NEIL MITCHELL:
On the line, the Federal Treasurer, Josh Frydenberg. Good morning.
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Good morning, Neil. Nice to with be you and your listeners.
NEIL MITCHELL:
Is Victoria being too tough?
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Well, Victoria has to make their own decisions about the public health orders. I’m pleased that there was a recognition by the Premier that we can’t eliminate the virus. No country has done that. That’s not the medical advice that is available to us that we can. So we need to learn to live with the virus. That means suppressing it, buying time as we get more people vaccinated and seeking to ease restrictions in a COVID‑safe way. It may start with playgrounds, it may go broader than that. But I think it’s important that people see the road map out.
NEIL MITCHELL:
But we’re basically locked down till October. We’re basically locked down until we get 80 per cent vaccination. Is that too tight, too tough?
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Well, I heard the Premier talk about easing of restrictions as well when you get to 70 per cent.
NEIL MITCHELL:
That means you can travel 10kms instead of 5. It doesn’t mean businesses can open.
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Well, again, we do need to provide that road map out. We do need to act in accordance with the plan. And the plan that was agreed at National Cabinet said very clearly you would get restrictions eased at 70 per cent and then further restrictions eased at 80 per cent. It’s enormously critical that people have the hope that the plan does deliver, and that means we go and get the jabs as quickly as possible and then we see an easing of restrictions once we get to that 70 and 80 per cent.
NEIL MITCHELL:
Will financial support to Victorian businesses and people continue from the federal government through until October?
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Well, again, I’ve been very clear publicly - there should be no expectation on behalf of premiers and chief ministers that the scale of our economic support which we’re providing right now will continue once we get to those targets of 70 and 80 per cent.
NEIL MITCHELL:
No, no, but I’m talking about before that. I mean now. Between now and the 70 and 80 per cent, do you guarantee continued support?
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Well, we’ll be supporting Victorians between now and when we get to that 70 per cent target. Then we need to see what sort of restrictions are eased from there. But we’ve provided in partnership with the Victorian government more than $2 billion to Victorians for this most recent lockdown right now.
NEIL MITCHELL:
Do you accept this could be - what’s happening now could be the final straw for some small business?
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Yes. The pain of small business is only matched by the pain of families who have been subject to, as you say, the longest lockdown in the world arguably. And it’s devastating. And what I’ve been concerned about is not just the economic impact as Treasurer, which is obviously real with businesses closing and jobs being lost, but it’s also the mental health impact that the virus and the lockdown is having. In Victoria more than 340 teenagers are week are turning up at hospitals with mental health-related issues; anxiety, depression, eating disorders and sometimes worse. And it’s of great concern to me that this shadow pandemic that former Australian of the Year and noted psychiatrist Patrick McGorry has talked about. It is very really and it’s occurring in our midst.
NEIL MITCHELL:
Is this - do you feel that this crisis, because it’s gone on so long, this year it’s deeper than last year, despite the horrendous death rate last year? That in the community this is hurting more, this is deeper?
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Well, last year, being the first experiences of lockdown, people thought once they got through it that the virus was behind them and that they could adopt and adapt to their new lives in a COVID‑safe way. I think that this year with the Delta variant it’s been another blow and particularly the length of the lockdowns that we’ve seen on the east coast. And I do think it’s been harder for a lot of people. Certainly that’s the feedback that I’ve been getting.
NEIL MITCHELL:
Queensland says they won’t open until kids are vaccinated, which has been criticised roundly. Western Australia says they’re not going to infect their own people. There really is very little hope of getting a national reopening strategy, is there now? Is just seemed to have crumbled.
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Well, it’s very disappointing to hear those words from Queensland and Western Australia because it’s in their publics’ interest. It’s certainly in their economic interest that they learn to live with Covid in a safe way and that they open up in accordance with the plan. In Western Australia there are job shortages, labour shortages, in their major industries like construction and resources. In Queensland they’ve got a very large tourism sector whether it’s in Cairns, Sunshine Coast, Gold Coast, who are crying out for their customers to come back and who are doing it very tough. And, of course, the medical advice that’s been provided to us does not support delaying the opening up of the economy because children under the age of 12 haven’t been vaccinated. There’s no country in the world that’s vaccinating that age group. We are vaccinating kids from 12 to 15, and we’ve laid out the plan to do so. And, of course, 16 and above we’re current vaccinating. And the Doherty Institute themselves have said that they took into account the impact of COVID on kids when they came up with their road map.
NEIL MITCHELL:
The economy, the figures were better than expected yesterday, the national accounts figures. But you seem to be suggesting we’re still going to slip next time. The real impact is yet to hit, isn’t it?
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Well, that’s true because in the September quarter you’ll see the real impact of the extended lockdowns in our two largest states - New South Wales and Victoria - with Treasury estimating that the contraction in the economy could be at least 2 per cent. What we saw in the June quarter was economic growth of 0.7 per cent, which was above market expectations and through the year the economy has grown by 9.6 per cent. But there were lockdowns in the June quarter, Neil. Twenty-nine days out of the quarter saw lockdowns in various parts of our country at any one time, including in our four largest states, including in Victoria.
NEIL MITCHELL:
So are we going to avoid recession? You’re saying that they’ll be all right next time around?
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
No, I’m saying the September quarter, which we’re currently in, will see the economy contract, and Treasury are saying by at least 2 per cent. What happens in the quarter after that is highly dependent on sticking to the plan and seeing an easing of the restrictions as more people get vaccinated.
NEIL MITCHELL:
The very plan that Queensland and WA are undermining.
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
And that’s why you saw 80 of our largest companies come out very publicly yesterday and say that all Premiers, all Chief Ministers and the Prime Minister need to stick to the plan. We need to give businesses and families hope that there is light at the end of the tunnel.
NEIL MITCHELL:
Okay. Do you agree that if we’d got the vaccine out there quicker we wouldn’t be in this comparatively bad economic position? If we’d vaccinated people quicker? If it hadn’t been a slow, it’s-not-a-race-type exercise?
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Well, as you know, we sought to get as many vaccines as quickly as we could, including having the domestic sovereign capability to manufacture AstraZeneca. Then we had the issue that was not just in Australia - it was around the world - about blood clots with particular vaccines and the ATAGI advice that confined it to certain age cohorts. I’m pleased, though, since that time they’ve revised their advice. Vaccine hesitancy has fallen and people are now getting the vaccine in record numbers.
NEIL MITCHELL:
Yeah, but we wouldn’t be in this position if the vaccine uptake had been quicker, would we?
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Well, of course we’re seeking to get more vaccines as quickly as possible. But I’m very pleased that we’re on track for that 70 to 80 per cent.
NEIL MITCHELL:
The AMA says hospitals are not ready. The AMA President says hospitals are not ready for what’s about to happen. What can you do about that? I know it’s a state issue, but you put the money in. What can you do about it?
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Well, firstly, we have put the money in - more than $30 billion of additional economic support.
NEIL MITCHELL:
Well, he says they’re not ready. They’re not ready.
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Well, these numbers are instructive. I’m advised that right now across the country there are 84 people on ventilators across the country. We did a surge of ventilated beds across the country, lifting them from 2,000 to 7,500. So that’s what’s available today. And we continue to work with the states. National Cabinet have got a working group working on these particular issues of ensuring that we’ve got sufficient surge capacity in our state hospital systems to meet any increased demand.
NEIL MITCHELL:
Okay. So you’re confident the hospital system is ready?
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
I’m confident that everything is being done to ensure that they are.
NEIL MITCHELL:
Okay. So the two keys now - we’ve got to vaccinate and we’ve got to get hospitals ready. That’s the key now, isn’t it?
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
We’ve certainly got to vaccinate and, of course, we’ve always got to take those precautions to ensure that our hospital system is ready. But, look, that 70 to 80 per cent target, it’s now in sight.
NEIL MITCHELL:
Are you now accepting that JobKeeper really was effectively reported by a number of companies that were making good money but still accepting that welfare?
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Neil…
NEIL MITCHELL:
Are you getting it back? Are you getting it back?
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Okay, I’m really pleased that you’ve asked me this question because people need to understand listening to this program that JobKeeper saved the economy, that we avoided what the economists call a scarring in the labour market, which is another term for long-term unemployment that we saw in previous recessions in the 80s and 90s. We avoided that in this recession because of programs like JobKeeper. It saved more than 700,000 jobs. And when we introduced JobKeeper we did so based on an anticipated decline in turnover because we needed to give businesses confidence to hold on to their staff and then to plan for their futures. Now, when we did so, you remember, there were hundreds of thousands of our fellow Australians and Victorians lining up outside Centrelink having lost their jobs. Many saw those images as reminisce isn’t of the Great Depression.
NEIL MITCHELL:
I accept it was important. But what I’m saying is effectively you’ve been giving unemployment benefits to people who are filthy rich. I mean, a lot of companies who didn’t need it got it. Is it coming back from them? Not enough. Not all of them.
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Well, the first thing to say is that I would welcome companies who are in a position to pay back JobKeeper to do so. And I’ve been consistent on that. Secondly, the program went for 12 months. The first six months based on Treasury advice was an anticipated decline in turnover. The second six months was based on an actual decline in turnover. This was a remarkable program. They’re not my words - they are the words of the Reserve Bank Governor of Australia.
NEIL MITCHELL:
You need to get away, one last point: you said no country in the world has beaten Delta. China says it has. Don’t we believe China?
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Well, I don’t believe any country has beaten Delta. And there are examples of new cases in China, as there are in other countries.
NEIL MITCHELL:
Will you be back for Father’s Day?
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
That’s my hope.
NEIL MITCHELL:
You’re not going to spend it with the Prime Minister at the Lodge, the two of you?
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
No, I’m not. I’m hoping to get home at the end of this parliamentary sitting week with my fellow parliamentarians. It’s been a long time away from home. But it’s not about me, it’s right now about all those other Victorians who are doing it tough.
NEIL MITCHELL:
I agree.
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
And my thoughts, Neil, are with health professionals on the frontline, my thoughts are with those small business owners who are doing it tough and, of course, my thoughts are with families with their kids out of school who are looking for this ray of hope into the future.
NEIL MITCHELL:
Thank you for your time. Thank you very much.
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Always a pleasure.
NEIL MITCHELL:
Federal Treasurer, Josh Frydenberg.