low paid workers are disproportionately impacted by these cost‑of‑living pressures, that's why we want to see them earn more, that's why the tax cuts are all about them keeping more of what they earn as well, because one of the best ways that we can help people deal with these cost‑of‑living pressures in our economy is to make sure that we get wages growing again after a decade of wage stagnation.
BARR:
Okay. So if you don't want them to go backwards that would indicate you want it to keep up with inflation, which is a 4.1 per cent increase that the government would be backing?
CHALMERS:
Yes, we want to make sure that their real wages are growing. We've got real wages growth in our economy for the first time in years ahead of schedule. A big reason for that is the way that we've enthusiastically championed the low paid in our economy and that's what we'll do again on Thursday when we make our submission.
BARR:
Okay. Treasurer, thank you for your time.
CHALMERS:
Thanks, Nat.