NEIL MITCHELL:
On the line, Federal Treasurer Josh Frydenberg, good morning.
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Good morning, Neil, and good morning to your listeners.
NEIL MITCHELL:
Well, thanks for your time. Can you explain it to me. You are reported as saying that if States get to 80 per cent vaccination levels and still have lockdowns they might not get the same federal assistance as they have in the past. How will it work?
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Well, I was making the point that right now, we're providing an unprecedented level of economic support to the people across Victoria and indeed people across Australia, particularly those who are in lockdown and just yesterday we announced in partnership with the State Government in Victoria $807 million. But we are focusing and working towards getting that vaccination rate consistent with the Doherty modelling of 70 per cent and 80 per cent. Now they say when we get to that rate, in their words, stringent lockdowns are unlikely, the transmissibility of the virus reduces and the number of people who are going to get serious illness also reduces. So what we're focused on doing is getting to that target and not creating any incentives after we get to those targets to have lockdowns because people are really, I think, over the lockdowns as you would know, Neil, your listeners. They understand why they've been taken and done but they need hope for the future and by working towards that plan, which all the State Premiers and the Chief Ministers have agreed to with the Prime Minister, by working towards that plan, that is our light at the end of the tunnel.
NEIL MITCHELL:
So if Victoria, for example, gets to its 80 per cent vaccination rate and there's a couple of cases and the Premier says no, we're going into lockdown again, does that mean no federal assistance?
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Well, I've made it very clear today and yesterday that it's unlikely, that they can expect that our economic assistance will continue in the scale that it is right now. Right now, we're providing $750 a week to people in Victoria, more than 330,000 people are getting our COVID disaster payment who have lost hours of work.
NEIL MITCHELL:
But that would put the people in the middle of it, wouldn't it? So the Premier says we're locking down, you say you don't really need to so there's less federal aid, that means there's less aid going to businesses and people who need it? And the people will be the victims in the middle of that.
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Well, Neil, our focus number one, two and three is about supporting the people of Victoria and we're doing that in many ways, not just with the COVID disaster payment, not just with the business support payment but also with the work we're doing with the tax commissioner to provide relief to people who have tax obligations and they're in hardship, the work we're doing with the banks to provide relief to people who may have mortgage payments or business loans, payments that are due. So it's a full court press. Our focus has always been on helping the Victorian people but the Victorian people also need to understand that their governments, Federal and State, are working together towards a plan and that plan very clearly said at 70 per cent and at 80 per cent you see restrictions ease.
NEIL MITCHELL:
Yes, but the Premier here has shown he's very ‑ he's quick to go to lockdown, rightly and wrongly and some say both, some say right, some say wrong. If he does it and we're at 80 per cent we get punished, correct?
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Well, I'm just saying that there should be no expectation that we, federally, will keep putting our hands deep into our pockets when we get to the point that the vaccination rate is at those levels. That was part of the plan. I mean, we have to level with the Australian people. We can't eliminate COVID‑19. Everything we know, based on the medical advice, is that we're going to have to live with it for some time to come. That means there's going to be illness, that means there's going to be death and that means there's going to be cases. Now, if you look at the United Kingdom, where they have a 75 per cent double dose vaccination rate today, in any one day they're getting 30,000 cases and more than 100 deaths yet they've started to open their… ease their restrictions and open up their economy. What I'm saying is that we want to get to that point but we can't get to that point until we have vaccination rates at a certain level.
NEIL MITCHELL:
There's another interesting one here, though, the Victorian Chief Health Officer has talked about doughnut days and zero as the target. What you're saying there, really, is zero cases is no longer the target?
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
We've never said zero…
NEIL MITCHELL:
The States have.
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
We’ve never said that eliminating COVID is the target. We've always said it's suppression and I understand that even a Victorian State Minister this morning said that I think that the point that Josh is making is when we get to 70 per cent to 80 per cent under the Doherty modelling lockdowns ‑ Doherty modelling, lockdowns should be rare and very targeted. I don't disagree with that. So I think the states understand it, too, because they've signed up to this agreement. This is not us versus the states. This is about saying that we're going to work together towards our plan in order to open up the economy, to give people hope, that the kids can get back to the playgrounds and the kids can get back into school, that businesses can reopen their doors when we start to see vaccination rates at 70 plus per cent.
NEIL MITCHELL:
See part of the music industry is advertising now no jab, no jive. No jab, no jive, which is a nice slogan. Do you think we'll get to that situation more broadly than you must get vaccinated if you work for Qantas but we'll get to the situation that no, you're not coming ‑ and I talk to do a man yesterday who is doing this in his business, put a sign up the front, no jab, no entry. Do you think we'll get to that?
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
I think we'll do that, yes, I do. And I've seen that in other parts of the world where people are, as retailers, or as business owners, are restricting entry onto their premises based on what they considered to be in the safety and the interests of their work force and their customers, namely that vaccinations are required. So I can see certain businesses who have control over who comes into their premises doing that in Australia.
NEIL MITCHELL:
The 807 million you mentioned, you and I have talked before and I've talked to Martin Pakula, too, the State Minister, about people falling through the cracks and nobody wants people falling through the cracks. How is this 807 million going to be distributed? The extra 807?
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Well, it's a combination of programs. You've got the business cost assistance program which is about businesses that fall within particular sectors. So that might be a gym or that might be a hairdresser or that might be a cafe and they're getting $2,800 a week and we estimate that nearly $100,000 businesses will come into that category. Then we've got a licensed hospitality venue fund where if a business, particularly a larger venue, cannot take patrons and obviously has been hit hard by the restrictions, then they can get up to $20,000. Then we've established the small business COVID hardship fund and that is for businesses that have a turnover ‑ a reduction in their turnover of at least 70 per cent. So, they're the businesses that you're talking about that may otherwise fall within the cracks, that will be able to get various grants ranging from $10‑14,000. On top of that, Neil, we've got our COVID disaster payments which we're picking up the bill for at $750 a week for people who have lost 20 hours or more of work and those that have lost between 8‑19 hours of work at $450 and then the State Government has also stepped in, and I welcome this, around commercial tenants and giving them relief.
NEIL MITCHELL:
You're confident they won't be falling through the cracks, not registered for GST, not having ABN, that sort of thing, you're confident we've sort of plugged the gaps?
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Well, again, we're very happy to hear from those businesses that ‑ and the State Government, no doubt, is as well, to ensure that support is being given right across the board because no‑one is immune from this virus and no‑one is immune from the impacts of this virus.
NEIL MITCHELL:
Okay. The job figures yesterday, I think as you've said, they're not real. They're real in the sense that things have moved on there, they're not really that healthy. No spin, no politics, how dangerous is our economic position?
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
It's challenging, but I wouldn't use that word 'dangerous'. That's not a word I would use. And the reason being is that the underlying fundamentals and the inherent strength of the economy is very much there for people to see. Yesterday, you're right, the unemployment rate fell to 4.6 per cent, the lowest in 12 years but we weren't popping the champagne corks, far from it. millions of our fellow Australians are in lockdown and the economy has been hit hard. But what it did show, and this is really interesting in the data. It was a tale of two cities, Melbourne and Sydney. In Sydney it took into account weeks two and three of the lockdown in that State and we saw the number of hours worked fall by 7 per cent. Whereas in Victoria, for most of the period in which this survey was done, Victoria was out of its lockdown and people were getting back to work and hours worked in Victoria increased by nearly 10 per cent. So it does show, Neil, how the economy can rebound strongly once restrictions are eased.
NEIL MITCHELL:
But it's not just going to rebound, is it? It's going to be up and down for probably a year when you consider we will have targeted lockdowns, we will have other problems, we will have surges and things like that. It's going to be bumpy, surely, at the very least for the next year?
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Well, neither you nor I are Nostradamus. We don't have that crystal ball to tell everyone how the Delta variant may morph into a new variant or that how, you know, the next vaccine that comes off the shelf will be more effective than the last. We just don't know. What we do know is based on what the evidence I have in front of me is that COVID will be around for some time. But if we get that level of vaccination rate up, then we can start to see restrictions ease. Just think about it yesterday, Neil. 309,000 people got the jab. That's three MCGs full on grand final day plus some. It's 215 jabs a minute and what was particularly pleasing there was that AstraZeneca made up more than 40 per cent of those numbers and nearly half of that number was people under the age of 60.
NEIL MITCHELL:
Just before we leave the economy, it's up for discussion again, can you ever see Australia going to zero interest rates?
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Well, that is not within my responsibility, as you know, it's a decision of the Reserve Bank. But I think they've signalled that if the interest rates were to move in any way, it would probably be upwards. What they have shown, and don't forget the cash rate is at 10 basis points, it's at a record low. What they have shown is that they have other means at their disposal to support the economy through monetary policy and I'm talking about buying bonds in the secondary market and reducing the borrowing costs for banks.
NEIL MITCHELL:
I understand the decision is with the independent Reserve Bank but you'd have to live with the consequences and the consequences of zero interest rates would be massive, would they not? Imagine what it would do to the housing market?
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
In terms of savers as well. They're not getting much on their savings right now and that's why we've made some other changes to help people who have saved ‑ the housing market would even go higher would interest rates ‑
NEIL MITCHELL:
There goes a generation of kids.
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
I'm not expecting it to happen.
NEIL MITCHELL:
Good. Good. And, as I said, it's not your decision but you'd have to live with the consequences. Just a couple of other quick things. This ‑ I was going to say political thought bubble, that's a bit nasty ‑ the $34.5 billion plan for an underground rail loop, that's stage one in Victoria. Will you be putting any money into that?
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Well, we only got the business case yesterday and as you say, 34.5 billion for the first of four sections and, you know, that's already 70 per cent of the $50 billion that the Andrews Government initially said the project would cost. So we will consider it, like any proposal from any State Government, and the business case would also need to be assessed by Infrastructure Australia. But I say to your listeners, and, of course, to the Victorian Government, that we've poured a lot of money from federal coffers into the State for infrastructure projects, more than $35 billion since we came to Government, and we've got big commitments there, you know, fast rail, Geelong fast rail, the Melbourne Airport rail link, the work we've been doing on the Monash, we're even paying in some areas to remove level crossings, would you believe it, Neil.
NEIL MITCHELL:
Where?
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
In Glenferrie Road, which I have been a champion of because…
NEIL MITCHELL:
That's your electorate, isn't it?
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
It's neighbouring my electorate.
NEIL MITCHELL:
But that's still there.
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
But it's an important project, that Vic Roads has identified as one of the ones where you've got rail, you've got trams and you've got cars.
NEIL MITCHELL:
Is that the one down near your tennis club, down near Kooyong tennis courts?
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Correct, correct.
NEIL MITCHELL:
But there's nobody working on that.
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
There's more than a couple of thousand cars that are banked up there every day.
NEIL MITCHELL:
So you are going to pay to fix it? The federal is going to pay to fix it?
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
We announced it before the last election. We want to work constructively with the State Government to do so. That is one of the…
NEIL MITCHELL:
Good luck.
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Good luck! That is one of Vic Roads priority for level crossings to remove.
NEIL MITCHELL:
Come on, you did announce a few car parks before the last election, we saw what happened there.
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Well, we are looking forward to delivering them. But the point is, Neil, we want to see infrastructure being built in Victoria. That requires a partnership between us and the Victorian Government and we're willing and able partners.
NEIL MITCHELL:
A couple of very quick things. Have you heard the latest reports from Afghanistan? Have you got anything on that? We've heard there's a plane landed in Perth but there are still Australians who just can't get through to the airport?
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Look, I'm about to join a National Security committee meeting obviously to discuss those issues.
NEIL MITCHELL:
Okay, fair enough. Anti‑Semitic attacks here in Melbourne, you'd no doubt be aware of them.
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Yes.
NEIL MITCHELL:
As a result of that engagement party. What was your reaction to that?
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Well, racism has no form in the community, be that Islamophobia or anti‑Semitism or, indeed, against any other minority group. What happened with that engagement party was wrong. It was in breach of the law and obviously, you know, the relevant authorities will take the next steps. But that's not an excuse for any latent anti‑Semitism to rise to the surface. It's not an excuse to belittle our fellow Australians.
NEIL MITCHELL:
New South Wales is putting together ideas on freedoms for people who have been vaccinated, as I said a moment ago. Are you working on the same thing federally?
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
No. Decisions about easing restrictions are going to be matters for state governments under their own public health orders. I've seen the same reports that you've seen.
NEIL MITCHELL:
And a listener wants to know do you really believe that rail loop will ever be started or completed?
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Well, again, the cost is obviously being borne by the State Government, so that's a matter that you'd have to put to Daniel Andrews.
NEIL MITCHELL:
Good luck with that. And you mentioned before it was a full court press, is that a tennis term?
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
That's a basketball court ‑ a basketball term, Neil. You've been spending too much time in front of the screen. You need to get out there on the courts when they allow you to.
NEIL MITCHELL:
It's been a long time.
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Full court press is getting all the players onto the basket, although probably a few callers will ring up and say I got that wrong.
NEIL MITCHELL:
You're the tennis pro, what what's the equivalent in tennis?
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Serving and volleying, taking over the net.
NEIL MITCHELL:
Thank you very much. Josh Frydenberg the Federal Treasurer.