PETER STEFANOVIC:
Let's go to Canberra now. Joining us is the Treasurer Josh Frydenberg. Treasurer, good morning to you. So, fourth budget's up.
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Good morning, Pete.
PETER STEFANOVIC:
It's to be unveiled. Now you've had some mountains to climb during that time, no doubt about that. How does this one compare?
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Well, as you say, it's my fourth budget. Budgets that have been delivered in the face of drought, fires, floods, the global pandemic and now war in Europe. So there have been a difficult set of domestic and international circumstances. But we have seen Australia's remarkable economic recovery underlined by the unemployment rate, which came in at 4 per cent yesterday, the lowest in 14 years. And, importantly, female unemployment at 3.8 per cent is the lowest level since 1974. And the economy here in Australia has been much stronger and faster to recover than any major advanced economy in the world, whether it's the United States, the United Kingdom, Japan, Canada, Germany, France or Italy – Australia has been much stronger than each of those economies.
PETER STEFANOVIC:
Okay. One of the headlines figure assist this trillion‑dollar debt. It's been that way for a while. But now we're talking about a reduction. So how much lower will debt and deficit be this time around?
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Well, in the budget to be unveiled in just over 11 days we will actually see the fiscal dividend of a strong economy, Pete. So we've seen lower unemployment and, as a result, you get more tax revenue and you have lower outgoings for welfare payments. We've also seen strong commodity prices, higher than what was initially forecast in the budget. These are all helping to improve the budget bottom line.
And we will see gross debt – so get as a share of the economy – actually peak lower and earlier than what we were forecasting at MYEFO at the end of the year. So that is a good sign for the budget position. We're not out of the pandemic just yet, and the budget will make some important announcements and include a number of important measures to continue our economic growth going forward. But what we will see is an improvement to the budget bottom line as a result of that stronger economy.
PETER STEFANOVIC:
Okay, you just brought up welfare payments there. And so will you be handing out the one‑off payments to pensioners and low‑income earners?
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Well, you may try to ask me a number of different ways this morning, Pete, that very same question –
PETER STEFANOVIC:
I always do. You can bank on that, Treasurer.
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
You always do. You do. But I'm not going to get on the sticky paper and join the rule in, rule out game just a week a bit away from the budget. The budget will include measures to address the rising cost of living pressures, which are real. But they're also on top of what we've already announced - $30 billion of tax relief in just the last couple of years. We've been able to reduce childcare prices significantly with more than $10 billion a year. And electricity prices, which doubled under the Labor Party, have come down by 8 per cent in the last two years.
Let's not forget, Pete, that Labor's Jim Chalmers, the alternative Treasurer, said the biggest single test of the Morrison government's management of the pandemic would be what happens to jobs and unemployment. And we've seen that just yesterday – under Labor unemployment was 5.7 per cent, under the Coalition it's 4 per cent, and that is even after, you know, the very difficult time that we've incurred as a result of the pandemic.
PETER STEFANOVIC:
From a macro level it's all great. It sounds like the economy is going well. You've got, as you pointed out, 4 per cent unemployment, it's the lowest it's been for some 14 years. But at a micro level, people aren't too fussed about that because of fuel prices, because of grocery prices. They can't afford a decent steak the way things are going at the moment. So how are you going to narrow in and zero in on that and make the cost of living easier for people?
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Well, I'm very conscious that the dinner table conversation right around Australia right now is cost of living. And that is why we'll be taking important steps in the budget to address that. But we've also seen inflation here at 3 and a half per cent. In the United States it's more than double that. It's also higher the United Kingdom, Canada and other countries. But we've seen higher petrol prices as a result of those tensions across Europe, particularly playing out in the Ukraine. And that is flowing through here in Australia. So there are factors that we can control and there are other factors that are outside of our control, like the global oil price.
PETER STEFANOVIC:
Well, I mean the price of oil is going down now. It's the nature of these things. So do you rule out any changes to the fuel excise?
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Again, I'm not going to get on the sticky paper, Pete, on that. That's the subject of much speculation –
PETER STEFANOVIC:
But that points to the fact that a change there might be pointless.
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Well, the oil price has fluctuated. It was up more than a third as a result of the issues in Ukraine. And then it has, as you say, come down a little bit, particularly as China has locked down so many people as a result of COVID that there's an expectation that the economy will start to slow there. Also global growth has been hit pretty hard by events in Europe, and that's going to impact the overall level of economic activity and, therefore, the demand for oil. So there are a lot of factors here at play, Pete, that go into what is the weekly oil price.
PETER STEFANOVIC:
Okay, you mentioned Ukraine there. I noticed a report out this morning suggesting that a second batch of weapons of lethal aid is on its way to Ukraine. Is that true?
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Well, we've already made a significant announcement about providing weapons to Ukraine. And we've also announced a humanitarian package as well. I'll leave those announcements and details to the Prime Minister and to the Defence Minister. But our focus has always been on helping the very brave 44 million people in Ukraine right now who are withstanding a brutal assault on their democracy, on their sovereignty by an aggressive Russian regime.
PETER STEFANOVIC:
Labor – on a final topic here, Treasurer – Labor says it's too soon to respond to these questions that it's facing at the moment about its treatment of the late Senator Kimberley Kitching? Is it too soon for them to respond to these questions?
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Well, it's up to Anthony Albanese and the Labor Party to make decisions about how they're going to handle these matters. But obviously the public reports about the bullying and intimidation are very concerning and distressing. And it compounds the grief for many of Kimberley Kitching's friends, and I certainly count myself as being one of her friends. She was a very strong parliamentarian, a patriot, someone who cared deeply about human rights issues and effected real and positive change through her role in the parliament. But clearly these are quite distressing reports, and I'll leave it up to Anthony Albanese and the Labor Party respond.
PETER STEFANOVIC:
Treasurer Josh Frydenberg, thanks, as always, for your time. Talk to you soon.
JOSH FRYDENBERG:
Thank you.