ALLISON LANGDON:
Treasurer, good to see you this morning.
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Good morning, Ali. Nice to see you too.
ALLISON LANGDON:
So 700,000 fewer people on JobKeeper than expected. Does this mean we’re in good shape?
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Well, certainly the economic recovery is gaining momentum and these JobKeeper numbers are very encouraging. What the October data from the ATO indicates is that two million fewer Australian workers and about 450,000 fewer Australian businesses are on JobKeeper in the month of October compared to the September quarter. Now, this builds on earlier positive data that we've seen. We saw 178,000 jobs being created last month, we've seen consumer confidence up across the country in 11 out of the last 12 weeks and we've seen, what is called the effective unemployment ate which is really our focus, come down from 9.3 per cent down to 7.4 per cent. So, we know it's going to still be a pretty tough time for many Australians as we recover from the big hit of COVID. But certainly these numbers are encouraging.
ALLISON LANGDON:
Well, it's going to be helped more by Queensland opening its border tonight too, I imagine, to Sydney and Victoria. But what happens to the unemployment rate when JobKeeper ends in March? Are you concerned it's propping up zombie businesses?
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Well again, there will be some businesses that won't make it and there will be some jobs that can't be saved. We've always said that. But it is Treasury's analysis that the unemployment rate will come down next year and then come down in the period ahead, even after JobKeeper comes off at the end of March. You see…
ALLISON LANGDON:
So are you expecting a spike in March? Apologies.
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Well, obviously see a transition but the unemployment rate is expected to come down next year through that period of March and beyond because in the Budget, Ali, we saw a whole series of measures which is now starting to take effect. The tax cuts are seeing money go into people's pockets, the immediate expensing or expanded instant asset right off is encouraging more investment, the JobMaker hiring credit to get younger people from the unemployment queues into work has passed through the Parliament. All these measures are contributing to building confidence both in the business community as well as among families and households.
ALLISON LANGDON:
But as you know, Josh, it is very easy to give people money it's much harder to take it away. Are you concerned how that's going to play out next year?
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Well, again, our support for the economy continues in record amounts. But what we have sought to do is use Government not as a solution to every problem, but really as a catalyst. And that's why we want to encourage business to invest because every time business buys some new machinery or updates a production line or does an office fit out, then that employs people along the way. And what we've sought to do is to back small business every step of this way because they've been really hit hard during this crisis.
ALLISON LANGDON:
Okay. You're taking China to the World Trade Organisation. Do you honestly think that's going to make any difference?
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Well, obviously this is a challenging time Ali, with Australia's largest trading partner in China. But it is a mutually beneficial relationship. China benefits greatly from Australia's iron ore which underpins its economic growth from our produce, which is best in the world. So, we'll obviously work through these issues. We would prefer to deal with them bilaterally with China but we always have that multilateral option. But this is a challenging time. There's no secrets in that.
ALLISON LANGDON:
Final sitting weeks of Parliament this year, I mean, what a year it’s been. And of course, the Prime Minister he's got a ministry reshuffle coming up. Does this mean that you're all going to be on your best behaviour?
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Well as his deputy and being selected by the Party Room, my position is slightly different. But certainly these are decisions for the Prime Minister to take. And obviously Mathias Cormann has gone off to look and to campaign for the OECD role which will be wonderful for Australia, if he is successful in getting it and he's certainly putting his best foot forward. That has created a change in the finance portfolio. Simon Birmingham has stepped into those shoes and is doing remarkably well. And then, of course, there may be some other changes. But again, that's a matter for the Prime Minister and I'll leave that to him.
ALLISON LANGDON:
Come on who's sucking up to the PM right now?
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Well, I have to say we're a united team, Ali. And that's very different from those opposite in the chamber, I can tell you.
ALLISON LANGDON:
Is that a necessary dig?
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Well, look, you can't get away from the fact, sorry about that.
ALLISON LANGDON:
All right, Josh, thanks for joining us this morning, we appreciate it.
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Great to be with you Ali.