PAUL MURRAY:
And I had a chance to talk to the Treasurer about this and a whole lot more, including the need to stick to the plan and open everything up at 70 and 80 per cent.
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Well, there was significantly a very different tone in Victoria today and an acceptance by the Premier that the state needs to learn to live with COVID. They can’t eliminate the virus. Delta is more contagious than previous variants, and this is the reality that the rest of the world has confronted and Australia needs to confront. And that’s why I’ve been saying we need to have an honest conversation with the Australian people. They need to know that living the virus does mean more cases, it does mean people will get seriously ill, particularly the ones who are unvaccinated, and tragically it will mean some deaths. But if we don’t learn to live with the virus then the cost to the economy of these lockdowns but, more concerningly, the cost to people’s wellbeing and particularly our younger people - I know people whose kids are really, really struggling with mental health issues as a result of the lockdowns.
And the numbers tell a very powerful story. There have been more than 340 teenagers a week who have been presenting at Victorian hospitals with mental health issues. Now that’s a 163 per cent increase on the numbers that existed pre-pandemic. In New South Wales it’s about a 50 per cent increase. And the concerns are particularly for not just young people but young girls and a growing number of eating disorders and other, you know, various mental health challenges that people are confronting.
So Patrick McGorry, who knows a lot more about this than either you or I, a former Australian of the Year and noted psychiatrist, has talked about the shadow pandemic that’s occurring in our midst. And while we need to do everything, Paul, to try to reduce the chance that someone gets Covid - because it is a serious illness - at the same time, we’ve got to balance that with other health concerns, other health priorities by protecting people’s wellbeing and their mental health.
PAUL MURRAY:
For those who were desperately hoping for a recession, it’s not happening. In fact, in the past three months the Australian economy grew, and compared to every other country bar the United States that is best-in-class performance. Places like the UK, Japan, France, they are all going backwards; Australia is going forwards. Now, no doubt in the three months we’re living right now in lockdown our economy will go backwards. But to actually hit a recession, you need six full months of going backwards. So as small a point as that might be, Australia avoiding a recession is really big news.
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Well, that economic support has been critical as people have lost hours of work. It’s meant that they continue to get an income. For businesses that have seen their doors closed to their customers, they continue to get government support. That means they can meet that fixed cost, whether it’s the rent, whether it’s the energy bill, whether it’s, you know, other fixed costs that their businesses incur.
But today’s national accounts showed a pretty solid set of numbers. Growth was 0.7 per cent, which was better than market expectations. It’s 9.6 per cent through the year. And what was particularly pleasing in the numbers today when you unpack them, Paul, is that it was household consumption - so families going out and spending, whether it’s on tourism or transport or at hotels or cafes - as those restrictions eased they spent money. We also saw a big increase in housing development and investment. There’s a pipeline now of 151,000 house approvals that’s been given off the back of the last year as a result of programs like HomeBuilder.
We saw business investment - machinery and equipment - the farmer get the harvester, the café going and getting a new coffee machine, the tradie getting some new tools. We’re actually seeing machinery and equipment up by more than 20 per cent since last October’s budget. That’s the strongest increase in machinery and equipment expenditure that the country has seen in nearly 20 years.
And then, of course, we’ve had a bumper winter crop. And so farm GDP is up by more than 48 per cent year on year. So it’s actually a very pleasing set of numbers in a very difficult set of circumstances because in that June quarter you still had 29 days where there were lockdowns in one part of the country or another, including across our four largest states. So it does underline the resilience of the economy and it does give us hope and confidence for the future.