Jim Chalmers:
We’ve made substantial and sustained progress on inflation, and we expect this week’s inflation numbers to reflect that. Any headline inflation with a 2 in front of it shows that inflation has more than halved since we came to government. Any headline inflation number with a 2 in front of it shows that the inflation rate is within the Reserve Bank’s target band. And any progress on underlying inflation is welcome as well. New numbers, which we’ve released today, show that the most progress on inflation over the last year or so has been made in areas like electricity and petrol and furniture and toys and textiles. This reflects the very substantial, the very sustained progress that Australia has made when it comes to the fight against inflation. Australia has got inflation down and wages up, kept unemployment low and created 1.1 million jobs under this Albanese Labor government.
We also know that Australians would be thousands of dollars worse off if Peter Dutton had his way, and they will be worse off still if he wins the next election. Because of the position that Peter Dutton has taken on tax cuts and energy bill relief and on wages, we know that Australians would be thousands of dollars worse off if he had his way. And those household budgets are at further risk if he wins the next election.
What we’ve been able to do as a country, together as Australians over the course of the last couple of years has been truly remarkable. Inflation peaked 2 years ago. It was higher than 6 per cent and rising when we came to office. We expect headline inflation to have a 2 in front of it on Wednesday. That shows the progress we’ve made on inflation. Other countries have had to pay for that kind of progress with much higher unemployment, and we have been able to avoid that. Average unemployment under this government is the lowest of any government in the last 50 years, and that shows we’ve been able to make that substantial and sustained progress on inflation, while we keep wages growing, while we keep unemployment low, while we roll out the cost‑of‑living relief at the same time as we deliver 2 surpluses and a $200 billion positive turnaround in the budget and get that Liberal debt down.
And so this election will be a choice between the Albanese Labor government helping with the cost of living, getting on top of inflation and building Australia’s future, or Peter Dutton and the Coalition who would make Australians worse off, who opposed our cost‑of‑living help and who would take Australia backwards as a consequence. Australians have been doing it tough, we know that, and that’s why the cost‑of‑living relief is so important. And that’s why the progress that we’ve made together on inflation is so important as well.
We’ll see what those inflation numbers say on Wednesday. Any headline number with a 2 in front of it will show it’s more than halved on our watch, will show it’s in the Reserve Bank target band, and any progress on underlying inflation will obviously be welcome as well. Happy to take your questions.
Journalist:
If headline inflation comes in under that, under 3 per cent, with a 2 in front of it, do you expect that to move the RBA to a rate cut in February?
Chalmers:
I don’t want to predict or pre‑empt decisions taken appropriately and independently by the Reserve Bank Board and the Reserve Bank Governor. I’ve gone out of my way to ensure that I have focused on my responsibilities. My responsibility is to get inflation down and wages up, keep unemployment low and repair the budget. And we’ve made welcome and encouraging progress on all of those fronts as Australians since this Labor government came to office. The Reserve Bank will weigh up all of the data in the economy, Wednesday’s inflation numbers, recent jobs numbers, what’s going on around the world and what’s going on around our country. They will make their decision independently. I don’t want to predict or pre‑empt the decision that they will take.
Journalist:
Will you be disappointed if they don’t cut in February? Because we’ve only got one more meeting after that, before the election.
Chalmers:
Again I don’t engage in that kind of commentary about those decisions that the Reserve Bank takes independently. I’ll make this broader point. If you look around the world, in the US for example, inflation is higher and rising than it is here in Australia. We’ve been able to make this progress on inflation without seeing the kind of spike in unemployment that other countries have had to endure. If you look around the world, the UK has had a recession, New Zealand’s in recession, there’s higher unemployment in Canada, the US, New Zealand, Europe, the UK and elsewhere. And so what we’ve been able to do together as Australians and every Australian worker, every Australian employee deserves the credit for this, we’ve been able to make substantial and sustained progress on inflation, while we keep unemployment low, while we keep wages growing. We know that people are still under pressure, and we know that the job is not finished. We know that no matter what the number says on Wednesday, it’s not mission accomplished when it comes to inflation. And that’s why it’s so important that we continue the responsible economic management that has been a hallmark of this government and which has helped ensure that inflation has come down, wages have gone up, unemployment stayed low, and we’ve got the Liberal debt down at the same time.
Journalist:
Treasurer, the Aussie dollar remains weak [inaudible]. What impact will that and that unemployment figure you spoke about have on [inaudible] inflation?
Chalmers:
First of all, the Australian dollar has come up a bit in the last few days, but it has bounced around, somewhere around the 61 to 63 cent mark over the last few weeks. It’s been volatile and it has been low, and we understand that. That is more a reflection of what’s going on around the world than it is a reflection of our own economy. Typically, our exchange rate is most impacted by what’s happening in the US and what’s happening in China, and that’s what we’re seeing right now with the volatility in the Australian dollar. Now, when the dollar is low, it makes imports more expensive, it makes our exporters more competitive. And so there are swings and roundabouts when the dollar is low. It’s come up a little bit. The Reserve Bank will consider all of the data that they have in the economy. Most particularly, they’re usually focused on the inflation rate and the unemployment rate, as they are asked to focus on, but they will factor in all of these other developments too.
Journalist:
Is the government considering further funding for major infrastructure works such as the Sunshine Coast Rail?
Chalmers:
We’re making enormous investments in infrastructure in Queensland. One of the biggest investments that we’ve announced this year is more than $7 billion for the Bruce Highway. In my last Budget, we found room with Catherine King and Katy Gallagher and the colleagues for an extra $1.15 billion investment in Sunshine Coast Rail, and that takes the total investment to $2.75 billion in Stage 1 of that project. So we are enthusiastic about Sunshine Coast Rail. We have made huge commitments to Stage 1 of that project, and we will continue to work with the state government to make sure that we can fund the kind of infrastructure that people need and deserve here in the best state in the Commonwealth.
Journalist:
What do you make of Jarrod Bleijie’s comments where he said that the government has shunned Queenslanders by minimizing the infrastructure priority list?
Chalmers:
It’s ridiculous. Frankly, it’s ridiculous. These are the same characters who said before the state election that they could get the budget in much better condition without spending cuts and without tax hikes and they’re discovering how empty their rhetoric was before the election. They’re looking for someone to blame, unfortunately. If you think about that $7.2 billion investment in the Bruce, you think about the $2.75 billion investment in Sunshine Coast Rail, I think the total is up to about $28 billion of investment in Queensland. I think the comments of the Deputy Premier are frankly ridiculous and laughable. We’re big investors in Queensland, and that’s because we understand how central this state is to our national economy. We’re making huge investments in connecting communities and local economies so that Queensland can be an even bigger part of the story of national economic growth.
Journalist:
Are you concerned about the financial state of the Star Casino?
Chalmers:
Obviously we’re monitoring developments when it comes to the Star company. We know that they’ve got an ask in when it comes to tax relief from the states, I think primarily Queensland and New South Wales where they operate. Obviously, there’s a role for regulators to keep an eye on things, and they are doing that. I’ve checked in on that. But overwhelmingly, any support for that company is the responsibility of the states.
Journalist:
So the federal government shouldn’t get involved?
Chalmers:
That’s not our intention. The national role here is to make sure that the regulators are on the case, and they are. To make sure that the entitlements are available if the worst comes to pass. We’re monitoring developments when it comes to Star. We’re aware of the asks they’ve got in with the state governments. We’re aware that the regulators are keeping an eye on things. Beyond that, I think the role here is primarily for the states.
Journalist:
Treasurer, the Finance Minister said today [inaudible] should we expect a Budget before we head to the polls?
Chalmers:
We’re working on the Budget, and the timing of the election will be up to the Prime Minister. But Katy and I, the Expenditure Review Committee, the Cabinet, the government more broadly, we’re working towards a Budget towards the end of March, on the timeframe that we have released.
The defining feature of that Budget will be responsible economic management. Because it’s responsible economic management which has helped allow this country to make progress on inflation, get wages up, keep unemployment low, find $92 billion in savings, bank most of the upward revisions to revenue, deliver 2 surpluses, get this year’s deficit down, get the debt down by $177 billion and save tens of billions of dollars in debt interest. The next Budget, the next Labor Budget, will be defined by that responsible economic management, because that is part of the story when it comes to the progress that Australia has made.
Journalist:
Treasurer will we see some cost‑of‑living relief, like the energy rebates, being put in in that Budget before the election?
Chalmers:
Our focus is on rolling out the cost‑of‑living help that we’ve already announced and already budgeted for. Saturday was the anniversary of those tax cuts that Peter Dutton was so filthy about he wanted to call an election to prevent them. We’re still rolling out the energy bill relief, that’s an important part of the way that we’re helping families and pensioners with cost‑of‑living pressure.
Cheaper early education, cheaper medicines, student debt relief, fee‑free TAFE, getting wages moving again, these are these are the things we’re focused on. We’ve budgeted for them, we’re rolling them out right now. And that’s because more than acknowledge that people are under pressure, we’re doing something about it in the most responsible way that we can, and not instead of getting the budget in better nick, but as well as getting the budget in much better nick.
Journalist:
Should QUT be sanctioned for holding an anti‑racist symposium?
Chalmers:
Well I thought that was completely unacceptable what we saw at QUT. I think to be fair, the Vice Chancellor of QUT has also acknowledged that with her apology. There is absolutely no place in any Australian university or any Australian community for anti‑Semitism. I think particularly on today’s anniversary, it’s especially important that we make sure that we wipe out and stamp out the scourge of anti‑Semitism wherever it exists, and the universities obviously need to be part of that.
The Education Minister – to his credit – made his displeasure known. The Vice Chancellor of QUT across the river there – to her credit – made her displeasure known. They will go through the processes that they need to go through to make sure that this doesn’t happen again.
Journalist:
What else should be done to make sure it doesn’t happen again?
Chalmers:
The university has to make sure that it doesn’t happen again. And more broadly, governments and leaders have got a role to play when it comes to educating people about the evils of anti‑Semitism. And I think particularly on today’s anniversary, listening to the words that have been expressed by the colleagues and by community leaders right around the world. We always need to be vigilant when it comes to anti‑Semitism, that applies to the universities, just as it applies to all of the communities around Australia
Journalist:
The Coalition today has nudged ahead in polling. Why do you think support for Mr Albanese has dropped so low?
Chalmers:
First of all, we don’t obsess over polls. Obviously, we notice the polls when they’re released. They don’t always say the same thing. What really matters is the choice that people will have on election day. And the choice that people will have on election day is between Anthony Albanese helping with the cost of living, strengthening Medicare, fighting inflation and building Australia’s future, or Peter Dutton and the Coalition, who will make people worse off by going after Medicare and wages again, pushing up electricity bills with this nuclear insanity that he’s on about, and taking Australia backwards. That will be the choice that people will confront.
These polls – from time to time I think – reflect the very real and very genuine pressure that people feel. And the choice that people will make is between a government which doesn’t just acknowledge that pressure, but is doing something about it helping with the cost of living, versus an opposition – Peter Dutton and the Coalition, who would have made people thousands of dollars worse off if they had their way over the last couple of years, and who would make people worse off still if they win the election, and so that’s the choice. We see these polls. I think they’ll come out with increasing regularity between now and the election. We understand that. They reflect the pressures that people genuinely feel. We ask people to consider the choice between Peter Dutton and the Coalition, who will make people worse off, not better off, and take Australia backwards, or Anthony Albanese and this Labor government helping with the cost of living, getting on top of this inflation challenge, strengthening Medicare and building a future of this country that we can all be proud of.
Journalist:
Will the federal government [inaudible, question refers to Infrastructure Australia’s priority list]
Chalmers:
Infrastructure Australia is an important part of our considerations when it comes to the enormous infrastructure pipeline that we’re rolling out right around Australia. We work closely with Infrastructure Australia, we work closely and in a collaborative and respectful way with the states and territories when it comes to the infrastructure pipeline as well.
We’re making a very substantial investment in Sunshine Coast Rail. We’ve made a provision, $2.75 billion, $1.15 billion just in the last Budget. That’s because we’re enthusiastic about Sunshine Coast Rail. We know that we need to work with Infrastructure Australia and with the states and territories, in this case, Queensland, to turn these plans into reality. But we’re big investors in this infrastructure pipeline in Queensland, because we’re big believers in Queenslanders and in their economy. We know if we want the national economy to grow strongly and in a sustained way, then Queensland’s got to continue to be a big and important part of the story, and our infrastructure investments reflect that.
Journalist:
Are you committed to funding [inaudible]?
Chalmers:
We’ve made our commitment to Stage 1 now, we thought that was most appropriate. There are some considerations that have to take place now in the usual way to make sure that that money that we have provisioned for and committed is spent in the most responsible way. But we have shown a willingness, we’ve shown an enthusiasm, we’ve got a good record of investing tens of billions of dollars in Queensland’s infrastructure, and we will consider any further steps on rail or other kinds of investments in the most responsible way and in that light.
Thanks very much.