LEON BYNER:
So I asked Josh Frydenberg, what do you think of that?
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
It shows that the Australian labour market is really recovering strongly, Leon, because what we’re seeing right across the country in all regions and across all sectors is people coming off JobKeeper as the virus has got under control and health restrictions are eased and people get back to work. In the December quarter there were over 2.1 million fewer Australians who were on JobKeeper compared to the period prior, and over 520,000 fewer Australian businesses using JobKeeper. So as you say, in South Australia, the numbers are strong, 67 per cent fall in the number of people on JobKeeper, a 70 per cent fall in WA, a 65 per cent fall in Tasmania, 64 per cent in Queensland, 60 per cent in New South Wales. Unfortunately, Victoria is a different situation with a fall of only 44 per cent because, as we all know, that is the only state to have experienced a second wave.
LEON BYNER:
Josh, what’s the situation with targeted support for certain businesses, particularly in tourism and travel that have really been gutted by what’s happened? What are we doing in that space?
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Well, we’re already rolling out significant support in the tourism sector, which I announced in the Budget. We’re also considering what other support measures we can provide across the economy, bearing in mind that when JobKeeper ends in March there is other programs that are providing billions of dollars into the economy helping to support economic activity. For example, the tax cuts are putting more than a billion dollars a month into people’s pockets. We’ve got $29 billion of infrastructure spending over this year and next. We have got 340,000 training places. We have put in place business investment incentives which will spur economic activity. And, of course, the HomeBuilder program has been very successful in helping the sparkies and the plumbers and the carpenters all get jobs on the building sites as we’ve seen a big jump in loans for new housing starts. So there is some good news across the economy. There’s still a long way to go. There are sectors, as you say, like aviation and tourism that are doing it tough. But these numbers are another proof point that the recovery is underway.
LEON BYNER:
Josh, are state governments in general doing enough to support what you’re putting out in federal taxpayer funds?
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Well, state governments have done some work in terms of the economic support, but the bulk of it, the heavy lifting, has been done by the Federal Government.
LEON BYNER:
Yes.
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
We have committed more than $250 billion in direct economic support, more than $140 billion of that has already gone out the door. And the JobKeeper program will cost us around $90 billion. It’s the biggest economic support program Australia’s ever undertaken. And that’s why it has to come to an end, because we can’t keep a wage subsidy economy wide going forever like that, as well as the fact that as Treasury has pointed out in its review of the program, that if you leave JobKeeper in place when the economy recovers, it has some perverse and adverse incentives. It prevents labour mobility, it prevents people moving between jobs, and it might be propping about businesses that are no longer sustainable. So that’s why we have to bring it to an end.
LEON BYNER:
Look, I want to get your take on a couple of things. Some people are blaming JobKeeper for a reluctance for them to be able to find staff. And, indeed, the area where we’ve got massive vacancies but can’t get works is in regional areas where fruit and other products from the land have got to be harvested. What are we doing about that?
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Well, we’ve provided some financial incentives for people to move to the regions to take up that type of work, bearing in mind that it’s not fit for everybody who may be unemployed.
LEON BYNER:
No.
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
The other thing that we’re doing is working the states to try to bring in some seasonal workers through particular programs, because they would normally come to Australia in quite large numbers. But because of the border restrictions they’ve been unable to come. So we’re looking at those sort of measures. But you’ve identified a real issue, a real issue with labour shortages in some key areas, particularly at harvest time.
LEON BYNER:
Yeah. Look, the other issue, of course, is that we’ve got an eye watering debt of proportions that nobody would have imagined. Are we ever going to be able to pay it off?
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
We will be paying it off over time. But, you’re right, this pandemic’s economic shock, which is the greatest since the Great Depression has led us to borrow more to support the economy. We have no regrets about that. We’ve done what is needed and our economic support, for example, the JobKeeper program, according to Treasury has saved 700,000 jobs. And based on the RBA’s forecasts, Leon, they’re expecting unemployment rate to get back to where it was at the pre-pandemic level within around three years. Now if you compare that to previous Australian recessions like the 1990s, it took a full 10 years to get the unemployment rate back to that level where it was before the recession. So we are seeing a remarkably strong recovery. We’re not out of it yet. And the Government’s economic support has been a big part of that. The other thing I’d say about our debt levels is even when they peak they’re around half of what the US and the UK and even less than half of what it is in Japan. So other countries have much higher debt levels than Australia.