DAVID SPEERS:
Josh Frydenberg, welcome to the program.
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Nice to be with you, David.
DAVID SPEERS:
So the Business Council, the Australian Industry Group, they both backed Labor's policy, has business got it wrong?
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Well, firstly, we're all about reducing emissions. It's an absolutely critical economic and environmental objective. That's why the Morison Government has signed up to net zero by 2050. That's why we've reduced our emissions already by more than 20 per cent ahead of many other comparable countries. But what Labor has announced is simply a reheat of the target that they took to the 2019 election, which Anthony Albanese said was an actual mistake. Now Labor can't be trusted David on this important economic transition. The last time they had to go a climate policy, we got a doubling in electricity prices, we lost one in eight manufacturing jobs and Australians got the carbon tax that they were promised they would not get…
DAVID SPEERS:
This is a different policy though.
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
No, Labor says they're going to legislate it, Labor is going to mandate it. Now they won't do that themselves in the Senate, they'll do that in partnership with the Greens and the Greens have a 75 per cent emissions reduction target by 2030. So this is the first bid from the Labor Party. This is not the policy that if Australians voted for, Australians will get and that is why I'm very sceptical.
DAVID SPEERS:
You don’t…
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Australians can be sceptical.
DAVID SPEERS:
You could, you could vote for it if they're in Government.
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Well, at the end of the day, we've got our target, which is 26 to 28 per cent by 2030. But we're on track for a 35 per cent reduction.
DAVID SPEERS:
Sure, but to your point, if Labor were in government, you're in Opposition, you might even be the Leader. You'd vote against this.
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
We're on track. We're focusing on winning the next election…
DAVID SPEERS:
What’s the answer to that question?
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Well, we're not about to support Labor's policy. We've got our own policy, and that's what we're looking to implement. But reducing emissions is an absolute focus for our Government. We have deployed $20 billion. We've got a technology investment roadmap, we're ahead of other comparable countries, don't look at what Labor says, look at what Labor does and last time they were the Government they gave us a carbon tax.
DAVID SPEERS:
Let's look at the plan. They do have on the table…
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Yes.
DAVID SPEERS:
…rather than the hypotheticals about what might happen after the election. This modelling has been done by RepuTex, they also advised the Government on its 2030 target back in 2015, same mob, it finds the policy would create 604,000 new jobs, lower electricity bills by $275. You suggesting RepuTex has got that wrong?
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Well what I'm suggesting is that Labor Party is using the safeguards mechanism. Now, initially, when we put the safeguards mechanism in 2016, it was designed to safeguard the emissions reductions we were getting from the emissions reduction fund, and not see a growth in the emissions coming out of the large industrial players. It wasn't meant to be this stick to mandate, to push these industrial players to force them to reduce their emissions by a certain amount to take into account their growth…
DAVID SPEERS:
A lot of them are doing this already, RepuTex says we'll saving $275 a household each 600,000 new jobs that were created, are they wrong?
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
And we said disposable income will go up by $2,000 under our plan. You see our focus is on a target and a plan for…
DAVID SPEERS:
I understand your plan. I'm just asking about Labor’s….
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Yes.
DAVID SPEERS:
Are you saying that RepuTex has got it wrong?
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Well, I'm saying that Labor is using the safeguards mechanism in a way that will punish that will penalise that will force these large industrial companies, which are some of the biggest companies in Australia, regardless of their growth, regardless of what their plans are for expanding their presence…
DAVID SPEERS:
But members of Australian Industry Group and the Business Council and they're all backing this.
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Well, I haven't agreed with the Business Council on everything. I remember they were pushing back on the big stick legislation which helped get electricity prices down by 10 per cent since December 2018…
DAVID SPEERS:
Yes but on this…
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
They were pushing back on digital giants as well.
DAVID SPEERS:
Yes but just on this thought, are you saying the business groups have got it wrong? RepuTex has got it wrong? The state liberal governments like New South Wales, South Australia, Tasmania that have far more ambitious plans and this they're all wrong? All the countries around the world with more ambitious 2030 targets have got it wrong? But you and Barnaby Joyce, and he's the one who's pushed you to your 2030 target. You've got it right?
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Well, firstly, we've got a 2050 goal as well. But we think we've actually got it right, because again, look at our track record. Emissions are down by more than 20 per cent on 2005 levels. That's ahead of Canada, that's ahead of New Zealand, that’s ahead of the United States, that's ahead of a lot of other comparable countries. We've identified the new technologies, not taxes that we're focusing on hydrogen, carbon capture and storage, soil carbon, batteries, ultra-low cost solar, that's our focus.
DAVID SPEERS:
Okay, but you're happy to say to your constituents in Kooyong that all of these business groups and the international community and a state liberal governments, they're all wrong. But Barnaby Joyce and you are right?
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Well, I say to my constituents in Kooyong and the community across Australia's I think we've got the right plan that we're going to see emissions down by up to 35 per cent by 2030. We're committed to net zero by 2050. This is an important environmental but also economic objective. And as you know, David, I spoke out quite publicly about the need from an economic perspective accessing…
DAVID SPEERS:
You said the cost of inaction…
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Correct.
DAVID SPEERS:
…would outweigh the cost of action.
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Well I said there's not just a cost of action in some respects, but there's a cost of inaction when you can’t access cheaper capital from overseas.
DAVID SPEERS:
Let’s move on. The Therapeutic Goods Administration has now given the tick for the vaccine - the Pfizer vaccine at least - for five to 11 year old. It still needs ATAGI’s approval, it's expected to be available from January 10.
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Yep.
DAVID SPEERS:
What sort of take up would you like to see amongst kids that age?
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Well, David, there's 2.3 million children in this cohort, we saw a strong take up from the older age groups that were that were receiving it. When we were rolling out the vaccine at its peak, we were doing more than two million jabs a week. So we're very hopeful that we can cover this young cohort from very early next year. So I'm hoping for a very strong take up but ultimately, that will be up to parents and those kids.
DAVID SPEERS:
Is there any reason do you think for schools or other venues to require kids that age to be vaccinated?
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Well, we haven't supported a mandatory vaccination program other than with respect to aged care workers, disability workers because of that particularly vulnerable cohort. But my message this morning, would be to every parent that ATAGI, the TGA, they don't take these steps lightly. They do an enormous amount of work. The United States has rolled out the vaccine to this younger cohort, and I believe it will be an extra defence against the virus.
DAVID SPEERS:
We’re yet to see really how the Omicron variant will play out...
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Yes.
DAVID SPEERS:
…around the world. The IMF, though is already indicating global growth projections will be downgraded because of this new strain. What will it mean for Australia, economically?
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Well firstly, it's too early to make any conclusive decisions or estimates about the economy as a result of Omicron. But what we do know is it's transmissible, highly transmissible. There's some early signs that may be less severe than the Delta variant. And there is no evidence as yet that our vaccines are not a defence against it. I don't think we should be panicking. I think everyone should keep their heads and we should be calmly and safely reopening as we have been…
DAVID SPEERS:
Is that a message to the Premiers as well, because South Australia's Premier is weighing up what to do at the moment with their border?
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Well, David, I actually spoke to Steven Marshall this morning. He's keeping his borders open. He understands how important it is for families to be reunited at Christmas.
DAVID SPEERS:
Did you tell him he should?
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Well, he's taken that decision himself. He understands the importance of the economy of keeping those borders open. Let's not forget though South Australia is the first non-COVID state to effectively reopen. So he's watching it closely as he should.
DAVID SPEERS:
So at the moment you've got a mid‑year budget update coming pretty soon…
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Yes.
DAVID SPEERS:
The next two or three weeks, the outlook for growth for the economy?
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Is strong.
DAVID SPEERS:
Is strong. Stronger than at the Budget?
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Well, yes. And what’s why, I'm talking about for next year, obviously, we were hit by the Delta variant and that was something that was not forecast to have your two biggest states, 13 million people going into lockdown, and we saw that play out in the September quarter. But we've already seen the OECD increase their economic outlook for Australia next year from 3.3 to 4.1 per cent. You've got the RBA forecasting growth of up to 5.5 percent by the end of next year. So we'll make those upgrades to our forecasts in MYEFO, on December 16.
DAVID SPEERS:
But you will be forecasting stronger growth.
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
We will be and again that comes as a result of the fact that we now have one of the highest vaccination rates in the world, one of the lowest mortality rates in the world and the labour market is coming back strongly. We've seen 350,000 jobs since the start of September, we've seen strong household consumption, retail sales, at the Black Friday sales was over $5 billion, was very strong…
DAVID SPEERS:
We’re also seeing…
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
…and business investment is up.
DAVID SPEERS:
We're also seeing petrol prices rising rapidly as well, but wages aren’t and wages have really been relatively flat for the eight years you've been in government. Have you worked out why and how to fix it?
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Well, firstly, David, when we came to government, real wages were falling, unemployment was rising in those years before the pandemic, after we came to government real wages increased every year. And we now have the highest minimum wage in the world. Now, our focus at the start of the pandemic was obviously to save jobs, I mean, 1.3 million Australians….
DAVID SPEERS:
I’m asking about wages though Treasurer.
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Yes and this the key point. This is the key point, we saved more than 700,000 jobs. And as a result, unemployment now is at 5.2 per cent, lower than when we came to government. Now the way to get higher wages is to get a tighter labour market. And we're already starting to see some workforce shortages, which will have some positive impact on wages. But the way to drive increased wages is tighter labour markets and we have the RBA forecasting, David, that unemployment will get down into the fours and sustainably be there, and it will be the only the second time in the last 50 years that this has happened. So if you ask me, what has been the most significant economic achievement through this pandemic, it's about it's been saving jobs and getting the unemployment rate down and avoiding the long term unemployment that we saw in Australia after the 80s and 90s recessions.
DAVID SPEERS:
Look, you started working in Parliament House more than 20 years ago as an advisor…
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
I had hair back then.
DAVID SPEERS:
I remember it. Were you surprised by the findings this week of the Kate Jenkins inquiry into the culture of the place?
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
It was a wakeup call. And as Kate has described in the report it…
DAVID SPEERS:
Was it was familiar to you though?
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Not to that extent. Not to that extent and obviously the last couple of years, there's been some very concerning allegations that have been raised. But what Kate Jenkins said in this report was that there was a normalised culture of misconduct. That is completely unacceptable in any workplace, let alone the nation's workplace. The Australian people have a right to expect that we are leaders and that we hold ourselves to the highest of standards and the best practice. So we have to get on with acting on this Kate Jenkins report. It's a multi-party process…
DAVID SPEERS:
When will that happen?
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Well the Minister's already acted. He has already sought some further information from his Department. Cabinet will consider it before the year‑end. We'll be taking action on all the recommendations…
DAVID SPEERS:
Before the end of the year.
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
We will be taking action on all the recommendations, we’re absolutely leaning into this. But this is a multi‑party process. This is our chance I think. This is our chance to draw a line in the sand and say to the Australian people, we will be better than we have been.
DAVID SPEERS:
That all sounds good. Kate Jenkins though does make it clear one of the biggest issues is getting more women into Parliament, right? The New South Wales branch of the Liberal Party has adopted a target of 50 per cent female candidates at the election. Your branch, the Victorian branch has no target at all. And then if you look at the most recent pre-selections to replace Tony Smith, Scott Ryan, Kevin Andrews, all blokes for the Liberal Party.
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
And Sarah Henderson just got number one on our ticket. We obviously got a vacancy now in Flinders, we've got a very strong female candidate running…
DAVID SPEERS:
No guarantee a male candidate won’t be running as well?
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
…And then in two seats that we're looking to pick up, Sharn Coombes, in Dunkley, and Steph Asher, the Mayor of Geelong in Corangamite. We've got two outstanding female candidates. Look as…
DAVID SPEERS:
But your track record, it's up to the pre‑selectors and they keep picking blokes.
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
That’s not right and they…
DAVID SPEERS:
But they did.
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Like I said for the Senate, number one on the ticket is a female and she's a great Senator in Sarah Henderson.
DAVID SPEERS:
But she’s already in.
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
But look, you make an important point, though, about how we have to work together to get more women into Parliament, but there has been progress. I mean, 25 years ago, David, around 20 per cent of the parliamentarians were women. 10 years ago it was around 30 per cent. Today, we're approaching 40 per cent. In the Senate, it's 50‑50. So we are making progress.
DAVID SPEERS:
But in the Liberal Party, what is it?
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Well, in the Liberal Party, we're been at about 38 per cent. And we've got to do better.
DAVID SPEERS:
In Federal Parliament?
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Well, it's lower in the House, higher in the Senate.
DAVID SPEERS:
25, 26 per cent.
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
It's lower in the House, in the Senate it’s up there.
DAVID SPEERS:
You plans haven't worked on this have they?
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Well, we've made progress.
DAVID SPEERS:
Not enough.
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
We’ve got to do more.
DAVID SPEERS:
Josh Frydenberg thanks for joining us and all the best for Christmas and the new year.
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Thank you.