MICHAEL ROWLAND:
Josh Frydenberg joins us now from Melbourne. Treasurer, good morning to you.
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Good morning, Michael. Nice to be with you.
MICHAEL ROWLAND:
I'll get on to the Intergenerational Report in a moment, but, of course, front and centre for most of our viewers this morning are these outbreaks of COVID right around the country. Cabinet's National Security Committee is meeting today, you're a key member of that. What can we expect from that?
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Well, we'll be getting briefed by the Chief Medical Officer about the latest outbreak, as you just said in your introduction, there are new restrictions across a number of states. There have been some border closures, and we're continuing to roll out the vaccine and making extra doses available where possible. This is a critical time because we're dealing with the new Delta strain, which is more contagious, more dangerous. And even though we have rolled out the vaccine to more than 7.3 million doses already, we're going to continue to roll it out as fast as possible, and anyone who's eligible should be rushing out to get their dose.
MICHAEL ROWLAND:
But it's not fast enough. We had the New South Wales Premier, Gladys Berejiklian, again almost pleading over the weekend, Treasurer, for more supplies from the Commonwealth. Clearly, you're not supplying enough for that state's needs, and clearly, as we see in the figures, from most of the states and territories' needs as well?
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Well, we're going from 300,000 doses of Pfizer a week to 600,000 doses, and we'll be making those doses available as quickly as possible. But we have had issues with the AstraZeneca vaccine, as you know, based on the blood clots that have been caused in some recipients. So, those have been issues beyond our control and the AstraZeneca vaccine has been the one that we have been making under licence by CSL here in Australia. But the fact is we're focused on the most vulnerable cohorts, Michael, and the over-50s, we've already seen more than 50 per cent of people receive their first dose. In the over-60s, around 60 per cent have received their first dose, and for the over-70s, nearly 70 per cent have received their first dose. But if you look abroad internationally, it's quite instructive. Because yesterday in the United Kingdom, they had 18,000 new cases, yet they have seen more than 80 per cent of their population receive a first dose and more than 60 per cent of their population receive a second dose. So, I think we're entering a new phase of this pandemic, with the more contagious Delta strain.
MICHAEL ROWLAND:
Now, we've seen various public health failures in New South Wales, including, for whatever reason, airport drivers not being required to be vaccinated, or wear masks, even. Can you still describe New South Wales as having a “gold-standard” response?
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Well, they have been very successful to date, obviously, in dealing with outbreaks and avoiding going into lockdown…
MICHAEL ROWLAND:
…But it's quite the failure this time around?
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Well, I think they'd be the first to admit that those workers should have taken further precautions, and these are the issues that will be discussed not just by the AHPPC but also by state, territory…
MICHAEL ROWLAND:
…Not necessarily precautions, Treasurer. Wasn’t it a failure of having the rules and regulations in place from the State Government?
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Well, again, those rules should be in place to ensure that workers are dealing with vulnerable cohorts have the necessary protections in place. Because we're still dealing with this virus for some time to come, and we need to ensure that the more vulnerable cohorts are protected, and that means having the strictest of restrictions.
MICHAEL ROWLAND:
Ok, now, we're short of time. I want to speak about the Intergenerational Report. It forecasts deficits, assuming no policy changes, until 2060. Falling fertility rates. Big challenges for any government. How will this Government address the challenges posed in this report?
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Well as you know, the IGR comes out every five years. It's always provided pretty sobering news both to Coalition and to Labor governments, because it does show the impact of an ageing population. This year's IGR does show that the Australian economy continues to grow. That our debt is low by international standards. But there are some warning signs, namely the pressure on the Budget from an ageing population, which impacts both on the expenditure side but particularly health and aged care expenditure rising quite significantly, but also on the revenue side, when you get a lower level of workforce participation from an ageing population. It also does show the persistent and longer-term impacts of the COVID pandemic, particularly around population. Because now Australia's population is expected to reach 38 million people, which is lower than what was expected in the previous IGR and that's because the closed borders has seen our population growth at the lowest level in a hundred years. So, these are some of the challenges that we face. But it underlines the importance of economic reform and greater productivity, because that will be the key to our nation's prosperity.
MICHAEL ROWLAND:
One of your predecessors, Peter Costello, of course famously had the baby bonus; one for dad, one for mum, one for the country. Is this something that you'll consider?
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Well, I think we do need to think about how we're going to boost our fertility rates, because we've been below the replacement rate ever since 1976-77, where you require 2.1 babies per woman. And we predicted in the last IGR, Michael, that it would be at 1.9. But right now it's at 1.65, so, it's actually lower than what we had expected, and this means that migration will play a greater role in driving population growth into the future.
MICHAEL ROWLAND:
Treasurer Josh Frydenberg, thanks for joining us this morning.
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
My pleasure.