OLIVER PETERSON:
And joining me live on 6PR Breakfast is the Treasurer, Josh Frydenberg. Good morning.
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Good morning, Oli. Nice to be with you.
OLIVER PETERSON:
Nice to have you on the program, Treasurer. Population predictions, they’re set to tumble. So, as your old mate Peter Costello once said, is it one for mum, one for dad and one for the country?
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
It would be great if we had larger families as a nation because our fertility rate has been in decline. In order for the population to be replaced, you require 2.1 babies for every woman, yet in Australia, the ratio is now 1.65 and will continue to decline over the years ahead. So immigration will continue to play a larger role in our population growth and the declining fertility rate, Oli, has been exacerbated by the impact of COVID on our migration, which has seen population growth now at its lowest level in 100 years. And so, even though migration does pick up in the years ahead, we don’t make up for lost ground caused by the closed borders during COVID.
OLIVER PETERSON:
We’ll come to migration in a moment, but by extension is it time to go even further with your early learning initiatives? We make, obviously, junior, secondary, tertiary education free for all. Why not early learning as it will put those children at a huge advantage and provide particularly women even greater flexibilities and opportunities in the workforce?
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Well, we did put more money in the Budget for early learning, also for childcare because that’s a workforce participation initiative as well. So, we are funding these programs. There’re also roles for states to be funding these programs as well. But when we look at our fertility rate and encouraging families to become larger, what we’re seeing right now is a reflection about lifestyle changes. More women entering into the workforce, people having families at a later age than they previously were, and so there is a bit of a change occurring among the demographics of our nation.
OLIVER PETERSON:
To grow the economy we need people, but the door is shut. We had estimates from the Chamber of Minerals and Energy here in Western Australia last week. The mining industry alone, Treasurer, needs 40,000 additional workers over the next two years. But, as I say, the door to Australia is closed. What’s the Government going to do about it?
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Well, we had an assumption in the Budget that the borders will gradually reopen from the middle of next year. Now that was an assumption, not a policy decision, so we will continue to take the medical advice as to when it is safe to open the borders. But one of the reasons why our nation and Western Australia has been so successful in suppressing the virus is because we closed those international borders earlier than many other countries. We started with China and then we closed them more broadly. That avoided the fate here in Australia that we’ve seen, for example, in the United Kingdom or indeed in the United States. And so, we benefited from the fact that we’re an island nation. Now, the United Kingdom is an island, yet it didn’t close its borders and we’ve seen what has happened there. We’ve got to be very cautious around borders and we’ve got to take the medical advice because you’ve seen how damaging it is across the country for state-wide lockdowns as a result of outbreaks of new cases.
OLIVER PETERSON:
You’ve got two weeks at least in New South Wales. Will the Federal Government support packages be made available? What about tourism businesses over here in WA who are now not going to have those tourists coming in from other parts of the country as well? I know it’s the whole nation that’s dealing with this moment, Treasurer, but there’s going to be many, many businesses, mums and dads and families, who are hurting over these next couple of weeks.
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Well, you’re right about the impact being significant and beyond just one state’s borders. We have made an announcement about support for New South Wales, as we did for Victoria where there is a lockdown that extends beyond one week. And that’s income support. It’s not an extension of JobKeeper because that was always a temporary emergency payment that came to an end and it was the right call to do so. We have other measures we announced in the Budget which are designed to generate economic activity, including the half‑price airfares that is helping to boost tourism, as well as the investment incentives, the tax relief, the skills programs. Many of those were designed in the context of the pandemic in which we are now, Oli, given that we understand that we’re not out of it just yet.
OLIVER PETERSON:
Debt and deficit though for 40 years. We might not even be here, Treasurer, by then.
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Well other IGRs, previous IGRs, whether they were the two that were delivered during the Howard–Costello years or the IGR that was delivered during the Rudd-Gillard years, they all said that there would be deficits in the outer period and that is because of the ageing of the population and the impact that has on both expenditure and revenue. So, IGRs tend to provide pretty sobering news, but they’re based on existing policy settings and you and I know, Oli, that policies do change over the course of 40 years. So, it’s not a prediction of what will be. It’s an insight into what could be and it’s also a warning sign that governments need to continue to take action and introduce reforms.
OLIVER PETERSON:
Just before you go, Federal Cabinet was due in Perth next week. Has that been cancelled due to COVID‑19?
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
It looks very unlikely and I was looking forward to coming to Perth but, obviously, the new restrictions, the new outbreaks, make that travel very difficult in the current circumstances and no doubt we will be meeting virtually, if not in person.
OLIVER PETERSON:
Appreciate your time this morning, Josh Frydenberg. Thank you very much.
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
My pleasure.