WARREN ENTSCH:
Thank you very, very much indeed for being here today. First of all I’d like to thank Advance Cairns, Chamber of Commerce, and *inaudible* for hosting this event today, and particular, I’d like to say thank you to me, I won’t say old mate, I’ve got a year or two on him, my good friend Josh, Josh Frydenberg as Treasurer for Australia for being here today to spend some time with our business community and as you did yesterday as well. It gives you an opportunity to see what’s happening first hand, on the ground, and as I’ve said to you before, you know, you’ve been relatively new in the job, 2018, but I suspect you’re going to go down as one of our best Treasurers. I mean, you’re the only one who has had to deal with the situation where you were right on top of the job and then suddenly we get hit with an international pandemic and unprecedented in any of our lives and the way you’ve managed to get through this has been absolutely phenomenal. We are up here, of course, and as I’ve explained to you, we were the first into this pandemic, from an economic and social point of view, we are by far going to be one of the last ones out because of our reliance on international tourism in particular. And so, as a community, we don’t come in here looking for handouts, we never have, we’ve always stood on our own feet and we’ve punched well above our weight, but what we do need in so many ways is a leg up if you like, a little bit of a hand up into the saddle so that we can get back to do what we do and very, very well, so thank you very much indeed Josh for your time and I’ll hand it back to you.
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Well thank you very much Warren, no one can match Warren Entsch’s passion for the people of Leichhardt and for the Cairns community. You’ve been a stalwart Warren, for your local area and you speak with such a loud and powerful voice and its wonderful news that you’re going to seek re-election at the next election as a representative of the people of Leichhardt. To Tourism North Queensland, to Advance Cairns, to the Chamber of Commerce, thank you for inviting me today to meet with hundreds of local business leaders. It was a fantastic opportunity to hear first hand from them, as to the challenges in dealing with COVID here in Cairns and in the broader region.
Today is International Women’s Day, it’s a day to champion and to celebrate women leaders across our community, but also to promote equality and opportunity for women across Australia. Today we are launching the next phase of a program to reduce violence against women, a vitally important program that the Morrison Government is investing significantly in. From an economic perspective, my focus is on boosting female workforce participation, and seeing the jobs come back across the economy. We did see before the pandemic 1.5 million jobs being created on the Coalition’s watch. 59 per cent of those jobs went to women, and we saw the female workforce participation rate reach a record high and we saw the gender pay gap being reduced to a record low. There is still a long way to go and obviously, during the pandemic, female employment has been hit hard, but it’s pleasing that 53 per cent of the jobs that have been created since the worst of this crisis hit, have gone to females. Now there’s a lot of work to be done, and we put in last years' Budget an Economic Security Statement for women and we’re implementing those initiatives. But today is a day to celebrate International Women’s Day, but also to deal with some of those real challenges that we face and see right across the community, including violence against women.
It’s a great pleasure to be here in Cairns, because as we know, across the Australian economy, we’re seeing very strong economic recovery. Last week, we saw the December quarter National Accounts figures, which showed for the first time since 1959, Australia have two consecutive quarters of economic growth above three per cent. We’ve seen the unemployment rate come down to 6.4 per cent and we’ve seen 94 per cent of Australians who either lost their jobs or saw their working hours reduced to zero at the start of the pandemic now back at work. Here in Queensland, we saw an unemployment rate last July at 8.8 per cent, the highest in the country, and thankfully that has now reduced to seven per cent and we’re seeing more jobs created across Queensland. But while it’s been a V shaped recovery for the rest of Australia, here in Cairns the story has been quite different. Cairns relies heavily on not just domestic tourism, but international tourism. As it’s been pointed out to me, one in two beds, accommodation beds, here in Cairns relies on international tourists, and prior to the pandemic there were eight foreign destinations that were flying directly here into Cairns and that’s been brought down to zero as a result of the pandemic. And you can see, walking the streets, the impact that it’s having on both retail and of course tourism. I’ve had the opportunity here, to meet with a number of businesses, businesses in the agriculture sector dealing with the great opportunities in the Tablelands. In the education sector, to meet with the Vice-Chancellor of James Cook University in central Queensland University. I’ve had the opportunity to deal with those who are repairing airplanes as well as naval vessels and they’re employing 500 people across three naval docklands here in the Cairns region and of course to speak to tourism operators.
Now the Morrison Government has provided very significant support to the people of Cairns. We saw more than $800 million being delivered through JobKeeper alone here in Cairns, and we’ve seen a number of people on JobKeeper, in Cairns, come down from just over 36,000 last September to just over 16,000 by December, and that number will steadily come down. But we also recognise that there is more to do and more support is needed. So we’re considering details of a new package, and the Prime Minister was on local radio here recently, talking to that. We recognise that there are going to be sectors and regions across the community that are going to need additional support. But JobKeeper as a program has to come to an end. This has been a $90 billion program, it’s supported 3.6 million Australians at its peak and a million Australian businesses. But it was always designed to be a temporary, keeping that formal connection between employers and employees. So we’ll be moving to the next phase of support, we’ve already announced in the Budget, significant additional incentives for businesses, tax cuts, the JobMaker hiring credit, bringing infrastructure projects forward.
But I just want to finish in saying that Cairns has a very bright future. The people of Cairns can be very confident that they will get to the other side of this pandemic and that they will continue to benefit from all the wonderful opportunities that present themselves here, whether it’s agriculture, education, manufacturing, retail, and of course tourism. So thank you Warren for having me here, it’s been a great opportunity to speak to the business leaders. The Morrison Government is continuing to work on other support measures, we welcome additional support that may be provided by the State Government here in Queensland, this has been the biggest economic shock since the Great Depression, but based on what I’ve heard and what I’ve seen across the country, Australia is better placed than any other nation to get to the other side of COVID-19. Thank you.
QUESTION:
Mr Frydenberg, can I ask have you done any economic modelling for the region on how many businesses might go under and how many businesses might continue on?
FRYDENBERG:
If you’re talking about post JobKeeper, the Treasury does do a series of economic models and forecasts based on its policies. What we do is we put that into our unemployment forecasts which we announced at Budget in October last year and then at the MYEFO statement in December. We’ll update again those forecasts at this year’s Budget. What I can tell you and this both in the RBA’s numbers as well as in Treasury’s numbers is even when JobKeeper ends at the end of March, the unemployment rate over the period will continue to trend down. Now it might be bumpy, it might have some fluctuations from month to month but you saw from the RBA who have put out figures since we put out our MYEFO figures is that they’re predicting the unemployment rate to get to 6 per cent by year’s end. It’s now 6.4 per cent. So it is going to be bumpy, it’s going to be very challenging for a number of businesses. Right now there are just under a million workers who are requiring JobKeeper over this March quarter. That compares as I said to just over 3.6 million at the peak of this program but that is a temporary emergency support that has to end and we move to the next transition phase.
QUESTION:
What more can you tell us about what form this post JobKeeper package will take?
FRYDENBERG:
Well again we’ll obviously talk about the details in coming days. The aviation sector is really important because obviously that has been hit hard and it impacts regions such as Cairns. If we can get more flights coming into Cairns and across Australia then that will be welcome. That’s why the voucher system announced by the Queensland government is welcome too, as an additional measure to generate more economic activity. What we want to do is to back businesses that back themselves, that’s really important. Businesses have got skin in the game as they go forward from here. So we’ve put in place the JobKeeper program, that ends in March. We’ve got other programmes which are continuing to rollout with support but we’re also looking at other measures. I also want to point out that when it comes to our support, we committed $251 billion. $150 billion has rolled out already so there’s still $100 billion of committed support still to roll out. Our support was the equivalent of 13 per cent of GDP, across the states their average was at 6 per cent of GDP. In New South Wales, they committed 7 per cent of GDP, in Victoria they committed 9 per cent of GDP, here in Queensland they committed only 2 per cent of GDP which is less than what we’ve seen across other states unfortunately. The Federal Government under Scott Morrison has done the bulk of the heavy lifting here and will continue to provide support.
QUESTION:
When exactly are we going to get the full details on this new program of what additional support businesses who are struggling after JobKeeper is withdrawn will be looking at?
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Again, we're still finalising those details but it's a matter of days. These are important issues that we've been working on for some time. We've done an extensive amount of work. But I also want to emphasise there are significant programs which are rolling out right now. So, for example, the JobMaker Hiring Credit is designed to support people who are unemployed here in Cairns, under the age of 35, get back into employment by providing incentives to businesses. What I've heard from some of the businesses that I've met is that some are doing well and others are finding it a bit more challenging. Some are actually doing okay and some even better than okay through this pandemic. So it's about targeting that support but also providing opportunities for those who are doing okay to even take on more more workers, which is going to be good news for people across the country.
QUESTION:
With respect Treasurer, though, a lot of operators here in the Far North have been saying for months now that they're just not going to see the snapback like a lot of other parts of the country will see. Don't you think it's cutting it a bit fine to leave it to within weeks of the end of JobKeeper to announce what's to come?
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Well the main thing is we signalled that JobKeeper was ending and that was really important because then businesses could make those adjustments to their operations because businesses will restructure. I’ve been speaking to some businesses that have already made that restructure. We’ve never been able to make every business whole and we have to be absolutely realistic about that. What we have sought to do is give every business the best possible opportunity to get to the other side and of course to keep their staff employed and that’s what the motivation behind the JobKeeper program was. So we’ve rolled out in last year’s Budget substantial programmes and Warren knows for example, what we’ve done here for some of the zoos and some of the other tourist attractions, what we announced earlier this year for travel agents who have been hit very hard. So there are the Budget measures, there are the MYEFO measures, there are the measures that we’ve introduced and announced even since then and there will be more. I think what the message is, is that it’s an ongoing challenge. None of these policies are set and forget. It’s about continually re-evaluating the situation that we’re in and making adjustments accordingly. The Federal Government has done the bulk of the heavy lifting, we’ll continue to provide support.
QUESTION:
Treasurer, how can Australians have confidence in the Government when two senior Cabinet Ministers are missing in action?
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Well obviously we wish Christian Porter and Linda Reynolds only good health and it’s been a challenging time in the Parliament and quite a distressing time in the Parliament. Christian Porter has made his statement and we have said very clearly that we need to respect the rule of law and the police process and the NSW Police have spoken. So we look forward to him returning to work. With respect to Linda Reynolds, she’s also put out her statement and we look forward to her returning to work. As you know, she’s got a particular heart condition and that’s challenging whether it’s for you or for me, or anybody who may also have a medical ailment. We only wish her and Christian Porter well. In the meantime, Marise Payne is not only taking on the responsibility of the Foreign Affairs portfolio, but also Defence portfolio responsibility and Michaelia Cash is taking on responsibilities for Christian Porter’s portfolio.
QUESTION:
How can Mr Porter be allowed to return as Attorney General when right or wrong, a cloud hangs over his head?
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Well again, he made a comprehensive statement. The rule of law must apply here and the presumption of innocence as well and that’s been our consistent position.
WARREN ENTSCH:
Can I also just quickly respond and this in relation to JobKeeper and the delays. Understand one of the big problems we have here, and this is a real issue in our city, is that we’ve got to get the policy setting absolutely right. This is why you have to get current data because we are also finding a distortion in the market here where there are a lot of businesses that haven’t got a problem with customers but they can’t get staff. This is where the disincentive is created with some elements in relation to JobKeeper, so you’ve got to make sure that it’s targeted to those that need it and you’ve got to make sure that it doesn’t become a disincentive for those really, where there are other job opportunities there. So it’s a balance between the two and this is why you can’t just pronounce this several months out, or just after you announce one package. You’ve got to get all the data in and I think that’s important to acknowledge.
QUESTION:
Could you just clarify sorry if a wage subsidy similar to JobKeeper will be part of this new package or whether the Commonwealth is considering a loan scheme?
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
There should be no expectation of another economy wide wage subsidy. Thank you very much.