LISA MILLAR:
Good morning Treasurer.
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Good morning, Lisa. Nice to be with you.
LISA MILLAR:
Can I ask you about this move in Queensland from Anastasia Palaszczuk, to suggest that children under 12 have to be vaccinated before those borders open? What do you make of that?
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Well it’s not based on the medical advice that we have. The Doherty Institute modeling upon which the national plan agreed at National Cabinet was based, it took into account the impact of COVID on children. There have been many scientific studies and they've found that the illnesses in children are not as severe as in the older age cohorts, the transmissibility of the virus is not as severe as in the older age cohorts, there is a priority, obviously, to get children who are aged 12 to 15 vaccinated and we've set out a timetable for that, but there is no medical evidence that suggests that those under the age of 12 should be vaccinated right now, we don't have that. And therefore we should open up the country in accordance with that plan that the Premiers of both Queensland and Western Australia as well as the other premiers and chief ministers agreed to a National Cabinet.
LISA MILLAR:
Okay, well, you've got the Queensland Premier walking away from the plan, you got the WA Premier suggesting that you're trying to inflict COVID on them. You've got the SA Premier and the Tasmanian Premier both voicing concerns about what might happen when Australia opens up. Does the national roadmap even exist anymore?
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Well, it's based on the best medical evidence. And I put to you as well, as I put to the premiers, if we don't open up at 70 to 80 per cent vaccination rates at what number do we? And when can businesses have the confidence to reopen? When can they plan for their futures? When can families be reunited either within their own states or across state borders? When can we attend those funerals and those weddings of our loved ones? There are so many issues that that rely upon Australia safely living with COVID. I welcome the recognition in Victoria yesterday that we can't eliminate the virus, we can suppress it, we can buy time as we seek to get high vaccination rates, but we can't eliminate it. And in Queensland and Western Australia, they may not have Lisa, today, the number of cases that New South Wales and Victoria has, but within a week or within a month or at some point, there are going to be outbreaks in those states, and the only pathway out is higher vaccination rates, vaccination rates, which are today lower in those states than it is in the southern states.
LISA MILLAR:
You keep saying the economy will bounce back. But now that you've got two large states that have ditched COVID, zero, why, what are you working on that you're so confident that people are going to have the confidence or the money to spend?
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Well, I'm confident that once restrictions are eased that the economy will bounce back. That being said, we saw in the March quarter, a resilient economy with growth above the market's expectation, particularly…
LISA MILLAR:
But there was more government money going into the economy last time around. I mean, it's completely different. All of the experts yesterday saying it's not going to have the same bounce back.
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Well, what the experts have said is that yesterday was a solid result. And for 29 days out of the June quarter, we saw lock downs in one part of the country or another with respect to the current quarter that we’re in the September quarter Treasury are expecting the economy to contract by at least 2 per cent. And that's a function of New South Wales and Victoria being in lockdown. But once we hit those 70 to 80 per cent targets, we will see an easing of restrictions. And that will be very important to boost household consumption, to give businesses certainty to invest and obviously, to support the creation of more jobs. The economy's recovery very much depends on sticking to this plan.
LISA MILLAR:
Treasurer, what are you going to do about the fact that hundreds of millions of dollars in JobKeeper flowed to companies where turnover either doubled or tripled? You've got to be great regretting that decision not to put something into the legislation to enable a clawback. It's just starting to look super embarrassing, isn't it?
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Absolutely not. This program has been a remarkable success. They're not my words. They're the words of the Governor of the Reserve Bank. We know that when we introduced JobKeeper, the economy was staring into the economic abyss. Treasury thought that the unemployment rate could reach as high as 15 per cent with 2 million plus Australians unemployed, the economy could contract in the June quarter by 20 per cent or more, there were images on our TVs of hundreds of thousands of Australians lining up outside Centerlink which of many was reminiscent of the Great Depression, JobKeeper came in based on an anticipated decline on turnover. That was the Treasury advice. Because we needed to give businesses confidence to hold on to their workers, we needed to give businesses confidence to keep their doors open where they could. As a result, JobKeeper was a key part of that very strong economic recovery, that has now seen the unemployment rate go to a 12 year low of 4.6 per cent. We haven't Lisa, seen the experience in this recession, as we saw in the previous recessions in the 80s and 90s, where the economist talk about the scarring of the labour market, where hundreds of thousands of people became long term unemployed. And one of the reasons for that was JobKeeper. And 98 per cent of the recipients of JobKeeper were actually small businesses. So not only did it stem the tide of job losses, it actually supported the economy, boosted demand, long term…
LISA MILLAR:
There were a lot of big businesses as well. Treasurer, we’ve got to leave it there. Sorry.
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Thank you all the best.