JOSH FRYDENBERG:
…momentum. The ATO data for the month of October shows that there are two million fewer Australian workers and 450,000 fewer Australian businesses on JobKeeper in October compared to the September quarter. These economic figures build on other important and positive data that we’ve seen in recent weeks, 178,000 jobs that were created last month. The effective unemployment rate coming down from 9.3 down to 7.4 per cent and in Victoria coming down from 14 to 10.5 per cent. Australia’s AAA credit rating being reaffirmed. Consumer confidence and business confidence both being up, consumer confidence up 11 out of the last 12 weeks and the Governor of the Reserve Bank saying the Australian Government’s economic policy was on, and is on the right track. We know that the road ahead will be very challenging, we’ll have National Accounts numbers on Wednesday, but the other measures that the Government announced in the context of the Budget, the JobMaker Hiring Credit which has passed the Parliament, the tax cuts which are now starting to make their way into people’s pockets, the immediate expensing, the expanded instant asset write off, the loss carry back measure. All of these measures are designed to help do one thing, create jobs across the economy. We know it’s difficult, we know that the economic environment globally remains uncertain, we know the health challenges remain as we’ve seen in recent weeks as well. But our focus as a Government is on creating more jobs and this data in relation to JobKeeper is encouraging.
QUESTION:
Treasurer, when do you expect unemployment to rise again?
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Again, we’ll update the unemployment numbers at MYEFO in December. What we saw from Treasury early on in the pandemic was an expectation that unemployment would hit around 10 per cent by the year end. Then that number was revised to around eight per cent, we’ll see what happens between now and MYEFO and obviously we’ll make that number known then. We do know from Treasury that the expectation is unemployment will decline to around 7.25 next year from that expectation that it would reach eight per cent.
QUESTION:
Do you expect it to increase when JobKeeper ends in March?
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Well what you’ve seen from Treasury’s forecasts in the Budget was that the unemployment rate would come down as JobKeeper was tapered off and the other measures would take effect. The unemployment rate is expectedly to steadily come down over the next few years as more people come back to work but certainly this economic data is more positive than initially expected.
QUESTION:
Is it likely that some businesses won’t survive when JobKeeper ends?
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Some businesses won’t survive through the [inaudible] and not every job can be saved. But what we have sought to do as a Government is to give every business its best possible chance of getting to the other side of this crisis. Unprecedented level of support, already over $120 billion has gone out the door from the Federal Government across the country. JobKeeper, JobSeeker, the cash flow boost, the support for apprentices. As I travel around the country, I’m seeing first hand on the front line the success stories of businesses graduating out of JobKeeper. The café owner in Adelaide, the crane driver in western Sydney. I’ve met with these businesses and their workers and they are positive about the future. So there is cause for optimism, there is cause for hope, there is cause for confidence across the Australian economy.
QUESTION:
Treasurer, just on China. The Government hasn’t been able to get on the phone to your counterparts. If you could get on the phone to your Chinese counterparts, what would you be saying to them?
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Again, this is a challenging time in the bilateral relationship on the trade front. There is no secret in that. We would like to resolve these issues bilaterally, we would like to see that trade resume to where it was because it is certainly mutually beneficial for both countries. Our iron ore has underpinned China’s economic growth, our agricultural produce is amongst some of the best in the world. Our tourism and our education services are first class, as well. So it is a mutually beneficial relationship. The bilateral relationship is important. Economic partnership is important. But if we can’t resolve these issues bilaterally, we reserve the right to use multilateral forms as well, as we have done in the past.
QUESTION:
Do you think China will actually respect what the WTO says? I mean, they just seem to be making the rules as they go along.
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Again, we’ll cross that bridge when we come to it. That is an extended process and, as the Trade Minister has made clear, that is under active consideration.
QUESTION:
You said we’ll cross that bridge when we come to it, does that mean it’s definitely – it’s not a case of if, it’s definitely going to go to the WTO?
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Again, the Trade Minister said very clearly yesterday this is under active consideration. We’ve used the WTO before as a multilateral forum to help resolve disputes. Again, we prefer to resolve them bilaterally, but this is a challenging time.
QUESTION:
The Prime Minister’s popularity has increased during COVID, do you expect it to remain high when you start to take the support measures away?
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Again, I’m not a commentator, I will leave that to you on the day to day polling. What I do know is that the Prime Minister’s focus has been on supporting the Australian people through this once-in-a-century pandemic. Very early on in this crisis, the Prime Minister and his Government set out the principles that would guide our economic response. Our measures had to be targeted, temporary, use the existing systems, be proportionate and be scalable. That’s what they’ve been and they’ve been unprecedented in their scope. Now we’re seeing the product of those economic support payments that we’ve made. People are now getting back to work as the virus has been suppressed. Australia’s performance on the health front and on the economic front is as good as any other country across the world. We have so much to be proud of as a nation about the way people have worked together in these very challenging times, supported one another. These are very difficult times. We’re not out of the woods yet, there is still a long way to go but I do see some causes for optimism and hope.
QUESTION:
Treasurer, the first flight of international students as part of the pilot program has arrived in Darwin this morning. How important is that? What do you say to the 36,000 Australians who are trying to get home for Christmas who have effectively lost those quarantine spaces in Howard Springs?
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Our focus is on getting Australians home and you heard from the Foreign Minister about 24/7 operation that we have through DFAT, the funding that we have helped provide, the new flights that we have been able to get and tens of thousands have already come home over the course of this pandemic and we will continue to assist others get home, as well. Thank you.