31 January 2021

Doorstop interview, Barton Cafe, Melbourne

Note

Subjects: JobKeeper; border closures; industrial relations;

JAMES PATERSON:

Good afternoon everyone. My name is James Paterson, I’m a Liberal Senator for Victoria. It’s great to be here with James Laskie, one of the co-owners of the Barton Milk Bar behind us here in Hawthorn and the Federal Treasurer and local Member for Kooyong, Josh Frydenberg. We’re here today because for James’ business, last year was a tough year, like it was for a lot of other Victorian businesses. But they got through and here they are now, stronger than ever, standing on their own two feet. James will tell you in a minute about how JobKeeper helped get their business through tough times and about how the local community rallied around them and how they’re stronger than ever. James.

JAMES LASKIE: 

Thanks James. Look, 100 per cent we wouldn’t be open today if it wasn’t for the support that we’ve had through the last year. We were able to still do takeaway, a huge win for us. And then we also, from the Government, we got JobKeeper and we had 12 staff members on JobKeeper. And if it wasn’t for those two things, you know, we wouldn’t be open today. And so, support of the local community as well, has really seen us bounce back and the wheels are back in motion now so we’re looking forward to a better year than last year that’s for sure.

JOSH FRYDENBERG:

Thanks James, I’ll jump in there. Firstly thanks James Paterson, Senator Paterson, for inviting us down here today but also for your strong advocacy on behalf of the people of Victoria both in the Parliament and through your local community. James, congratulations on being another small business success story. Another small business that has graduated from Jobkeeper. James and his staff join more than two million Australians who have graduated off JobKeeper since October and more than 450,000 businesses that have graduated off JobKeeper since October. This is what JobKeeper was all about, to provide support in these businesses hour of need, to enable James to keep those 12 staff on board and when the foot traffic came back, when the loyal customers were able to come back through the doors, that he would have the staff ready to go to serve them and he would be able to keep their jobs. It’s been an absolutely critical economic lifeline for the people of Australia. At its peak, 3.6 million Australians were benefiting from JobKeeper and around one million businesses. What we’ve seen in today’s numbers for the month of November that again, JobKeeper participants have fallen as the economic recovery gets underway. A further 35,000 Australians came off JobKeeper in November compared to the month of October, and a further 7,200 businesses came off JobKeeper in November compared to the month of October. So it’s good news, the economic recovery is underway. James and I know, that the job is not done, there’s a lot of uncertainty that’s still out there, there are sectors, there are regions across the country that are doing it tough. But the Morrison Government, as it was at the start if this crisis supporting Australians, and as it has been doing through this crisis, supporting Australians, will be here to the end of this crisis supporting Australians in their time of need. Are there any questions?

QUESTION:

I think how hard the Victorian Treasurer has asked for vulnerable industries to have more of a lifeline  after JobKeeper finishes, can you let us know, do you have any ideas what that could possibly look like and what they can expect?

JOSH FRYDENBERG:

Well the first thing to say in these most recent numbers, is that Victorians are the highest state represented among the JobKeeper recipients so around 40 per cent of those JobKeeper recipients are from the state of Victoria. In its peak it was even higher than that. Through the cash flow boost, through the JobSeeker coronavirus supplement, through the JobKeeper program, the Morrison Government has been there for the Victorian people in an unprecedented way. We’ll always look at what areas of need there are for targeted support. For example in the tourism sector, we have announced a program to support travel agents, we continue to support the aviation industry and I announced in last year’s Budget, $350 million for tourism related infrastructure and other support programs. So we’ll continue to roll out other supports as needed, and I’d say to Tim Pallas, who I have a good working relationship with, and to the Victorian Government, is that the Federal Government’s economic support doesn’t end when JobKeeper ends at the end of March, it continues. The tax cuts have already put $7 billion into people’s pockets and more than $1 billion a month on average will be going out to people’s pockets over the next nine months. We’ve got the JobMaker hiring credit, which is to get unemployed people into work. We’ve got the infrastructure projects that we have brought forward, we’ve got the skilling package, more than 300,000 training places, as well as the wage subsidies to support the hiring of apprentices. So there is lots and lots of different programs that the Federal Government is rolling out, even after JobKeeper ends.

QUESTION:

Treasurer, what is the timeline though for the jobless that they’ll be given some certainty on the JobSeeker permanent rate? Is the unemployment benefit expected to fall lower than the current rate of about $715 a fortnight?

JOSH FRYDENBERG:

Well as you know, we put in place the JobSeeker coronavirus supplement. That was an effective doubling of the safety net. Again, it came in when JobKeeper came in. but like JobKeeper, we have tapered down that supplement. Now that extra supplement is expected to end in March. What we have said in relation to the JobSeeker payment going forward is we’ll make decisions, announcements, determinations around that prior to that date. But we have significantly boosted that safety net, and we’ve seen household disposable income increase. So we know, for the bottom 10 per cent of the income decile, we’ve seen their disposable incomes increase by 20 per cent through this crisis. That’s really important, that whether it’s been the childcare support, whether it’s been the JobSeeker coronavirus supplement, our supports have been designed to help people, particularly those who are most vulnerable, particularly those who are in need. With respect to the unemployment rate and the labour market more generally, it has delivered on the upside, in the sense that the labour market has performed better than was expected. So at one point, Treasury were saying to me that the unemployment rate could reach as high as 15 per cent if it wasn’t for our JobKeeper and other economic support measures. We now know that as of December, the unemployment rate has come down to 6.6 per cent, we saw 50,000 jobs created in the month of December, more than 70 per cent of those being full time. Now we still have a challenge for younger people, because those aged 15-34 have an employment level which is still below the pre pandemic rate, but that’s why we’ve got in place the JobMaker hiring credit, which is focusing on that cohort, that aged cohort to help get them into work. So we have a variety of economic support payments that continue long after JobKeeper ends.

QUESTION:

Treasurer, just on the vaccine rollout. How central is it to our recovery going forward that the timetable doesn’t slip here? Are you worried about supply issues with the EU news and things like that? How important is that?

JOSH FRYDENBERG:

Well I’ve spoken to Greg Hunt this morning, the Health Minister. He has said that we remain on track for the delivery of the Pfizer vaccine in February and for the rollout of the Pfizer vaccine [inaudible] TGA [inaudible]. With respect for the AstraZeneca vaccine, we remain on track to receive that in March. As you know we’ve got about 54 million doses of the AstraZeneca vaccine, more than 90 per cent of those are being made here in Australia by CSL, which is a great asset for Australia to have a domestic production facility. So we recognise that some of these companies have had issues in terms of their production, but based on the most recent advice and Greg Hunt’s discussions with the heads of both AstraZeneca and Pfizer, we remain on track for the delivery of the vaccine from Pfizer in February.

QUESTION:

If there are issues, what’s the plan, do you have a contingency plan there?

JOSH FRYDENBERG:

Well the first thing to say is that Australia’s situation is quite different to the United Kingdom and the United States where they have been rolling out the vaccine already in that those countries have seen hundreds of thousands of new cases and tragically thousands of deaths. We have so far been very effective as a nation in controlling the virus, obviously we want that to continue but the virus is stubborn, the virus is deadly, we all have to be extremely vigilant. With respect to the impact on the Budget bottom line and overall confidence, of course, the vaccine is an important part of that strategy. But in the Budget last year, our forecast was for the vaccine to be rolled out by the end of 2021. On current projections, it will occur earlier than that. So there is some benefits as well to the economy but of course the vaccine is [inaudible].

QUESTION:

It’s going into winter, if there’s those supply issues there that might heighten concerns?

JOSH FRYDENBERG:

Well again, Australia is in a good position with a strong domestic capacity to produce for the AstraZeneca vaccine. It’s not available to a lot of other countries, but by having a commercial leader, a national leader in CSL, we have a very, very good company, of the highest reputation, that it has the ability to manufacture those vaccines in Australia and that puts us in a [inaudible] position.

QUESTION:

On tourism, I know that’s obviously one of the sectors that’s been impacted the hardest by all of this. You’re saying that the state border closures are to blame and then Labor is saying it’s the international borders, is it a bit of both do you think, is it a mixture of everything here?

JOSH FRYDENBERG:

Well there’s no doubt international borders, state borders have all had an impact on the tourism industry, that’s just a matter of fact, we know that. But we also know that the Morrison Government has been there for the tourism industry, those economy wide payments and of course JobKeeper and the cashflow boost announced in the Budget and the loss carry back measure which will be very important as well. But we’ve also had very discreet, targeted, economic support payments to the tourism industry, so for the travel agents, for the aviation players in terms of some of the infrastructure programs. Now Treasury are continuing to analyse the data. Minister Dan Tehan is talking to the industry players and we will look what other further targeted assistance is required. When it comes to tourism, like other sectors, they are complex supply chains. You've got the accommodation provided, you’ve got the hospitality business which might be the catering company, you’ve got also the aviation support, you’ve also got the tourism operator themselves and their staff. So it is a complex supply chain. When it comes to domestic tourism, more than 70 per cent of the tourism dollar spent in Australia is generated by domestic tourism. So having certainty and consistency around state border closures is very important. Alan Joyce told me just yesterday, that over the January period, Qantas and Jetstar cancelled 1,500 flights to Queensland alone. 1,500 flights. Qantas and Jetstar cancelled 200,000 passenger bookings. Now that’s potentially more than $200 million that could be spent in the Queensland tourism industry, they did so after those borders were closed at the end of December. They were destinations into Maroochydore, into Hamilton Island, into Cairns, into the Gold Coast. They were passengers who were wanting to spend money in Queensland. So I thought it was a but cheeky, to put it politely, of Anastacia Palaszczuk to call on us to extend Jobkeeper for the tourism industry when we, the Federal Government, the Morrison Government, has actually delivered $27.9 billion to the people of Queensland. The Palaszczuk Government has committed $8.8 billion. So we have delivered more than three times what they have committed to.

QUESTION:

Would you say it is cheeky as well that Labor is saying its international border closures that is causing our issues when you’re having to deal with across the country all the states closing their borders?

JOSH FRYDENBERG:

While the nation is fighting the pandemic, the Labor Party is fighting themselves. They have less to say about the economy and more to say about themselves. I thought it was interesting that Bill Shorten said just the other day that Anthony Albanese has a tiny policy agenda. So, whether it’s in relation to the pandemic or other issues, they haven’t had much to say and certainly, not much to say that would have actually delivered a better outcome for Australia.

QUESTION:

There is a new ad campaign coming out about the planned industrial relation changes. They’re saying workers will be worse off, will they be worse off? Can you guarantee any worker won’t be worse off here?

JOSH FRYDENBERG:

Our changes, I’m sure James may want to add to this, our changes will ensure that our economy is stronger and there will be more jobs, that we will have more flexible workplaces and that we can continue to recover from the pandemic. In order to boost wages, you do need to boost productivity and also to boost wages, you also need to get greater competition in the labour market. So by having more people in jobs, you get more competition in the labour market. Infrastructure spending, skills packages, more flexible workplaces, they are all designed to boost people’s wages and to boost the creation of jobs. James?

JAMES PATERSON:

Just briefly, Treasurer. All I can say on the industrial relations package, the omnibus bill, it’s a product of hundreds of hours of consultation with both the union movement and the business community. It’s a very sensible, measured group of changes designed to get more Australians back into work. When we’ve got so many Australians looking for work, we need all our systems working together to make sure there are no barriers to businesses like James’ hiring more workers, getting more people back into jobs.  

QUESTION:

But there will be workers who are worse off as a result of this?

JAMES PATERSON:

I don’t accept that at all, I think there is no worker worse off than a worker who doesn’t have a job at all. If you’re sitting at home and you don’t have a job at all, then getting a job is the most important thing to improve your circumstances.  

JOSH FRYDENBERG:

Our focus has unequivocally been on jobs. Jobs, jobs and more jobs. I saw Anthony Albanese say the other day that his reshuffle was all about jobs. It wasn’t about Australian jobs, Anthony Albanese’s reshuffle was not about Australian’s jobs, it was all about saving his own job. Our focus, whether it’s the JobKeeper payment, the cash flow boost, infrastructure projects, the JobMaker hiring credit, the tax cuts that have delivered more money into the pockets of Australian families, the business investment incentives that can help provide a double whammy to the economy- boost our productivity, put people in work as well, they’re all designed to help create jobs. I point you to the record. I point you to the record that Treasury believe that the unemployment rate could have reached 15 per cent without our economic support. Today it’s 6.6 per cent. There will be fluctuations from month to month, but certainly, it has been trending in the right direction. Historical analogies are important. In the 1980s after the recession, it took a full six years to get the unemployment rate back to where it was before the crisis. In the 1990s recession, it took a full decade. Indeed, for younger people it took a remarkable fifteen years to get the employment levels back to where they were. On the current projections from this COVID-19 recession, we’re looking at around four years to get that unemployment rate back to where it was. Of course, we want to do better than that but it is a sign that the economy is recovering when more than two million Australians come off JobKeeper and that is a sign of the recovery being underway. Being here today with James and his business, a business that had a dozen people on JobKeeper who are no longer on JobKeeper, is consistent with what I and James Paterson have been saying right around the country. When I visited Cotton On in Avalon, they had 5,500 people on JobKeeper - no longer. I visited a restaurant in Torquay, they had around twenty staff who were on JobKeeper and other payments and they’re no longer on it. When I visited a baker not far from here recently, again, they had people on JobKeeper no longer. These JobKeeper graduates, like James, are a sign that the Australian economy is getting stronger by the day.      

QUESTION:

There will be workers though who would lose part of their income as a result of this.

JOSH FRYDENBERG:

Our measures are designed to ensure that workers are better off. Our measures are designed, as James Paterson said, to help people get into jobs. Our measures have been doing just that.