KARL STEFANOVIC:
Treasurer, good morning to you. Have you got anything you can pull out of your hat?
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Nice to be with you. Well, a lower unemployment rate is what we saw yesterday, Karl. So, 4.6 per cent. It is better when it goes down than up.
KARL STEFANOVIC:
I couldn't quite believe it. I almost fell off my chair when I saw that.
ALLISON LANGDON:
It is a good headline though. But if you break it down a bit, the news is not so good, is it?
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Well, Ally, it doesn't tell the full story. Of course, in New South Wales it took into account the second and third week of the lockdown and we saw that the number of hours worked in New South Wales fell by 7 per cent over the course of that month. On the other side, you saw in Victoria where they were emerging out of lockdown, the number of hours worked increased by nearly 10 per cent. So what it does show is that the economy is very resilient. We will bounce back and that occurs when restrictions are lifted and you start to suppress the virus. But you are right, right now we are going through a very difficult time. We are not celebrating these numbers. We are very much focused on getting the economic support, both to the businesses in New South Wales and across the country, as well as the household support through the COVID disaster payment.
KARL STEFANOVIC:
How much are you factoring in terms of jobless? Because it was only a matter of weeks ago that, I think, it was either the SMH or the Fin Review who carried the story of losing 10,000 jobs, I think it was either a day or a week. What are you expecting the real figure to be? And how does that impact on the rest of the country the longer this is protracted?
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
We are seeing the impact, not so much in the number of people who have lost work altogether, but in the number of people who are working or employed but have zero hours effectively of work because the health restrictions mean that they can't turn up to the office, or they can't turn up at the shop, or do their other jobs. And we saw in New South Wales that 230,000 people actually were employed on zero hours over the course of that month as a result of the lockdown. So it is having a real impact but again, last year, Karl, we saw the unemployment rate reach as high as 7.4 per cent in July, but today it is down to 4.6 per cent. And when you talk to the banks, who have a bird's-eye view of the economy, they say the level of customer distress is nowhere near what they saw this time last year. We know that in New South Wales they are providing relief to retail tenants. I have spoken to the Tax Commissioner. He is providing relief to taxpayers who are in hardship. The banks are providing relief with deferrals of loan repayments and of course, our $750 payments have gone out to 1.4 million Australians. So that is very significant support that hopefully is cushioning the blow but no-one is diminishing the very, very difficult times that people watching your program right now are going through.
ALLISON LANGDON:
Because it is interesting to hear you say that because, as you will know, Karl and I talk to business owners every single morning. Three and a half hours, several every single day. It is just not the sentiment we are hearing from businesses themselves, from small businesses. This year is a lot, lot tougher and a lot more feel that they are not going to get through and they don't feel that you are giving them enough support.
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Well, in the case of New South Wales, we are seeing more than half a billion dollars go out the door to businesses over the course of every week. That is the expectation of the payments that we are providing with the New South Wales Government. Yesterday in Victoria, we announced in partnership with the Victorian Government, $807 million for small and medium-sized businesses. In Queensland, we partnered with the Palaszczuk Government in a $600 million program, and we have done similar programs across South Australia, Tasmania, Northern Territory, the ACT and we are working with WA. So we are putting our hands deep into our pockets to provide that economic support to small business. I know how difficult it is. I know for the cafe that it can't have people seated in the cafe or in the restaurant as they normally would. I know for the cleaner who can't turn up at their workplace because there is no-one in the office, and I know how difficult it is for people working from home and also having their kids home-schooled. That is a really, really difficult time but they need to know that our economic support is there, it is unprecedented in scale, there is confidence and hope and it is based on the Doherty Institute modelling, the plan that was agreed by all the premiers and the chief ministers. Once we get to 70 and 80 per cent vaccination, we know that stringent lockdowns, Karl and Ally, are unlikely. We know that the transmissibility of the virus gets reduced. We know that the number of people who get serious illness reduces and that's why everyone needs to roll up their sleeve and get the jab. It was so pleasing to see just yesterday 309,000 people getting the jab. That's more than three MCG's full on grand final day. That is an incredible number. 215 a minute. People's hesitancy about getting the vaccination is reducing each and every day.
KARL STEFANOVIC:
The problem is, unfortunately for Melbourne, they are unlikely to see any capacity at the ‘G for some time. We have still got this ongoing problem in Sydney. It is such an issue. We had another institute on yesterday suggesting that this could be catastrophic if it keeps going the way it is going. The PM says lockdowns in NSW have to work, but there is little sign of that in NSW when people say this could go until Christmas. It breaks businesses' hearts.
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
It certainly does, and they are really going through the most difficult of times. That's why our support is there. But if you get that vaccination rate up, we do know from the medical experts, who know a lot more than you or I, Karl, they tell us that that is the ticket out of this crisis. Look at the United Kingdom. They have a vaccination rate now at 75%, yet they are still seeing 30,000 cases a day, indeed, on some days more than 100 deaths. We are going to have to learn to live with COVID. We have to accept there are going to be deaths. We have to accept there are going to be hospitalisations, but when we get to those targets, we can start to open up the economy. The state premiers should have no expectation that our Commonwealth assistance will continue in the scale that it has been to date because we are working to a plan and that is why the vaccination target of 70 and 80 per cent are so important.
KARL STEFANOVIC:
Josh, you would know this only too well. The state premiers will not accept any amount of COVID. They have got zero tolerance for it, apart from Gladys Berejiklian. So how can we be one nation when the premiers are so divided?
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
It is a fallacy for any person in Australia to think that we can actually eliminate the virus. We can't. No country has done it. Based on the vaccines and their efficacy that we know today, based on the medical advice, you cannot eliminate the virus. We have to live with it. So people have to be straight with the public and tell them there are going to be more cases. There are going to be deaths. But we can't live in lockdown forever. That's our message. And that's why I'm saying to the premiers and to the Chief Ministers, the government's emergency economic support does not continue indefinitely. It is there until we get the vaccination rate to the levels that they agreed with the Prime Minister at National Cabinet. Once we get there, once we get there we need to see an opening up. You have a role to play here, Karl and Ally, just as your viewers do, you have to hold those premiers and chief ministers to account to the agreement they reached at National Cabinet. That is critical to opening up in the future.
KARL STEFANOVIC:
Okay, good to talk to you today. Appreciate it, Treasurer. Have yourself a good weekend.