BRIAN CARLTON:
Federal Treasurer, Josh Frydenberg, joins me. Good morning, Sir, how are you?
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Good morning, Brian. Nice to be with your Tasmanian listeners.
BRIAN CARLTON:
It’s good to have you, thank you. I know time’s limited. We need to have a look at the cost of the lockdowns first up. We’ll get to jobs in a sec. Costs of the lockdowns on the mainland, what’s that running at weekly at the moment?
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Well, look, the Treasury estimate is that the main states, the large states in New South Wales and Victoria, being in lockdown is costing the economy around $2 billion a week. That’s an immense cost.
BRIAN CARLTON:
Good lord.
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
And then, of course, we’ve got our fiscal support, which is very substantial, providing not just businesses and families in those states with support but we recently announced a joint package to help Tasmanian businesses with the Tasmanian government with grants that range, you know, from $2,000 to $10,000. So that is, you know, significant economic support that is helping to cushion the blow not just in those hotspot areas but beyond.
BRIAN CARLTON:
Yeah, and there is a definite knock-on effect. Obviously lockdowns in Victoria and New South Wales have a profound effect on the Tasmanian economy. Are you sort of convinced just from where you sit that the tourism and hospitality industry in Tassie will survive if we end up going into lockdown over the Christmas period? I’m deeply concerned about the timing of all of this.
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Well, Brian, no-one has a crystal ball has to what will happen over that Christmas period with respect to individual states. But what I can tell you is that the vaccination rollout is our ticket out of this crisis. And Tasmanians have been rolling up their sleeves and getting the jab, and that is to be really welcomed, because if we get to that 70 and 80 per cent vaccination rate as quickly as possible then we can start to ease restrictions. What we know from the Doherty Institute is that when you get to 70 per cent you actually start to see the transmissibility of the virus reduce, you see the number of people getting seriously ill reduce, but you also, in the words of the Doherty Institute, see stringent lockdowns becoming unlikely. And we have to give people hope. We have to ensure that people know there is a light at the end of the tunnel, that when they make the sacrifices today in lockdown, there can be a better future when they come out of it. And that’s why it’s very important that states don’t have an expectation that the federal government will continue its emergency economic assistance in the scale that we have been doing indefinitely beyond those 70 and 80 per cent targets.
BRIAN CARLTON:
Treasurer, the local tourism industry is popping a proposal to the state government that they've not signed off on yet, but no jab, no entry into Tasmania. Would you support that?
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
I did see the commentary on that. I mean, obviously they will be decisions that your state government will make. And I did see that the state minister was slightly hesitant about committing to that.
BRIAN CARLTON:
Yes.
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
So we’ll wait and see what they do. But I have no doubt that as more and more people get the vaccination then businesses who have, you know, the say over who entries their premises will make decisions that they think are in their best interests and that of their customer and their staff. And also state governments will take decisions. Now, they will be decisions that hopefully are well thought through and the consequences are well thought through, but certainly my message is an unequivocal one – everyone who is eligible should get the jab if they don’t have any health factors that would deny them from doing so.
BRIAN CARLTON:
I can see that a vaccine passport or something similar – and I’m pleased that you’ve included Tasmania in the research to develop some kind of vaccine passport – it makes sense to do that overseas, I think. We’re all pretty comfortable with the idea that we’ve needed to be vaccinated before we fly anywhere. But internally is a different proposition, isn’t it?
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Look, there are lots of considerations to take into account. There are for and there are against arguments. There are certainly people who would advocate for it while others would be strenuously against it, you know, we’re not at that point yet. What we are, though, focusing on is getting more people vaccinated each and every day. And just yesterday, Brian, we saw 309,000 people – that’s 215 a minute doses being delivered. And when you break down the numbers, more than 40 per cent of those doses were AstraZeneca and nearly half of those numbers—that number was actually for people under the age of 60. So I think some of that hesitancy that we’ve seen with respect to AstraZeneca or, indeed of getting the vaccine is starting to ebb away.
But people need to know, we must live with COVID. We must learn to live with COVID. It’s a fallacy to think that you can eliminate it. We know in the United Kingdom they’ve got a double vaccination rate over 75 per cent yet they still are getting 30,000 cases a day and in some days more than 100 deaths. So we will still have deaths, we’ll still have cases, we’ll still have hospitalisations, but the vaccination is the way for people to protect themselves and their families.
BRIAN CARLTON:
Well, thank heavens somebody has come out and told us the reality of this. Because I’ve got to say, many of the messages that have come out, “Everything will go back to normal as soon as everyone’s vaccinated,” and that’s just nonsense. It’s always been nonsense. And thank you for just being honest about it – that there will be cases, there will be deaths. Do you acknowledge the criticism of the federal government, Treasurer, in delaying the vaccine rollout, whether it was by design or by incident, by accident doesn’t matter, but would we have been better off if we’d had the sort of vaccine rollout we’re seeing now six months ago? How much would we have saved?
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Well, we adopted a portfolio approach. As you know, we supported the development of a vaccine through the University of Queensland which didn’t come to fruition. It came close, but then they had some issues with the development of that vaccine.
BRIAN CARLTON:
Correct.
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
We got – we supported CSL, a great Australian company, to develop the sovereign manufacturing capability with AstraZeneca. I think that was a very good move.
BRIAN CARLTON:
But then the ATAGI people came out and basically said, “Please don’t take it under the age of 60.” And that kind of just put everyone off.
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
And that was very cautious advice, and I’d be the first to say that damaged the brand of AstraZeneca. And that held people back from getting the jab who now feel more comfortable in doing so. But particularly as AstraZeneca has been the vaccine of choice for many countries around the world. With respect to Pfizer, obviously the priority was given to other countries that saw COVID run rampant with higher death tolls. Here in Australia we got Pfizer and we’re now getting more and more supplies and, as you know, we entered into agreements for significant boost to jabs, but we were able to secure an extra million jabs from Poland. 500,000 of those have made their way to New South Wales for the cohort of 20 to 39s, and the other half a million is making its way around the rest of the country on a per capita basis. So the Prime Minister is working around the clock to get more vaccines, and the good news, though, is that we’re really seeing an uptick in the number of Australians getting the jab.
BRIAN CARLTON:
Speaking of jab, let’s go the other J word – jobs. Just very quickly, the unemployment numbers came out yesterday. Now, the Tasmanian unemployment rate is sort of steady at four and a half per cent, which is – well, bottom end, really, isn’t it, of all the states. It’s an extraordinary achievement. The other thing – and this goes back to a prediction that you made some time ago on an issue that we talked about the last time we spoke, which is if you have a relatively low unemployment rate you end up seeing wages growth. And that appears to have been what’s happened. We’ve had a 2.2 per cent wages growth here in Tassie over the past year. So there is a correlation there.
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Well, the key to driving higher wages is to get more competition for labour. It’s just a supply and a demand equation. And the good news is that our labour market is extremely resilient. Let’s not forget, Brian, unemployment was 7.4 per cent last July. It’s now at 4.6 per cent nationally, which is the lowest level in 12 years. Now, normally that would be a cause for celebration, but not at a time when millions of our fellow Australians are in lockdown. But if you look at Tasmania, you had 800 jobs created over the month. As you say, your unemployment is just blow the national average at four and a half per cent. But, really, these numbers are a tale of two cities – Melbourne and Sydney. Because in Melbourne you saw the hours worked increase by nearly 10 per cent as they were emerging out of lockdown and the economy was rebounding strongly. In Sydney the hours worked fell by 7 per cent as the survey period took into account weeks 2 and 3 of their lockdown. So it really does show that when you’re in lockdown people go on to zero hours of work, but when you come out of lockdown they quickly get back into their roles and the economy strengthens.
BRIAN CARLTON:
Indeed. Treasurer, one final one, if I may: you probably know a bloke who lives in Melbourne, your home town, he’s name’s Gillon. He runs a football code. I’m just wondering, if you happen to bump into him at some point, could you have a chat with him on behalf of Tasmanians, particularly our Premier, Peter Gutwein? Can he give us some sort of date on or stand-alone Tassie team in the AFL? Could you just have a quiet word in his ear, if you could?
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Well, I also know Colin Carter, who did the report into another team down in Tasmania. I know how passionate Peter Gutwein is, but also, you know, my good colleagues and friends, like Bridget Archer and Gavin Pearce in the seats of Bass and Braddon, as well as the good senators in Tasmania who are always in my ear, whether it’s Jonno Duniam, Claire Chandler, Wendy Askew or Eric Abetz. They’re very focused, and Richard Colebeck. They love their football.
BRIAN CARLTON:
Yeah.
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
And they’re in our ear about, you know –
BRIAN CARLTON:
We need a hand, those, Treasurer. They’re obviously not cutting through. We need some high-powered support here coming from outside the state, and I was wondering if you’d volunteer on our behalf.
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Well, I do Gillon, but it’s not my decision. And one thing I can tell you is that Carlton’s not relocating to Tasmania. And I say that with confidence as Carlton’s No 1 ticketholder.
BRIAN CARLTON:
Over your dead body.
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
But good luck to Tasmania. You’ve got a great football tradition and a contradicting tradition.
BRIAN CARLTON:
Treasurer, the State Government has said we’re going to spend it on soccer. We’re going to spend it on basketball. We’re going to spend it on anything but AFL here in Tassie if we –
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
But Peter Gutwein, he does like his football, and he’s certainly popular in your state. So I’m sure he’s got your best interests at heart.
BRIAN CARLTON:
Good to talk, Treasurer. Appreciate your time, thank you.
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
All the best.