PETER STEFANOVIC:
Treasurer, good to see you. Thanks for your time, as always. Now, you mentioned last night that the federal assistance will drop after 70 per cent targets are reached. What help will be cut, and by how much?
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Well, Pete, all Premiers, all Chief Ministers, the Prime Minister, have brought the same ticket out of this crisis, and that’s to get the vaccination rates up to 70 to 80 per cent. And that is what the Doherty Institute has recommended, and at that point in time they say that stringent lockdowns become unlikely, the transmissibility of the virus reduces, so, too, the number of cases across the community with serious illness as a result of COVID‑19. So at that point there should be no expectation on behalf of the states and the territories that the commonwealth’s significant emergency economic support will continue at the scale that it has already been delivered. And this is because we need to give the public hope that once we reach this 70 per cent target – and, indeed, the 80 per cent target – that the restrictions will start to ease. The vaccination rate is rising rapidly – 309,000 doses delivered in just one day, a record number – and it’s very clear that the public are tired of the lockdowns and they know that the vaccination rate and themselves getting the vaccination is the key out of this crisis.
PETER STEFANOVIC:
So that assistance, which it drops after 70 per cent targets are reached, is that – that’s a national target of 70 per cent or when a state reaches 70 per cent?
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Well, as you know, the Doherty Institute set out a two-key target – you needed to reach 70 per cent in an individual state and you needed the 70 per cent at the national level. Now states like New South Wales are moving rapidly ahead of a number of other states in terms of vaccination – they’re about 10 percentage points on first dose ahead of states like Western Australia. So it’s important that all states lift their vaccination rates and more supply is coming online each and every day, because the vaccination is our ticket out of this crisis.
PETER STEFANOVIC:
So are you talking about disaster payments or the small business payments? And will they be cut completely or will they be halved? Will they just be a percentage of them cut? What are you talking about?
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Well, of course right now we’re providing very significant economic support both through the COVID disaster payment where more than $3.1 billion is out the door – 1.4 million Australians have been receiving that payment – and the business support where we’ve entered into partnerships on a 50-50 funding bases with the states. Just yesterday we announced in partnership with Victoria $807 million for the next two weeks of lockdown –
PETER STEFANOVIC:
But are you threatening to cut all of it, or just the extent of those payments?
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Well, what I’m saying very clearly is once we get to that 70 per cent target the Doherty Institute modelling that is said that stringent lockdowns become unlikely, and at that point the state Premiers and the Chief Ministers have to level with their public and say, “We set that target.” People have been faithful to reaching that target. They’ve gone out and got the vaccination, so at that point in time restrictions should ease. And if that can be done so earlier in a COVID-safe way then that is going to be a decision for the individual states under their public health orders.
PETER STEFANOVIC:
Okay.
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Once we get to that 70 per cent target, there’s an expectation that restrictions start to ease.
PETER STEFANOVIC:
As for now, though, New South Wales is facing the longest unbroken lockdown of any state. Do you think more support for business will be needed? Yes or no?
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Well, we are providing very significant support. As you know, our payments in partnership with the state government are seeing businesses with turn overs between $75,000 and $250 million –
PETER STEFANOVIC:
Yeah, but no more?
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
– receive up to $100,000 a week. Well, that is very significant economic support. We have also worked with the Tax Office to ensure that relief is being provided to those businesses in hardship. We’re working the banks who are providing relief for people who can’t meet their mortgage payments or, indeed, small businesses that can’t meet their loan repayments. And within New South Wales, as it is their responsibility, they’ve introduced some measures designed to help commercial and retail tenants. That’s all welcome and it's in addition to the small business support and the income support. But what we do know is that the vaccination program is gaining real momentum. That’s to be welcomed. And the Australian people are to be congratulated on how they’re rolling up their arms and getting the jabs – rolling up their sleeves and getting the jabs.
PETER STEFANOVIC:
Can you guarantee, Treasurer, the country won’t face a second recession on your watch?
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Well, right now we’re halfway through the September quarter and we know that the September quarter, based on what we’ve already seen, is expected to be negative in the sense that the economy will contract in the September quarter, and Treasury is saying by at least 2 per cent. We also know that the economy has rebounded back very strongly in the past during COVID when restrictions are eased. As long as we’re getting on top of this virus, as long as more people are getting the vaccination, as long as we’re heading towards those targets, I’m confident that the economy will rebound strongly. And it’s not just me saying that; it’s also the Reserve Bank of Australia, it’s also what Treasury is saying. And it’s also what Australia’s recent experience has been.
PETER STEFANOVIC:
Okay. Treasurer, thanks for your time. Talk to you soon.