MICHAEL ROWLAND:
Treasurer, good morning. How concerned are you based on all of that? It was a great headline figure. How concerned are you the jobless rate will jump this current months and months into the future?
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Michael, you're absolutely right, that headline number of 4.6 per cent, while it is the lowest in 12 years, does not tell the full story. What it does tell is a story of what is happening in New South Wales, where hours worked fell by 7 per cent in the month as the survey period took into account the second and third week of the lock down in New South Wales. Whereas, with Victoria, Victoria was emerging out of the lockdown during that period and we saw a 9.7 per cent increase in hours worked, which does indicate that the economy can rebound very strongly once restrictions are eased and that is what we're shooting for, with the 70 and 80 per cent vaccination targets. They’re going to be critical that we reach, and people are getting the vaccination in increased numbers every single day.
MICHAEL ROWLAND:
You have said you expect the economy to contract by 2 per cent this quarter. The Prime Minister believes in miracles. It will be a miracle, won't it, if Australia avoids another recession by the end of the year?
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
In terms of September, everything that has been put to me is that the economy will contract by at least 2 per cent. We are only halfway through the September quarter and we do know that the economy is remarkably resilient. That's underlined in yesterday's numbers, but it is also underlined by the fact that both businesses and households have accumulated some $290 billion on their household and business balance sheets compared to the start of the pandemic last year. That is money that will be spent as restrictions are eased and we also know from the banks that the level of hardship and distress is not as acute as what they saw this time last year across the economy. We are very hopeful and confident that with those Doherty Institute numbers, we can reach that 70 and 80 per cent target and that will allow restrictions to be eased.
MICHAEL ROWLAND:
All focus is on New South Wales again. The New South Wales Premier, Gladys Berejiklian, is insisting on offering undisclosed freedoms to people in her state in about a week and a half time, when the fully vaccinated figure will be roughly 35 per cent or so. Is that advisable in your view?
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
We have made clear that they need to take the lock down seriously and it is very important that the lock down is effective to reduce the number of cases. Decisions as to particular restrictions that they ease will be matters for their own public health authorities but do we know how dangerous, deadly, contagious this particular strain of COVID is, and that is why we implore not just the New South Wales Government, but other governments, to do what they can to get on top of these outbreaks. As you know, the Victorian lock down has been extended for another two weeks. That is pretty tough on people in Victoria, now in lock down for more than 200 days. Yesterday, we announced, in partnership with the Victorian Government, a further $807 million for small and medium size businesses to help get them through this crisis.
MICHAEL ROWLAND:
Do you have complete faith in the way Gladys Berejiklian is handling the outbreak in New South Wales?
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
I am confident she's taking the medical advice. I'm confident she and her Government are doing what is necessary in very difficult circumstances. No one's perfect but what is important is that progress is being made and these are very challenging times and the Delta variant cannot be eliminated. I think people have to understand that. We cannot go for elimination. What we are seeking to do now is suppress the virus, and at the same time, to boost the vaccination numbers. 215 doses being delivered every minute over the last 24 minutes. That is a remarkable number and it shows the hesitancy out there with respect to the AstraZeneca vaccine, in particular, is reducing because more than 40 per cent of those vaccines that were delivered yesterday were actually AstraZeneca vaccines and nearly half of those were people under the age of 60. That is encouraging for the future.
MICHAEL ROWLAND:
It is fantastic to see hesitancy coming down. The New South Wales Premier is very keen on shifting the conversation to living with COVID once we hit the 70 and 80 per cent threshold, but based on the current reproduction rate in New South Wales, and based on the Premier saying she believes current settings are fine, there will be no tougher restrictions, we could be talking about case numbers in the thousands in New South Wales, even though we hit 70 or 80 per cent in November. Would you be comfortable with New South Wales opening up with case numbers that high?
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Again, you're asking me to put myself in the position of those public health officials who have all the data and all the information...
MICHAEL ROWLAND:
You've heard health advice for the last 18 months. You’re one of the senior figures in the Morrison Government. Do you believe that is a safe course of action?
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
My point is that they need to seriously focus on suppressing the virus, taking the necessary action to do so and to get those numbers down, not up. To get those numbers down. As we have seen here in Victoria, it is really difficult to do, even when you have extended lockdowns. So everything needs to be thrown at this challenge...
MICHAEL ROWLAND:
You are keen on getting the numbers down as everybody is, especially our New South Wales viewers. Would you like to see tougher suppression action even before we get to those vaccination targets by the New South Wales Government?
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Michael, the individual measures will be up to their health authorities and to that Government. They are responsible for those public health orders in their state, but they need to take the necessary action in order to suppress the virus because once it gets out, as we have seen, you get hundreds of cases, you get hospitalisations, you get deaths. Once we get to the 70 and 80 per cent vaccination rate, the transmissibility of the virus reduces. The number of people getting the serious illness reduces and, in the words of the Doherty Institute, stringent lock downs become unlikely. That’s why we have to provide hope for the future and states can't expect that the Commonwealth's emergency economic support will continue at the scale it is right now. We have to give people hope that there is light at the end of the tunnel. People are rolling up their sleeves, getting the jabs in record numbers and they are doing so, not just to protect their own families, they are doing so because they want to protect their own job and they want the economy to come back and that's what we have to commit - Premiers, Chief Ministers, the Prime Minister and all of us - to do so.
MICHAEL ROWLAND:
We all live for the day when lockdowns will be nothing but a very bad memory.
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Let's hope so.
MICHAEL ROWLAND:
Thank you for joining us.
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Thank you.