PETER STEFANOVIC:
The Intergenerational Report is coming out today. The latest drop this morning on the cost of climate change – $420 billion over the next 40 years – given it's so far off into the distance, how accurate can those numbers be?
JIM CHALMERS:
Good morning, Pete. I think the important thing about the Intergenerational Report is really to understand the big trends and transitions that are happening in our economy and in our society. Obviously when you're forecasting 40 years out there's an element of uncertainty – that's been the case in all of the intergenerational reports, but a really important opportunity to recognise a couple of things. First of all, the Government's major focus is on the cost‑of‑living pressures that people are confronting right now but secondly, we are and we should be able to focus on the future as well and how we maximise the opportunities in a world of churn and change. And that's what the Intergenerational Report is all about – understanding the big trends and transitions in our economy and our society and positioning Australia to be a major beneficiary of that change rather than a victim of that change.
STEFANOVIC:
Okay, so on climate and on the future, if we couple them together as doubt grows over renewable targets by 2030, if we're talking 40 years, why not pursue nuclear instead of just writing it off? Smaller modular reactors can be built in that time.
CHALMERS:
Our position on nuclear reactors and nuclear power is driven by the economics – it takes longer and it costs more and Australia's got an abundance of opportunity when it comes to renewable energy which is the cheapest form of new energy in our economy. That's our position. Our opponents want to build nuclear reactors, it's for them to explain it, it's for them to cost them up and to explain to the Australian people where they want to put them. We think that there are vast industrial opportunities for cleaner and cheaper, more reliable, increasingly renewable energy – that is overwhelmingly the view of the investor community as well and we want to work with investors, with business and with the broader community to make the most of this clean energy transformation and to make sure we roll out this transformation in our interests.
STEFANOVIC:
Right but my point being – if we're talking so far into the distance and we'll be talking clean energy, why not at least entertain the idea of nuclear?
CHALMERS:
Because we're building new sources of energy generation and transmission right now and that will position us for cleaner and cheaper energy into the future, and create more jobs and more opportunities for more people in more parts of the country – that's our objective. We've got a broad, ambitious climate change and energy agenda. You and I have spoken about it before on this show. It's one of the most important things that we can do to position Australians to be beneficiaries of the way that our economy and our society is changing over time.
STEFANOVIC:
Okay, fuel excise is going to drop off as more folks drift to electric cars, the same for tobacco as more folks stop smoking which is good news but where do you see the make up there? Where will taxes have to be increased?
CHALMERS:
We've shown already that we think that there is the capacity to make our multinationals pay a fairer share of tax here in Australia, we're changing the arrangements for the PRRT, we've made changes – which seemed controversial at the time, but weren't especially controversial – about people with more than $3 million in their super, we've changed the tax arrangements for tobacco tax compliance. And so what we've shown already in our first 15 months or so in office across two budgets is we can get the budget in much better nick – a combination of spending restraint, finding $40 billion of savings and these meaningful tax reforms and as a consequence of our efforts and our responsible economic management – we already turned a deficit for last year from $78 billion into a surplus of $20 billion plus. We've shown we're able to get the budget in much better nick but we know that there's more work to do on that front too.
STEFANOVIC:
Okay. Are we letting too many people into the country?
CHALMERS:
First of all, it's important to recognise that even as the migration numbers are recovering, that's not a government target or policy, that's the demand driven part of the program – it largely reflects the fact that international students are coming back quicker and people on tourist visas as well and that's why we're seeing these slightly higher numbers. But a bit of perspective there on a couple of different fronts – even with this recovery in the migration numbers the last year or so – and we're expecting it to continue for another year or two – we still haven't filled the gaps left by COVID. We're still behind where we thought we'd be in terms of migration and population a few years ago so that's an important perspective. The other thing is – even as our population grows into the future in the Intergenerational Report, it's actually going to grow slower over the next 40 years than it has been growing to this point. Population growth is slowing and migration is playing a smaller part in that over time, so we need to recognise that too.
STEFANOVIC:
Just a final one here, Treasurer, some big numbers are about to drop – this is a few minutes away. Qantas is expecting to announce a $2.5 billion profits, that's the expectation at this stage. Just ahead of that – if that comes to fruition – is now about the time then that you'd like to see prices come down for flights?
CHALMERS:
We've made it clear whether it's aviation, whether it's our supermarkets or more broadly, when input costs come down – and they have been over the course of recent months – then we want to see prices reflect that as well. One of the reasons why we've got this broader review of our competition policy settings is we want to put downward pressure on prices where we can – that's a really important motivation. Qantas will release their figures, it's for them to explain those, whether it's today or when they appear before a parliamentary committee, I think, early next week.
STEFANOVIC:
Okay, yep and that's all to be confirmed in the next couple of minutes. Treasurer Jim Chalmers, thanks for your time as always. We'll talk to you soon.